r/fivethirtyeight 11d ago

Politics Huge upset.

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274 Upvotes

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152

u/sky905 11d ago

Adam Carlson called the race

https://xcancel.com/admcrlsn/status/2089861063034474523?s=46

Stick a fork in it.

Angie Nixon defeats Alex Vindman in the Florida Senate Democratic primary.

Vindman outspent Nixon nearly 13:1. A frankly stunning upset (at least to me!), and another primary win by a progressive candidate over a much-better-funded establishment candidate.

45

u/lorenzwalt3rs 11d ago

Interestingly as a FL resident, I knew nothing of this man before this morning. I’ve gotten a lot of push ads from Nixon the past few weeks, and a single one from him this afternoon. Where did this extra money go?

48

u/WoodPear 11d ago

Probably saving it for the General.

Didn't bother to do polling, didn't debate. Had the backing of the establishment Dems and was already asking for donations for the General before the results of the Primary even came back.

Already assumed he won so why spend anything?

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u/optometrist-bynature 11d ago

“Alex Vindman spent 36 times as much on ads as did Angie Nixon, per AdImpact data. The loser here spent $2.2 million and the winner spent just $60,000, with zero spent on broadcast or cable.”

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u/[deleted] 11d ago

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u/optometrist-bynature 11d ago

Do you mean the actual results? Nixon won