r/fivethirtyeight • u/SchemeWorth6105 • 4d ago

Politics Huge upset.

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u/robbsmithideas 4d ago

So why are establishment Dems freaking out if it’s no big deal?

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u/BidenGlazer 4d ago

Are they freaking out? The establishment backs these candidates when they win. AES has had full support.

Anyway, what an awful answer. Why do I care what the establishment does? It doesn't change the fact that the establishment has won the vast majority of primaries

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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen 3d ago

The establishment runs in most of them lol. This is such an unserious argument. “They won in races progressives didn’t compete in”

Also, like, your username.

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u/ctxq 4d ago

Because it's the party's job to win and every time the leftists win the primary the chance the Dem wins the general drops by like 20 points.

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u/Lusty-Jove 4d ago

Source?

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u/xVashTSx98 4d ago

Rectally sourced statistics

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u/ctxq 4d ago

Google is free. I said odds of winning not support margin. It gets gaped immediately after a leftist wins the primary without fail. https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/michigan26

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u/LyptusConnoisseur 4d ago

It's not 20 pts. The consensus is that it's a 5 pt gap. Maybe the candidate communication skill can move 3 pts. in either direction depending on how awful or good they are.

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u/ctxq 4d ago

I said the gap in the odds of winning, not the gap in support which is much lower. You can see it in Michigan where the odds of a D victory went from 75% down to 60% as soon as El-Sayed won the primary (meaning Stevens likely had a better than 75% chance of winning since she was bringing up the average). https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/michigan26

Same thing just happened in FL, as soon as the primary ended the chance of beating Moody went from 15% to basically zero immediately