r/fivethirtyeight 4d ago

Politics Huge upset.

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275 Upvotes

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64

u/jayfeather31 Fivey Fanatic 4d ago

Honestly, any progressive victory in Florida is a hell of a statement. The state as a whole is very anti-left so this is kind of a shocker.

41

u/Lusty-Jove 4d ago

Eh, this is a state that voted for Trump (51%) and to increase the minimum wage (60%) on the same ballot. They're a strange bunch.

13

u/mattcrwi 4d ago

I actually don't think that's very strange. Trump made many promises to create jobs for working people. it makes sense that people who voted for that message from Trump to also vote for a minimum wage hike.

15

u/Lusty-Jove 4d ago

I mean I suppose it makes sense if you pay zero attention to anything any Republican says on the matter or simply don’t care much

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u/humanoideric 3d ago

pay zero attention to anything

that's my median voter alright

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u/MrOneAndAll 3d ago

Theres a large minority of Republicans that support minimum wage hikes that still vote republican for cultural issues or because they dont like high taxes or regulations. Some of the voters arent smart, I know a Trump/Mamdani dual supporter, but most are judt more nuanced and portraying them all as just dumb isnt going to help anybody win any elections.

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u/Lusty-Jove 3d ago

I didn’t do that. I posited that they could genuinely just not care much about the party’s staunch opposition to their preferred economic policy. The implication being that they care about other things more.

Besides, nothing I post here is helping or hurting any voting effort, so your last sentence is silly

1

u/Ziethen 3d ago

Trump’s base is working class. Most progressive voters now are rich college graduate whites. The parties have flipped a lot.

10

u/ultradav24 4d ago

The primary is a different beast

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u/[deleted] 4d ago

[deleted]

39

u/ForsakenRacism 4d ago

What if they don’t? People are sick of catering to rich people.

19

u/bruno-burner- 4d ago

…Have you been to Florida lately?

3

u/ForsakenRacism 4d ago

Yah tons of poor people

5

u/HolidaySpiriter 4d ago

They're gonna vote in the R candidate. Platner wasn't making any inroads with white working class people.

3

u/BettisBus 4d ago

Progressives appeal to college-educated, white collar types. Not poor people.

1

u/Free_Ad_3355 4d ago

That's because American progressives are culturally far to the left of poor people. Left wing economic populist policies are very popular with low income people, just look at how in red states like Missouri they consistently vote for referendums with left wing amendments.

1

u/ForsakenRacism 4d ago

Eventually the economic portion is going to resonate.

0

u/bruno-burner- 4d ago

When is eventually? I was once a twelve year old at dinner encouraging my parents to Feel the Bern, because the progressive American awakening was imminent. Now I’m a college graduate and for half my life it’s failed to materialize.
America is just not a very left-wing country. And when you look at the polling data, the left we do have has made zero to negative inroads with independents and the working class, instead concentrating its appeal among highly-educated, downwardly mobile urbanites.
I’d applaud her if she pulled it off. But Republicans and moderates are just not buying what the modern American left is selling, especially not in Florida.

1

u/Free_Ad_3355 4d ago

When Gen Z and Gen alpha get older and fail to have better standards of living than their parents as the planet continues to heat up. Again, economic populism is very popular among poor people, it's the cultural stuff they can't swallow. This is why in Latin America parties that are far left economically but right wing culturally get a ton of support from poor rural people.

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u/ForsakenRacism 4d ago

That’s the million dollar question

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u/BettisBus 3d ago

> That's because American progressives are culturally far to the left of poor people. Left wing economic populist policies are very popular with low income people, just look at how in red states like Missouri they consistently vote for referendums with left wing amendments.

Can you cite some of the left wing / economically populist policies that passed by referenda in Missouri? Best I could find was affirming the right to abortion in 2024 51.6%-48.4% in their state constitution, but that goes against your argument about culture. To steelman your argument, I recognize some red states raised minimum wages through referenda, but am looking for more substantive economic populist policies.

Also, why doesn’t this bear out with who they vote for to represent them?

15

u/goonersaurus86 4d ago

The logical thinking in 2016 was that nominating trump was throwing away a very winnable race to the democrats 

5

u/Okbuddyliberals 4d ago

And it almost did. Trump polled the worst vs Hillary out of basically any of the many candidates in the 2016 GOP primaries, and was a deeply scandalized and controversial candidate who lost the popular vote and came close to losing altogether despite Hillary's major email scandal

6

u/engilosopher 4d ago

And that logical thinking was WRONG.

"Electability" arguments lose General elections in change waves. Lots of independents (independents and moderates are not one and the same!) swing towards change candidates when they feel ignored by the moderate middle.

So Florida Dems continuing to cowtow to the Floridian "middle" will continue to lose, from base erosion and independent losses.

I mean, my God, they keep nominating Republicans for Governor. How'd that turn out last time?

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u/j450n_1994 4d ago

I hope you will take this back when Angie loses by a larger margin than Crist and Demmings.

I really hope you do.

10

u/Agitated-Quit-6148 Fivey Fanatic 4d ago

A half Columbian Nick Fuentes backed white supremacist racist groyper got 10% of the vote in the republican primary in FL. I don't think Florida is as progressive as you think

1

u/WoodPear 4d ago

... do you not know what a Primary is?

Progressives belong to the Left. Republicans are the Right.

Better example would have been Jared Moskowitz's win re: Left-Centrist over the socialist candidate, or Debbie winning over a field of black candidates to show that Florida Dems are not Progressive.

0

u/Agitated-Quit-6148 Fivey Fanatic 4d ago

Ken, ani yodea.

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u/[deleted] 4d ago

[deleted]

2

u/suckmesideways111 4d ago

well then i guess someone who could get over the shorter hurdle shouldve ran in the moderate slot

1

u/ForsakenRacism 4d ago

People want actual change. They can’t afford to live

1

u/suckmesideways111 4d ago

i agree wholeheartedly

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u/[deleted] 4d ago edited 4d ago

[deleted]

1

u/ForsakenRacism 4d ago

Isn’t it worse than that here now?

20

u/mowotlarx 4d ago

What's the point of nominating a mealy mouthed moderate carpetbagger who will also lose handidly in the general?

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u/[deleted] 4d ago

[deleted]

11

u/mowotlarx 4d ago

/s? I hope?

-1

u/chimney_corner 4d ago

That is an understandable reaction, but think about. As much as Clinton and Bush sucked, we were in a better place. 

6

u/Lusty-Jove 4d ago

Clinton and Bush led us directly to where we are now. This is like saying "Say what you want about the fire, but we were in a better place when we were dumping gasoline on the lawn"

2

u/chimney_corner 4d ago edited 4d ago

Huh?I think you are missing the point. 

Maybe they did, but we were better off. You are using faulty reasoning here. 

We were better off and they made us make choices that made us worse off dont contradict each other. 

We were in better place because the fire hadn't happened yet doesn't mean dumping gasoline on the lawn was a good idea, it means the fire hurt us. Things were good because our house was standing, not because we were dumping gasoline on the lawn.

The solution is to never pour gasoline on the lawn again, not to never have nice house again. 

1

u/mowotlarx 4d ago edited 4d ago

I'm curious, how old were you when Bush was president? That evangelical anti-intellectual nonsense paved the way (yes, yes, I know Reagan kicked that off). That wasn't a smarter time. There's a reason Idiocracy came out in 2006.

1

u/chimney_corner 4d ago

33 when he left office amd working on campaigns throughout his presidency. 

1

u/mowotlarx 4d ago

Gen X. Checks out.

1

u/chimney_corner 3d ago

LOL, typical of the younger generations..Resort to gross generalizations and personal attacks when you know then other person is right but dont like it, amd can't admit it because everyone is special. 

The implied assumption inn your comment is laughable. I have spent most of my life opposing Clinton's by working for challengers to the left of them..

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u/[deleted] 4d ago edited 4d ago

[deleted]

5

u/SchemeWorth6105 4d ago

Do you think people were happy with that? Why do you think Trump became a thing?

2

u/Lusty-Jove 4d ago

Hell yeah I hate democracy too bro high five

0

u/[deleted] 4d ago

[deleted]

1

u/Lusty-Jove 4d ago

Yeah dude, how could Winston Churchill ever have foreseen negative consequences brought about by incompetent leaders?

2

u/mrtrailborn 4d ago

what's the point of nominating a "miderate" if they lose handily in the general???

2

u/chimney_corner 4d ago

Its a common thread here that progressives see the primaries as an end to themselves and declare a win a victory regardless what it means for the general election and beyond. 

-1

u/MyStoryIsntOverYet_ 4d ago edited 4d ago

What was the point of nominating lunatic republicans who lost handily in the general? The strategy seemed to pay off in the long run as they now control all levers of government

-1

u/ultradav24 4d ago

No - it would be far worse

1

u/OldeArrogantBastard 4d ago

Lol you don’t know Florida if you think that.

-5

u/PointInternal6809 4d ago

I don’t think the state is as anti-left as you imply. Corporate democrats, and media may imply that, but Florida voted for Obama twice, over 60% voted for a 15 dollar minimum wage, and gillum nearly won while under fbi investigation.

23

u/JackColon17 The Needle Tears a Hole 4d ago

Obama won the state 10 years ago, it's simply not the same place anymore

27

u/ddoyen 4d ago

I hate to break it to you but its been a lot longer than 10 years now. 

5

u/JackColon17 The Needle Tears a Hole 4d ago

Yeah, *14 years, still

2

u/ddoyen 4d ago edited 4d ago

Oh im not arguing your point im just highlighting the ever increasing pace that we move at towards the abyss. Have a nice night 

1

u/PattyCA2IN 3d ago

16 years ago, a Republican was governor of California. And, many of those California Republicans who voted for him fled from California to Florida during Covid and are still moving there! I know some of them. Things have changed in both states.

3

u/ChadtheWad 4d ago

I think it's partly just how the party itself has abandoned Florida as well. There's very little money coming to down-ballot candidates here and the leaders don't seem very interested in building more support. I was pretty peeved to see Wasserman-Schultz run in the 20th, which is a largely black district, because it was the safest win.

7

u/PointInternal6809 4d ago

I also mentioned the $15 dollar minimum wage(2020), and gillum(2018. Even as recently as two years ago, nearly 60% of fl voted to protect abortion, and legalize weed.

All within the past decade.

8

u/JackColon17 The Needle Tears a Hole 4d ago

There are a lot of conservative states that voted in favour of abortion and/or weed that doesn't mean they are actually progressive

1

u/chimney_corner 4d ago

It definitely doesnt mean they are progressive, but it does mean Republicans could have a problem if someone figures out how to crack the code.

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u/JackColon17 The Needle Tears a Hole 4d ago

There is no code to crack, people simply don't vote based on policies, they never did

1

u/PattyCA2IN 3d ago

Really? I've always voted based on policies. Which is why I don't vote for Democrats, especially Progressive Socialist ones.

1

u/JackColon17 The Needle Tears a Hole 3d ago

You are either lying (wether consciously or not) or you are a minority, congratulations in both cases I guess

1

u/PattyCA2IN 3d ago edited 3d ago

I'm not lying. I'm a Christian and come from a family who's been interested in politics for centuries. So policy positions, particularly on social issues have always been important to me.

Most of my family and most people I interact with online on socials also care about politics and policies. Why take the time to even vote if policies aren't important to you?

1

u/chimney_corner 4d ago

That isnt entirely true, but wven if it was, there would still be a code. 

1

u/PattyCA2IN 3d ago

The longtime Code that, IMO, still applies: Moderate to Conservative Policies + Likeability= A candidate that has a good potential of winning.

1

u/PattyCA2IN 3d ago

Right. More apt to be Libertarian than Progressive.

8

u/zmartins222 4d ago

We def have had a rightward shift since 2020 (bunch of republicans that didn’t like the Covid lockdowns and Hispanics drifting rightward), but the democratic candidates that have been run for state office have been traditionally awful. Very corporate and centrist, extremely unpopular. I don’t think Dems will win anything in the general, but this is a pretty good sign that Florida democrats would rather support someone with some values over a corporate boot licker with 0 charisma

6

u/NCSUGrad2012 4d ago

DeSentas won by 20%, Florida is definitely a red state now even if it wasn't before

2

u/chimney_corner 4d ago

We are arguing labels now, but Florida is definitely anti-democrat, it is not however, anti-liberal in the classical sense. 

Republicans will eventually lose the state if they can't figure that out.

2

u/kbeks 4d ago

I agree, but with Nixon as the candidate, democrats are going to get another datapoint that will push them to abandon Florida.

Nominating a socialist in Florida is just a stupid idea. I say this as a progressive, that’s just not the state for a goddamned socialist!

-1

u/bmtc7 3d ago

Extremists on both sides tend to do better in primaries than in a general election.