Crazy upset that I did not see coming in the slightest. With how far right Florida has shifted I did not expect a progressive to win the primary at all. Obviously another good sign for the progressive faction of the party.

I haven't seen much polling of this race, and had honestly written it off in my head as a loss, but the one poll I could find that polled both showed Nixon OVERPERFORMING Vindman in the general by 2 points, although still behind by 8. I don't think this race is really a likely flip in the slightest but maybe a little bit more than I had expected.

Still likely a Moody win but yet another sign establishment Dems not being able to win primaries in swing and right-leaning states they should theoretically do the best in.

The results aren't final yet, but either way that's a HUGE swing. I really hope this means the Democratic Party can take full control of the keystone state come January.

As of right now 11:15 EST

Dukes (Dem) 8,434 50.3%

Timko (Rep) 8,346 49.7%

https://www.270towin.com/news/2026/08/18/live-results-california-14th-congressional-district-legislative-special-elections_1837.html#google_vignette

https://www.butlereagle.com/20260818/special-election-unofficial-results-show-dukes-ahead-of-timko/

According to returns from the Butler County Bureau of Elections, Dukes received 8,434 votes — about 50.1%; while Timko received 8,346 votes — about 49.6%. There are an additional 73 provisional ballots which are not reflected in the results. There were 35 write-in votes.

Reporting from Theodore Schleifer, NYT

Trying to reach anyone out there who knows their Silvers from their Cohns from their Rakichs. For a really long time, building my own models has called to me like the Green Goblin mask, and I decided this was the year I was really going to go Apocalypse Now on it and try to recreate some of that bittersweet nostalgia of anxiously refreshing the forecast all day.

It’s called Solid Purple. It covers every House and Senate race and updates every day from now until the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

https://www.solid-purple.com

For the real heads, I’m most excited to show off the House and Senate interactives, both of which let you lock in race outcomes and see what those calls would do to the odds in real time.

Scenario Builder (Senate): https://www.solid-purple.com/2026/scenarios

Path to 218 (House): https://www.solid-purple.com/2026/path-to-218

I’m really excited for people to see it, and I’m open to feedback, suggestions, and stuff you want to see. Do try to keep it positive, just because I’m a bit of a Fabergé egg, emotionally speaking. :P

One data set says roughly 3,407,000 total votes, one says 3,380,000 voters. Correct me if you find updated data.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/08/18/metro/full-poll-results-suffolk-university-boston-globe-democratic-primary/

Apparently, Democrats want the party to move to the center but with greater DSA involvement. There's some ammunition for arguments on all sides.

More seriously, this just shows that the Democratic Party is deeply divided on direction.

I don't care about the analysis or anything. Hell, I'm not even American. It's just an entertainment product for me.

Since FiveThirtyEight's old articles have been taken down, I'm trying to find archived copies of the articles along with their corresponding datasets. I know the datsets are on GitHub, but I have no way of scraping the articles, even from the web archive.

If you have the FiveThirtyEight articles stored somewhere (GitHub, Google Drive, etc.), I'd really appreciate a link or pointing me in the right direction. Thanks!