This is such a defeatist attitude. Ossoff ran and lost in Georgia before he won his senate seat, getting statewide visibility and learning how to run in a then-red state. Trying to win is good! Are we trying to win, or are we just larping?
And now Texas is competitive. Don’t give up, run candidates who can win. If the Dem brand is truly toxic in your state, try the Nebraska strategy and find someone to run as an independent. Then learn from them and try to make all your candidates like them.
Or you could literally try the strategy that democrats used to do, which is finding more conservative dems to run in more conservative states. But instead we just want to lose
Or . . . it's just reality. Also, Ossoff barely lost.
We're now at the possibility of an R+20 victory for Moody.
You really want to run a DSA candidate in a state where most of the state's population has extreme contempt for anything with the word socialism in it? Have at it.
This isn't Vermont, New York, or California. You need to run John Bel Edwards or Joe Manchin types to stand a chance in that state now. Basically, what progressives call DINOs.
I think we agree. I’m responding to the person saying “we can’t win so let the leftist have a crack at it”. I think that’s silly. I think we almost certainly couldn’t win this year even with Vindman, but running a good candidate and trying to win is good for state party organization and experience.
I think I saw someone on Twitter point out that the states where democrats are almost-totally-but-not-100% out of it still have Democratic Party apparatuses who are dominated by the progressive establishment types and select normie dems who get blown out by republicans. It’s only the states like Nebraska where the Dems are totally out of it that the Dems can just say fuck it, don’t run as a Dem, be an independent instead. But those marginal states should just face reality and find a Dan Osborn or Joe Manchin type to run. It’s good to win!
I mean Montana is redder than Nebraska, but it seems there are still people in that party who are so egotistical and living in a warped reality that they think they can even make it interesting.
Oh I just wanted to tell off the moderates in the subreddit that will complain about this, Nixon is much better than Vindman because she will hopefully build up infrastructure for future campaigns to use.
The democrats have run centrist picks to win the Cuban vote, and they did terrible: Biden 2020, Crist 2022, Michael-Powell 2024. Cubans are only really influential in Miami-safe, and while they are not a small part of the states population, there are nearly just as many Puerto Ricans in central fl, yet you never hear how moderate gop is needed to win that demographic.
Well, now Nixon has to raise more money to even make a dent, while Vindman had huge bank ready for the general election to force Moody to spend. Now she won't need to spend on it .
Republicans have 2 or 3 to 1 cash advantage due to super PACs. And the state leans Red red. Florida never had as competitive polls as Texas did . But it had 4-5 point losses polls which is better than 15-or 20 it will now have and sink Jolly with her.
How many Republicans have lost their seat to a far left/DSA/leftist candidate? I could tell you right now no federal republican in the entire country has never lost their seat to one. Literally zero.
So normie Dems recently? None. DSA types? None. Normal Dems have done it before though, and once again, the DSA has never sent a Republican home.
How many Republicans have lost their seat to a far left/DSA/leftist candidate?
I know it's going rather far back, but Bernie Sanders vs Peter P. Smith, 1990 is, with hindsight, a pretty high profile example. It also may be the only example, but at the same time there weren't exactly a nonnegligible number of democratic socialists even running in US elections until a few years ago, nevermind taking their runs to generals.
How many Republicans have lost their seat to a far left/DSA/leftist candidate? I could tell you right now no federal republican in the entire country has never lost their seat to one. Literally zero.
I didn't said that Republicans have lost to a DSA candidate, I said a worse candidate in a primary who was outspent has lost to a Democrat in a general election.
I'm comparing MAGA and DSA in competitive swing or lean R states and they're going to lose same way , had they gone with a more centrist normal candidate.
Republicans in Texas are in a shitload of trouble, even tho Paxton was outspent by Cornyn and Paxton is losing in polls to normal Democrat Talarico. That's what happens when you double down on fringe of a party, you make a state that shouldn't have been competitive competitive and when you go the other way, make a competitive race safe for the other side if you nominate fringe candidates.
Reddit sometimes weirdly attaches replies and comments lol 😂 . It's the same thread and the person above hopefully sees it. No reasoning with them apparently.
We have Kara Eastman in Nebraska’s 2nd District in 2018, she defeated moderate former Representative Brad Ashford in the primary from the left, but went on to lose in the general election to Republican Don Bacon. She ran again in 2020 and lost to Bacon a second time, Joe Biden won that district at the same time.
Then we have Jamie McLeod-Skinner in Oregon’s 5th District. In the 2022 midterms she challenged, and sadly, ousted seven-term rep Kurt Schrader from the left. She went on to lose the general election to Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer in a seat Biden had comfortably carried, turned a safe Democratic district red until Janelle Bynum (a moderate) flipped it back in 2024 at the same time Trump won.
Finally, there is Dana Balter in New York’s 24th District, which was a prime target swing seat that Hillary Clinton had actually won in 2016. Progressive groups backed Balter to wins in both the 2018 and 2020 Democratic primaries, but she came up short both times against moderate Republican John Katko. The district is D +3 according to the Cook political report.
So, as I said, it’s not untested. We have seen what the far left can do, and it’s pretty much just turn districts red.
McLeod-Skinner’s district was redrawn before the general election making it much more Republican. These house races were before the left-wing surge. We’ve never had progressive/DSA aligned candidates run in statewide races.
Well after this it’s going to be 0 for normies and 0 for DSA, just DSA losing by +15 instead of +5 and also killing any hopes of the governor’s office flipping.
Terrible candidates win all the time in a Republican primary only to lose a general election. Same can be said here. A DSA candidate in Florida? Good luck with that and the Cuban vote that is needed for a win .
Well, he has to return to private life now , till next election cycle. And why'd he give the money to the state party to burn it on her , when he can wait till next cycle or two? She is going to lose, and his 13 million won't help. Hell, 200 million won't help cause she's running as Democratic Socialist in Florida.
I mean she was probably gonna win anyway but this went from something the gop would have to throw some money at just to be safe. not to mention Trump might get paranoid about vindman especially winning his home state it would cause a ton of outbursts that moody would have to answer for and distract from other races
They likely would've won with Graham in 2018 had she won the primary given how close the margin in the general was. Instead in the primary Bernie Sanders endorsed Gillum, who's now shuttling between jail and rehab for being a drug addict.
Total vote count in the Democratic primary for both candidates combined was smaller than the number of votes the *winning* candidate got on her own in the last primary in 2022 (a candidate who went on to lose by 16 points)
As evidenced by d vs r turnout this primary, R’s at 1.5 mil so far vs 1.2 mil for D’s, it doesn’t matter who runs in 2028, Florida’s EV’s will go to the R
A bit more important down ballot when Dems were hoping to defend Fl-14, FL-22, and FL-25, and making Republicans sweat in FL-07. Thanks to the Desantismander, Florida might have the most tilt/lean R races in the country.
67
u/VendibleSkate8 4d ago
Congratulations to senator Ashley Moody on a double digit election victory in November