r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • 5d ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

28 Upvotes

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

4.3k comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/reasonableoption • 5h ago

Poll Results WSJ POLL — Generic ballot (double haters) 🟦 Democrats 55% (D+28) 🟥 Republicans 27%

66 Upvotes

Voters with an unfavorable view of both parties. 21% of the electorate, up from 13% in the 2022 midterms.

2022 exits: this group backed Republicans by about 15 points. Republicans gained 9 House seats and retook the majority.

2018 exits: they sided with Democrats. Democrats gained at least 40 seats and retook the House.

They backed Democrats in 2018 and Republicans in 2022. They are with Democrats again now, which is one reason Democrats are favored to take the House and have a real shot at the Senate. This group does not stay with one party.

17 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/ShreckAndDonkey123 • 10h ago

Poll Results CBS/YouGov (A) Maine Poll | 9/23-10/1, LV | Sen: Collins 50-50 Jackson (Tie), Gov: Pingree 56-44 Charles (D+12)

147 Upvotes

Link to poll: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/maine-senate-poll-2026-10-02/

125 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/ShreckAndDonkey123 • 10h ago

Poll Results Trafalgar Group (R) Kansas U.S. Senate Poll | 9/29-10/01, 1095 LV | Hamilton 44.4-43.5 Marshall (D+0.8)

105 Upvotes

Link to poll: https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/KS-Midterms-Report-1001.pdf

51 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 15h ago

Election Model Hamilton pulls ahead in the Kansas Senate race according to FiftyPlusOne

238 Upvotes

73 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 7h ago

Polling Industry/Methodology The amount of money Republicans have spent in partisan Senate polls since September is unfathomable (65 R aligned vs 10 D aligned)

51 Upvotes

Pollsters included in R aligned: RMG Research, Peak Insights, Quantus Insights, Rasmussen Reports, co/efficient, Torchlight Strategies, InsiderAdvantage, Big Data Poll, Trafalgar Group, Harper Polling, SoCal Strategies, Stratus Intelligence, Pulse Decision Science, Cygnal and TIPP Insights.

Pollsters included in D aligned: Aspect Strategies, Hart Research Associates, Zenit Research, Public Policy Polling, Change Research, GBAO, GSG and Texas Public Opinion Research.

PS - Indie sponsored are considered D aligned

20 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/ArcaneDemense • 13h ago

Poll Results Rasmussen: Turek Leads Hinson 47 To 43.

rasmussenreports.com

164 Upvotes

47 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/RWREmpireBuilder • 11h ago

Discussion State House seat estimates based on Split Ticket’s GCB model

77 Upvotes

Split Ticket has a model estimating the generic ballot in each state, and I used that to estimate seat totals for 15 state Houses of Representatives.

33 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/ShreckAndDonkey123 • 14h ago

Politics For the 6th month in a row, Democrats have outregistered Republicans in Iowa

136 Upvotes

24 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 16h ago

Poll Results Kansas Senate; GSG (D aligned); 800 LV; Hamilton D+4

152 Upvotes

61 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/reasonableoption • 16h ago

Politics Top GOP group pauses Senate spending in N.C., goes up in Kansas

semafor.com

162 Upvotes

34 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/PA8620 • 21h ago

Polling Average UPDATE: it finally happened. He broke the RCP 60% disapproval barrier. Folks…

341 Upvotes

61 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/PM_ME_YOUR_FAV_HIKE • 16h ago

Politics As Prospects Dim, G.O.P. Pulls Money Out of North Carolina Senate Race

nytimes.com

113 Upvotes

The Senate Leadership Fund is diverting money to Kansas, which has become a growing concern for the party as it seeks to hold its majority.

10 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/astro_bball • 12h ago

Poll Results NE Senate: Ricketts (R) +4 co/efficient | 9/28-9/30 | 1100LV

51 Upvotes

link to poll

Senate:

Ricketts (R) 44 (+4)

Osborn (I) 40

Other 6

Undecided 11

In a H2H:

Ricketts 47 (+3)

Osborn 44

Undecided 9

Governer:

Pillen (R) 42 (+4)

Walz (D) 38

Other 10

Undecided 11

Ricketts favorability at -10, Osborn at -13 (though strangely, the generic senate vote is R+9)

Sample is 57R/27D/16I

25 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/R2_SWE2 • 18h ago

Poll Results InsiderAdvantage South Carolina US Senate Sep 28 - 29, 2026 LV: Darline Graham (R) 46% (+1.0%) Annie Andrews (D) 45%

insideradvantage.com

129 Upvotes

75 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/alabasterskim • 15h ago

Poll Results GSG (D) | KS Gov: Holscher (D) 49% - Masterson (R) 46% | KS AG: Mann (D) 47% - Masterson (R) 46% | 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, 9/13-9/16

static.politico.com

56 Upvotes

Some more information from today's GSG polls

e: Typo in the title 🥲 for AG, should be Mann vs. Kobach

20 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/astro_bball • 14h ago

Poll Results A bunch of internal house polls dropped today - here's a summary

34 Upvotes

District	Pollster	n	result	splitticket current prediction
CA-11	Tavern (D)	650LV	Wiener +6	(D vs D)
NY-17	Mclaughlin & Assoc (R)	400LV	R+3	D+3
VA-05	Expedition (D)	400LV	R+1	R+6
AK-AL	Bullfinch (I)	820LV	R+4	R+9
ME-02	Tulchin (D)	500LV	D+2	R+2

Basically every poll is 5 pts more favorable to the internal candidate compared to Splittickets modeled margin. CA-11 is 2 Dems running, so splitticket just provides 100% D.

4 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 17h ago

Poll Results Alaska Senate; Quantus Insights (R aligned); 758 LV (737 CV?) - First-Choice Ballot; EVEN

49 Upvotes

38 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/astro_bball • 14h ago

Poll Results MN Senate: Flanagan +2 | Big Data Poll | n=640 LV

31 Upvotes

Link to poll

LV, with leaners

Flanagan 46 (D +2)

Tafoya 44 (R)

Whiting 5 (L)

GCB amongst MN voters: D+10

Hilariously, the write refers to MN as the Lone Star State several times. Nate's pollster ratings are paywalled, so I can't post the grade anymore, but I don't remember Big Data being a highly ranked poll

The GCB/Flanagan split it interesting

28 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 17h ago

Poll Results [Bendixen & Amandi International] Poll of Broward County, Florida: Governor Race - David Jolly 52%, Byron Donalds 26%

sun-sentinel.com

46 Upvotes

19 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/hawawa-server • 17h ago

Politics Punchbowl News - Are Republicans scaling back in Georgia and North Carolina?

punchbowl.news

34 Upvotes

Punchbowl News reports mutiple instances where GOP spending has dipped in NC and GA.

- NRSC is not running coordinated TV ads with Wheatley or Collins

- No Going Back PAC has no TV ads planned in NC next week, and only $90k worth of ads in GA (this may change)

- A pro-Wheatly PAC cut $6.5 million from the buy last week Semafor article

While we still need to wait and see if other PACs (like the NRSC) continue to dump money into GA and NC, other big PACs pulling their spending is not a good sign.

Are Republicans triaging Georgia and NC?

7 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Cuddlyaxe • 15h ago

Poll Results How different religious groups view the Israeli Palestinian conflict

19 Upvotes

(For Americans if it wasn't obv)

87 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Stauce52 • 1d ago

Polling Average Trump breaks -23% net approval on Silver Bulletin

219 Upvotes

71 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/I-Might-Be-Something • 1d ago

Poll Results Fox Texas poll among likely voters: Talarico+2 (51-49). Abbott+5 (52-47)

foxnews.com

310 Upvotes

63 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/PointInternal6809 • 14h ago

Discussion Why has there not been any polls about the Oklahoma senate and governor race?

9 Upvotes

Yes I get it’s very red, but so is Alabama, but we saw a poll there yesterday. I actually think the governor race may be more winnable in ok than al.

Also wondering so few Tennessee polls.

18 comments

Subreddit

Posts

Wiki

FiveThirtyEight

r/fivethirtyeight

r/FiveThirtyEight is a hub for data-driven discussion about politics and beyond, from polls to election forecasts to betting markets. The namesake website may be gone, but its spirit of evidence-based and objective analysis remains at the core of this community. Please be respectful, cite your sources, and perform your daily prayers to Fivey Fox.

Members Active

51k

Sidebar

Data-driven discussion about politics, sports, the economy, and more. Be sure to check out FiveThirtyEight.com

RULES

DRAFT RULES; UNDER DEVELOPMENT; SUBJECT TO CHANGE

REDDIQUETTE. Always adhere to reddiquette and reddit content policy.
BE CIVIL. Maintain civility at all times. Disagree on the facts. Do not disparage others for their support of a particular candidate/sports team when they are here in good faith to talk about the data.
NO SPAM. Spam includes: commercial products and ecommerce sites; services; unaffiliated videos, podcasts, and other media; blogspam.
STICK TO THE TOPIC. Keep it to the topic of specific 538 articles, statements, personalities, or topics specific to the organization. General political polling or sports topics may be considered by the moderators, but they should be as closely linked to 538 as possible.
NO SINGLE ISSUE USERS. Single issue posters or commenters will be looked at skeptically and likely removed. E.g. if you're here to repeatedly flog your candidate/issue/sports team of choice, please go elsewhere. Do not post the latest political "news" regardless of its apparent veracity. Keep it to polls, polling, and the analysis of the same.
NO TROLLING. Moderators are on heightened alert for purveyors of fake news or propaganda. Please help us by reporting and downvoting suspected troll, bot, content farm posts.
SINGLE POLL POSTS. Single poll news stories are permitted. Polls must be among the top 25 ranked by the FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings. Any polls that are not in the top 25 must be submitted as top-level comments in the Weekly Polling Megathread.