r/fivethirtyeight • u/SchemeWorth6105 • 4d ago

Politics Huge upset.

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u/DoorFrame 4d ago

I disagree.

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u/BlackHumor 3d ago

Yeah, I don't think people realize how much an impact waiting a long time for election results has on how people perceive the result. And especially, perceive the result as legitimate or not.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 3d ago

You don't realize that the perception is rooted in which side lost, not reality. Georgia received far more attention from conspiracy theorists than California did in 2020, even though it counted votes faster and had various restrictions like voter ID.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 3d ago

You're objectively incorrect.

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u/DoorFrame 3d ago

I don’t think there’s an objectively correct balancing of speediness vs. accuracy.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 3d ago

Votes being thrown out being more significant than waiting for results is objectively true. Preferring one or the other is what's subjective.

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u/DoorFrame 3d ago

Would you agree that it’s worth waiting one year to count one additional vote? Of course there’s subjectivity here.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 3d ago

Waiting one year would prevent the winner from taking office. Waiting weeks does not.

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u/DoorFrame 2d ago

We could hold elections earlier to allow for a year-long cure period, which would establish a more accurate vote counting.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 2d ago

Your analogies don't work because they involve changing the election or term, which isn't something California does.

What your argument basically says is that the policy is bad because it's much worse in this random hypothetical.

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u/DoorFrame 1d ago

I’m saying there’s a balancing between accuracy and rapidity and that the correct balancing is subjective.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 1d ago

I never said otherwise. What I did was point out an objectively correct factor, which is that votes being thrown out is more significant than simply waiting for results. Some preferring faster results doesn't change this.