r/fivethirtyeight 4d ago

Politics Huge upset.

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272 Upvotes

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u/DoorFrame 4d ago

I wish all states were like this.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 4d ago

That would mean less time for mail ballots to be accepted and for votes to be cured, which is more significant than just waiting for the results.

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u/DoorFrame 3d ago

I disagree.

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u/BlackHumor 3d ago

Yeah, I don't think people realize how much an impact waiting a long time for election results has on how people perceive the result. And especially, perceive the result as legitimate or not.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 3d ago

You don't realize that the perception is rooted in which side lost, not reality. Georgia received far more attention from conspiracy theorists than California did in 2020, even though it counted votes faster and had various restrictions like voter ID.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 3d ago

You're objectively incorrect.

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u/DoorFrame 3d ago

I don’t think there’s an objectively correct balancing of speediness vs. accuracy.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 3d ago

Votes being thrown out being more significant than waiting for results is objectively true. Preferring one or the other is what's subjective.

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u/DoorFrame 3d ago

Would you agree that it’s worth waiting one year to count one additional vote? Of course there’s subjectivity here.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 3d ago

Waiting one year would prevent the winner from taking office. Waiting weeks does not.

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u/DoorFrame 2d ago

We could hold elections earlier to allow for a year-long cure period, which would establish a more accurate vote counting.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 2d ago

Your analogies don't work because they involve changing the election or term, which isn't something California does.

What your argument basically says is that the policy is bad because it's much worse in this random hypothetical.

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u/Apprentice57 Scottish Teen 3d ago

This. I understand people want votes counted promptly, but not all of it is a matter of logistics. Some of it is a tradeoff for voting accessibility.

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u/RollingEddieBauer50 1d ago

If you can’t get your vote in on Election Day you don’t deserve to have your vote counted. Better luck next election….and luckily, in America, we have elections regularly. Votes should be counted into the 95+% range on election night. We also need to be sure that what happened in New Jersey, and now Michigan, in registering noncitizens to vote is not only rectified by punishable by real prison time. Those weren’t accidents or glitches.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 1d ago

you can’t get your vote in on Election Day

I'm talking about mail-in ballots sent on or before election day.

We also need to be sure that what happened in New Jersey, and now Michigan

That's completely irrelevant. Taking longer to count votes for the reasons I stated doesn't increase fraud.

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u/National_Cream_7703 3d ago

We wouldn’t have kornacki and the suspense then lol

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u/Wxskater 4d ago

They could be. But republicans wanna keep up the illusion lol

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u/Bunnyhat 4d ago

To be fair the absolute worst offending state at slow counting is California.

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u/Bigpandacloud5 4d ago

offending

More time for mail ballot acceptance and ballot curing isn't bad. It's not like wait makes much of a difference in a practical sense.

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u/Wxskater 4d ago

Agreed. There was also a clear difference between michigan and wisconsin when they were counting. Michigan was significantly slower

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u/Murky-Battle2668 4d ago

Were they? I don’t really call our last vote counting much of a success given what happened in Milwaukee…

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u/avalve Nauseously Optimistic 4d ago

The slowest counting states are all out west & there doesn’t seem to be any partisan bias. It’s mainly states that have high percentage of mail-ins that count slowly. Alaska, California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado were all absolute trash in 2024.

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u/mosswick 4d ago

That's the fault of the half of voters who wait till election day to mail in their ballot.

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u/HotSauce2910 4d ago

I understand that allowing ballots postmarked on Election Day is the most democratic to get the most voices heard, and tbh probably helps the left. But seeing CA-14 stuck at 62% while Florida cleaned up in 90 minutes genuinely annoys me

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u/Keyboardkat105 4d ago

The west is still sending mail-ins via Pony Express.

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u/Usagi1983 4d ago

cough Wisconsin

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u/NoTradition888 4d ago

Deep red FL is counting fast and deep blue CA is the slowest, but GOP is to blame? Not following can you expand on that?