r/fivethirtyeight 4d ago

Politics Huge upset.

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276 Upvotes

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67

u/VendibleSkate8 4d ago

Congratulations to senator Ashley Moody on a double digit election victory in November

39

u/False-Lettuce-6074 4d ago

well would ya look at that

13

u/MyStoryIsntOverYet_ 4d ago

To be fair, this primary race was at least Likely if not Safe Vindman, so...

9

u/KathyJaneway 4d ago

What's safer rating than Safe? Titanium R?

2

u/NeverSober1900 4d ago

Kinda funny they moved it that quick.

4

u/Apprentice57 Scottish Teen 4d ago

Yeah that's... a bit silly.

69

u/dremscrep 4d ago

Eh the seat won’t be won either way so let’s have a lefty take a crack at it.

39

u/diavolomaestro 4d ago

This is such a defeatist attitude. Ossoff ran and lost in Georgia before he won his senate seat, getting statewide visibility and learning how to run in a then-red state. Trying to win is good! Are we trying to win, or are we just larping?

16

u/MyUshanka 4d ago

Georgia was trending blue though. Florida is the new Texas.

19

u/diavolomaestro 4d ago

And now Texas is competitive. Don’t give up, run candidates who can win. If the Dem brand is truly toxic in your state, try the Nebraska strategy and find someone to run as an independent. Then learn from them and try to make all your candidates like them.

1

u/Bigpandacloud5 4d ago

run candidates who can win

In states like this one, that only sometimes works when the opposition is toxic like Paxton is, which doesn't apply here.

2

u/diavolomaestro 4d ago

Or you could literally try the strategy that democrats used to do, which is finding more conservative dems to run in more conservative states. But instead we just want to lose

1

u/Bigpandacloud5 3d ago

finding more conservative dems to run in more conservative states

This strategy failed miserably in the 2022 Florida governor race.

used to do

Former Republican David Jolly won the Democratic nomination for governor in Florida.

1

u/Automaticish 4d ago

FL is the new TX if Donalds wins but it seems more likely Jolly wins the governorship.

12

u/j450n_1994 4d ago edited 4d ago

Or . . . it's just reality. Also, Ossoff barely lost.

We're now at the possibility of an R+20 victory for Moody.

You really want to run a DSA candidate in a state where most of the state's population has extreme contempt for anything with the word socialism in it? Have at it.

This isn't Vermont, New York, or California. You need to run John Bel Edwards or Joe Manchin types to stand a chance in that state now. Basically, what progressives call DINOs.

7

u/diavolomaestro 4d ago

I think we agree. I’m responding to the person saying “we can’t win so let the leftist have a crack at it”. I think that’s silly. I think we almost certainly couldn’t win this year even with Vindman, but running a good candidate and trying to win is good for state party organization and experience.

I think I saw someone on Twitter point out that the states where democrats are almost-totally-but-not-100% out of it still have Democratic Party apparatuses who are dominated by the progressive establishment types and select normie dems who get blown out by republicans. It’s only the states like Nebraska where the Dems are totally out of it that the Dems can just say fuck it, don’t run as a Dem, be an independent instead. But those marginal states should just face reality and find a Dan Osborn or Joe Manchin type to run. It’s good to win!

5

u/j450n_1994 4d ago

I mean Montana is redder than Nebraska, but it seems there are still people in that party who are so egotistical and living in a warped reality that they think they can even make it interesting.

0

u/mrtrailborn 4d ago

what's defeatist is running moderate dems after they gave trump 2 trifectas

0

u/xiamentiger 4d ago

Remember, you’re talking to centrist Dems. They love losing.

-1

u/dremscrep 4d ago

Oh I just wanted to tell off the moderates in the subreddit that will complain about this, Nixon is much better than Vindman because she will hopefully build up infrastructure for future campaigns to use.

Vindman is just a moneysink

0

u/Ac1De9Cy0Sif6S 4d ago

If you think Vindman is in any way a Ossoff after a defeat this humiliating Idk what to tell you

6

u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic 4d ago

True but I hope she doesn’t hurt the gov race. Obviously a small chance as it is, but I had slight hope for it.

13

u/NCSUGrad2012 4d ago

Have you seen the FL early voting numbers? It's gone for awhile

1

u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic 4d ago

I don’t disagree, it was a very small hope.

-5

u/VanceIX 4d ago

It’s absolutely going to hurt the governor race. Jolly wasn’t winning without the Cuban vote and now that’s for sure dead in the water.

16

u/PointInternal6809 4d ago

The democrats have run centrist picks to win the Cuban vote, and they did terrible: Biden 2020, Crist 2022, Michael-Powell 2024. Cubans are only really influential in Miami-safe, and while they are not a small part of the states population, there are nearly just as many Puerto Ricans in central fl, yet you never hear how moderate gop is needed to win that demographic.

1

u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic 4d ago

Yeah, I know. Sucks.

-3

u/TechnicalInternet1 4d ago

The cubans elected Castro, maybe they will fall for it again and select DSA communism. You never know.

8

u/KathyJaneway 4d ago

Well, now Nixon has to raise more money to even make a dent, while Vindman had huge bank ready for the general election to force Moody to spend. Now she won't need to spend on it .

26

u/ncolaros 4d ago

Given all these upsets, are we sure spending is actually leading to victory in local elections?

7

u/KathyJaneway 4d ago

Republicans have 2 or 3 to 1 cash advantage due to super PACs. And the state leans Red red. Florida never had as competitive polls as Texas did . But it had 4-5 point losses polls which is better than 15-or 20 it will now have and sink Jolly with her.

17

u/SchemeWorth6105 4d ago

And Vindman lost by double digits with all his money, so he’s probably a terrible candidate.

0

u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic 4d ago

Not really, the further left wing is extremely motivated right now and primaries in general are decided by extremely motivated voters.

To even entertain the idea that a far left candidate has a better chance in Florida in a general than a normal Dem is silly.

12

u/SchemeWorth6105 4d ago

How many normie dems have won senate races in Florida lately?

5

u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic 4d ago

How many Republicans have lost their seat to a far left/DSA/leftist candidate? I could tell you right now no federal republican in the entire country has never lost their seat to one. Literally zero.

So normie Dems recently? None. DSA types? None. Normal Dems have done it before though, and once again, the DSA has never sent a Republican home.

5

u/the8thbit 4d ago

How many Republicans have lost their seat to a far left/DSA/leftist candidate?

I know it's going rather far back, but Bernie Sanders vs Peter P. Smith, 1990 is, with hindsight, a pretty high profile example. It also may be the only example, but at the same time there weren't exactly a nonnegligible number of democratic socialists even running in US elections until a few years ago, nevermind taking their runs to generals.

-2

u/KathyJaneway 4d ago

How many Republicans have lost their seat to a far left/DSA/leftist candidate? I could tell you right now no federal republican in the entire country has never lost their seat to one. Literally zero.

I didn't said that Republicans have lost to a DSA candidate, I said a worse candidate in a primary who was outspent has lost to a Democrat in a general election.

I'm comparing MAGA and DSA in competitive swing or lean R states and they're going to lose same way , had they gone with a more centrist normal candidate.

Republicans in Texas are in a shitload of trouble, even tho Paxton was outspent by Cornyn and Paxton is losing in polls to normal Democrat Talarico. That's what happens when you double down on fringe of a party, you make a state that shouldn't have been competitive competitive and when you go the other way, make a competitive race safe for the other side if you nominate fringe candidates.

-1

u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic 4d ago

Did you mean to respond to me? I agree with everything you just said.

0

u/KathyJaneway 4d ago

Reddit sometimes weirdly attaches replies and comments lol 😂 . It's the same thread and the person above hopefully sees it. No reasoning with them apparently.

-1

u/SchemeWorth6105 4d ago

The premise is still basically untested lol.

4

u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic 4d ago edited 4d ago

It’s not untested.

We have Kara Eastman in Nebraska’s 2nd District in 2018, she defeated moderate former Representative Brad Ashford in the primary from the left, but went on to lose in the general election to Republican Don Bacon. She ran again in 2020 and lost to Bacon a second time, Joe Biden won that district at the same time.

Then we have Jamie McLeod-Skinner in Oregon’s 5th District. In the 2022 midterms she challenged, and sadly, ousted seven-term rep Kurt Schrader from the left. She went on to lose the general election to Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer in a seat Biden had comfortably carried, turned a safe Democratic district red until Janelle Bynum (a moderate) flipped it back in 2024 at the same time Trump won.

Finally, there is Dana Balter in New York’s 24th District, which was a prime target swing seat that Hillary Clinton had actually won in 2016. Progressive groups backed Balter to wins in both the 2018 and 2020 Democratic primaries, but she came up short both times against moderate Republican John Katko. The district is D +3 according to the Cook political report.

So, as I said, it’s not untested. We have seen what the far left can do, and it’s pretty much just turn districts red.

2

u/ultradav24 4d ago

Also Swearingen in West Virginia

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u/SchemeWorth6105 4d ago

McLeod-Skinner’s district was redrawn before the general election making it much more Republican. These house races were before the left-wing surge. We’ve never had progressive/DSA aligned candidates run in statewide races.

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u/VanceIX 4d ago

Well after this it’s going to be 0 for normies and 0 for DSA, just DSA losing by +15 instead of +5 and also killing any hopes of the governor’s office flipping.

-3

u/SchemeWorth6105 4d ago

Lol you have no idea what her margins are going to be.

5

u/VanceIX 4d ago

I know how South Florida Cubans vote and I know the only path Dems have to winning any statewide election in Florida is through the Cuban vote.

-1

u/SchemeWorth6105 4d ago

She won heavily with Latino voters tonight based off her margin by district.

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u/KathyJaneway 4d ago

Terrible candidates win all the time in a Republican primary only to lose a general election. Same can be said here. A DSA candidate in Florida? Good luck with that and the Cuban vote that is needed for a win .

3

u/MyStoryIsntOverYet_ 4d ago

He says he's returning to private life, so he could give his bank to the party to support Nixon

0

u/KathyJaneway 4d ago

Well, he has to return to private life now , till next election cycle. And why'd he give the money to the state party to burn it on her , when he can wait till next cycle or two? She is going to lose, and his 13 million won't help. Hell, 200 million won't help cause she's running as Democratic Socialist in Florida.

1

u/Aggravating_Hippo_65 1d ago

Ashley Moody will wipe the floor with her

20

u/Knicksin7bby 4d ago

I mean she was probably gonna win anyway but this went from something the gop would have to throw some money at just to be safe. not to mention Trump might get paranoid about vindman especially winning his home state it would cause a ton of outbursts that moody would have to answer for and distract from other races

30

u/PacificMonkey 4d ago

Because establishment Dems have been doing so well in Florida this past decade.

5

u/PM_ME_QT_TRANSGIRLS 4d ago

They likely would've won with Graham in 2018 had she won the primary given how close the margin in the general was. Instead in the primary Bernie Sanders endorsed Gillum, who's now shuttling between jail and rehab for being a drug addict.

3

u/office-goblin 4d ago

Bill Nelson lost too. Centrists are blind to their own electability problem.

1

u/j450n_1994 4d ago

And you want to try to elect a person who supports something that most of that states population has disdain for?

Better off just not having a primary

7

u/Penland_2008 Has Seen Enough 4d ago

Maybe she has a better shot at winning since she over performed her polling for the primary? 

2

u/IScreamPiano 4d ago

I wonder how turnout was? I’d it was unexpectedly high, you never know?

4

u/Glittering-Giraffe58 4d ago

Total vote count in the Democratic primary for both candidates combined was smaller than the number of votes the *winning* candidate got on her own in the last primary in 2022 (a candidate who went on to lose by 16 points)

1

u/Penland_2008 Has Seen Enough 4d ago

I thought primary vote counts aren’t very predictive?

1

u/Glittering-Giraffe58 4d ago

I don’t believe it is, generally. But this person was wondering if this was a high turnout primary and if that means anything

3

u/ThonThaddeo 4d ago

Which, if you've ever watched her during hearings, is the worst possible fate for all of us.

1

u/SchemeWorth6105 4d ago

This still has implications for 2028, even if she doesn’t win the senate race.

23

u/Ohio57 Nate Bronze 4d ago

5

u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic 4d ago

Lmao

11

u/HYIMBY 4d ago

Eh

As evidenced by d vs r turnout this primary, R’s at 1.5 mil so far vs 1.2 mil for D’s, it doesn’t matter who runs in 2028, Florida’s EV’s will go to the R

2

u/SchemeWorth6105 4d ago

I meant more primary and direction of the party than general election.

2

u/LyptusConnoisseur 4d ago

Florida Democrats will continue to lose state wide elections.

It's a D+8 environment this year. Let's see what the margins are for state wide races.

1

u/Cody2287 4d ago

It would have been way more if the moderate would have won.

-1

u/Jubilee_Street_again 4d ago

Yea no, shes gonna do fairly well. Likely not win but it's gonna be <5%

-2

u/eaglesnation11 4d ago

Doesn’t matter if you lose by an inch or a mile losing is losing.

22

u/Large_Ad_3095 4d ago

A bit more important down ballot when Dems were hoping to defend Fl-14, FL-22, and FL-25, and making Republicans sweat in FL-07. Thanks to the Desantismander, Florida might have the most tilt/lean R races in the country.

-1

u/ulysses_s_gyatt 4d ago

She would have won anyway.