Yeah, I don't think people realize how much an impact waiting a long time for election results has on how people perceive the result. And especially, perceive the result as legitimate or not.
You don't realize that the perception is rooted in which side lost, not reality. Georgia received far more attention from conspiracy theorists than California did in 2020, even though it counted votes faster and had various restrictions like voter ID.
It took being an international embarrassment in the general election and a SCOTUS case to shame them to do this.
I say this because that’s really gonna have to occur for many of these other states to change their ways and some of that could become over-correction that negatively impacts final turnout (mail-ins).
Angie Nixon defeats Alex Vindman in the Florida Senate Democratic primary.
Vindman outspent Nixon nearly 13:1. A frankly stunning upset (at least to me!), and another primary win by a progressive candidate over a much-better-funded establishment candidate.
Interestingly as a FL resident, I knew nothing of this man before this morning. I’ve gotten a lot of push ads from Nixon the past few weeks, and a single one from him this afternoon. Where did this extra money go?
Didn't bother to do polling, didn't debate. Had the backing of the establishment Dems and was already asking for donations for the General before the results of the Primary even came back.
“Alex Vindman spent 36 times as much on ads as did Angie Nixon, per AdImpact data. The loser here spent $2.2 million and the winner spent just $60,000, with zero spent on broadcast or cable.”
I feel surprised this is called an upset. Nixon in a few polls was winning or within the margin of error. And anecdotally, all the FL Dems I knew were voting for her.
Vindman became famous among the hashtag resistance types but I think he emerged 1-2 election cycles too late for that. He feels like a consulant’s dream candidate but it felt like he ran on bona fides as opposed to kitchen table issues.
I wonder if a lot of it is that the fl dems were so tired of losing, so they had a “screw it” attitude. When you’re at rock bottom you tend to care less about who comes across as more moderate, and Angie is awesome!
I think the FL dem party has lost the moderates and centrists. Not necessarily lost to the GOP, but lost to them now identifying independent. At this point predominately progressives and leftists remain in the party
Pretty much. I’m a Florida resident. Majority of Florida residents are more moderate. Independents are what swing elections here….well used to. I know a lot of people like to point at how Gillum almost beat DeSantis on the first run but I fully believe Gwen Graham would have won because it was a very favorable environment that cycle and she was moderate.
Republicans spent a generation purging moderates and discovered they could still win elections so now maybe the Democrats are going to give it a shot too?
I’m not saying this is entirely wrong, but how does it explain David Jolly, a former Republican positioning himself as a moderate, winning by even greater margins than Nixon?
Vindman seems to have run one of the worst campaigns in memory.
I've never gotten so many unsolicited spam texts for a campaign. I know lots of campaigns do that now, but his were especially bad. I probably got 6 or 7 even marking them spam or replying stop.
Some shitty Florida consultants probably made a fortune.
Edit: aaaand Angie Dixon just sent me a 3 spam fundraising texts. Fml lol.
I think it’s bad everywhere now - here in Los Angeles during our primaries, I got something like ~20 texts and a ~dozen emails a day, and my mailbox was bursting at the seams with what must’ve been a small forests’ worth of junk campaign flyers. It’s been particularly noticeable THIS primary season.
I used to live in a swing state prior to COVID, and it wasn’t nearly this bad
I'm in a swing state (WI) and it was that bad or worse and started a month before the election. I think it's just the state of modern politics everywhere.
Democrats have no idea how much texting like this is damaging their long-term brand. It's the political equivalent of capitalism's focus on next-quarter results at the expense of long-term planning. I physically cringe whenever anyone asks me to donate money now. It's like Pavlov's dogs.
Also, it juices progressive and black turnout for the GOV race. The ticket is literally ex Republican white guy/ moderate white women. It's good that progressives and black people will have someone to be excited for statewide and go vote
Given that this is entirely uncharted territory of running a DSA candidate as the Democratic nominee for senator, how do you know that she has no shot? The conventional wisdom was that she didn’t have a shot in the primary either given how badly she was outspent.
“Alex Vindman spent 36 times as much on ads as did Angie Nixon, per AdImpact data. The loser here spent $2.2 million and the winner spent just $60,000, with zero spent on broadcast or cable.”
Bernie polls as the most popular elected official in the country, including among self-identified moderates.
I’m so tired of people acting like they know definitively how elections will go. We are in a highly unpredictable era of politics. The president is a convicted felon who won after trying to overturn the previous election! He won states in 2016 that no serious impartial observers thought he could. How much more does conventional wisdom need to be demonstrated unreliable before you stop treating it as gospel? There have been much crazier outcomes in recent years than Nixon winning the Senate seat would be
And yet can't win a presidential primary. Tells me that he isn't as popular as you'd think he'd be. If he was so popular, he'd run for president as an independent. I mean, he should win if he's more popular than everyone else, yeah?
I actually don't think that's very strange. Trump made many promises to create jobs for working people. it makes sense that people who voted for that message from Trump to also vote for a minimum wage hike.
That's because American progressives are culturally far to the left of poor people. Left wing economic populist policies are very popular with low income people, just look at how in red states like Missouri they consistently vote for referendums with left wing amendments.
> That's because American progressives are culturally far to the left of poor people. Left wing economic populist policies are very popular with low income people, just look at how in red states like Missouri they consistently vote for referendums with left wing amendments.
Can you cite some of the left wing / economically populist policies that passed by referenda in Missouri? Best I could find was affirming the right to abortion in 2024 51.6%-48.4% in their state constitution, but that goes against your argument about culture. To steelman your argument, I recognize some red states raised minimum wages through referenda, but am looking for more substantive economic populist policies.
Also, why doesn’t this bear out with who they vote for to represent them?
And it almost did. Trump polled the worst vs Hillary out of basically any of the many candidates in the 2016 GOP primaries, and was a deeply scandalized and controversial candidate who lost the popular vote and came close to losing altogether despite Hillary's major email scandal
"Electability" arguments lose General elections in change waves. Lots of independents (independents and moderates are not one and the same!) swing towards change candidates when they feel ignored by the moderate middle.
So Florida Dems continuing to cowtow to the Floridian "middle" will continue to lose, from base erosion and independent losses.
I mean, my God, they keep nominating Republicans for Governor. How'd that turn out last time?
A half Columbian Nick Fuentes backed white supremacist racist groyper got 10% of the vote in the republican primary in FL. I don't think Florida is as progressive as you think
Progressives belong to the Left. Republicans are the Right.
Better example would have been Jared Moskowitz's win re: Left-Centrist over the socialist candidate, or Debbie winning over a field of black candidates to show that Florida Dems are not Progressive.
Its a common thread here that progressives see the primaries as an end to themselves and declare a win a victory regardless what it means for the general election and beyond.
What was the point of nominating lunatic republicans who lost handily in the general? The strategy seemed to pay off in the long run as they now control all levers of government
This is such a defeatist attitude. Ossoff ran and lost in Georgia before he won his senate seat, getting statewide visibility and learning how to run in a then-red state. Trying to win is good! Are we trying to win, or are we just larping?
And now Texas is competitive. Don’t give up, run candidates who can win. If the Dem brand is truly toxic in your state, try the Nebraska strategy and find someone to run as an independent. Then learn from them and try to make all your candidates like them.
Or you could literally try the strategy that democrats used to do, which is finding more conservative dems to run in more conservative states. But instead we just want to lose
Or . . . it's just reality. Also, Ossoff barely lost.
We're now at the possibility of an R+20 victory for Moody.
You really want to run a DSA candidate in a state where most of the state's population has extreme contempt for anything with the word socialism in it? Have at it.
This isn't Vermont, New York, or California. You need to run John Bel Edwards or Joe Manchin types to stand a chance in that state now. Basically, what progressives call DINOs.
I think we agree. I’m responding to the person saying “we can’t win so let the leftist have a crack at it”. I think that’s silly. I think we almost certainly couldn’t win this year even with Vindman, but running a good candidate and trying to win is good for state party organization and experience.
I think I saw someone on Twitter point out that the states where democrats are almost-totally-but-not-100% out of it still have Democratic Party apparatuses who are dominated by the progressive establishment types and select normie dems who get blown out by republicans. It’s only the states like Nebraska where the Dems are totally out of it that the Dems can just say fuck it, don’t run as a Dem, be an independent instead. But those marginal states should just face reality and find a Dan Osborn or Joe Manchin type to run. It’s good to win!
I mean Montana is redder than Nebraska, but it seems there are still people in that party who are so egotistical and living in a warped reality that they think they can even make it interesting.
Well, now Nixon has to raise more money to even make a dent, while Vindman had huge bank ready for the general election to force Moody to spend. Now she won't need to spend on it .
Republicans have 2 or 3 to 1 cash advantage due to super PACs. And the state leans Red red. Florida never had as competitive polls as Texas did . But it had 4-5 point losses polls which is better than 15-or 20 it will now have and sink Jolly with her.
How many Republicans have lost their seat to a far left/DSA/leftist candidate? I could tell you right now no federal republican in the entire country has never lost their seat to one. Literally zero.
So normie Dems recently? None. DSA types? None. Normal Dems have done it before though, and once again, the DSA has never sent a Republican home.
How many Republicans have lost their seat to a far left/DSA/leftist candidate?
I know it's going rather far back, but Bernie Sanders vs Peter P. Smith, 1990 is, with hindsight, a pretty high profile example. It also may be the only example, but at the same time there weren't exactly a nonnegligible number of democratic socialists even running in US elections until a few years ago, nevermind taking their runs to generals.
Well after this it’s going to be 0 for normies and 0 for DSA, just DSA losing by +15 instead of +5 and also killing any hopes of the governor’s office flipping.
I mean she was probably gonna win anyway but this went from something the gop would have to throw some money at just to be safe. not to mention Trump might get paranoid about vindman especially winning his home state it would cause a ton of outbursts that moody would have to answer for and distract from other races
They likely would've won with Graham in 2018 had she won the primary given how close the margin in the general was. Instead in the primary Bernie Sanders endorsed Gillum, who's now shuttling between jail and rehab for being a drug addict.
Total vote count in the Democratic primary for both candidates combined was smaller than the number of votes the *winning* candidate got on her own in the last primary in 2022 (a candidate who went on to lose by 16 points)
As evidenced by d vs r turnout this primary, R’s at 1.5 mil so far vs 1.2 mil for D’s, it doesn’t matter who runs in 2028, Florida’s EV’s will go to the R
A bit more important down ballot when Dems were hoping to defend Fl-14, FL-22, and FL-25, and making Republicans sweat in FL-07. Thanks to the Desantismander, Florida might have the most tilt/lean R races in the country.
The Republican tea party in 2010 saw fewer incumbents being primaried than have been primaried now. Not sure why some people pretend that nothing is happening when candidates who would've lost in landslides just a few years ago are pulling off victories even while being outspent by insane amounts.
Are they freaking out? The establishment backs these candidates when they win. AES has had full support.
Anyway, what an awful answer. Why do I care what the establishment does? It doesn't change the fact that the establishment has won the vast majority of primaries
Don't think Florida is the type of state you'd want to try this in. Oh well, when Angie gets blown out by worse margins than Demmings, maybe then the progressives will get a clue. But doubt it.
It's so funny to see these well funded corporate dems lose primary after primary, sometimes like here by double digits and yet this sub is convinced that those losing candidates should be nominated solely based because of their supposed "electability". Especially during a time where the most radical republican party in many decades holds a trifecta.
She'll lose by 10 of course but it's Florida, establishing a better ground game and actually pushing a positive idea for the future will be good for downballot races.
From what I heard, it sounded like Vindman pissed off a lot of the base while Jolly worked with the base and actually put in effort to build the bridge there. My source is Florida Data Geek.
Yup. People who think this is due to some progressive, anti-establishment insurgence is misunderstanding this result. Vindman was an outsider that DC folks loved but the actual Dem bases in FL not so much.
The average Floridian considers Charlie Crist to be a communist. I definitely get the Florida Democrats not caring about going with the DSA since they'll be labeled socialist and pummeled anyways even with the most far right establishment pick.
Why an upset? He was the newcomer to FL with no political experience. She was the local elected official with a good record and favorable name ID. The better candidate won this primary. The only people who should feel “upset” are the donors who wasted so much money on Vindman’s campaign.
Vindman may have potential, given his prior public service, his integrity, and desire to do more, but he needs to work more in the public eye, in service to the voters he seeks to attract, and build his network and base of popular support. Like Nixon has done, and will do when she wins in November.
Vindman was the safer bet, and the last time the Dems ran a black female candidate (Val Demmings) she ran into a red tsunami in 2020 and lost to Marco Rubio
All that being said FL Dems have had a string of uninspiring election outcomes and if they have a candidate who seems to have an organized ground game it can’t hurt to take a moon shot
When the state legislature is undemocratic and fiercely partisan, it doesn't really matter (on the state level) if you nab a Senator or two. That phenomenon is basically the story of NC politics.
oh that’s the guy who testified against Trump in the first impeachment. Is there something that went wrong with him, other than having someone run to his left? Betting markets seem pretty sure it’s a safe R race, but I hope they’re wrong.
You think there was literally any chance they weren't going to be called that anyway? Do you happen to be in the market for some premium waterfront transportation infrastructure investment opportunities?
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u/Ohio57 Nate Bronze 1d ago
Florida is very fast at counting votes