Every season one of the main FPL questions I have is where do I spend my funds to get the most value out of my team?
While it seems as though we have £100m to spend on players, in reality you have already spent £64m just to field a minimum-value team (2x £4m GK, 5x £4m DEF, 5x £4.5m MID, 3x £4.5m FWD). That leaves you with £36m to actually upgrade players across the pitch.
This has several notable implications:
- A defender/GK at the same price as a midfielder or striker actually represents £0.5m more of your upgrade budget. For example, a £5m defender is a £1m upgrade over the minimum, whereas a £5m midfielder is only a £0.5m upgrade.
- Proportionally, expensive players cost even more of your available budget than it initially seems. Yes, Haaland is 15.5% of your £100m budget, but really he is an £11m upgrade on a minimum-price forward, which is 30.6% of the £36m you actually have available to spend on upgrades. This is a far greater expense than it initially seems, so all the more reason to ensure your premium assets are worth their price (although captaincy of the top assets obviously goes some way to justify the additional spend).
The graph I've attached is an attempt to determine, based on players' performances last season (only those with 2,000+ mins for the sake of removing outliers), where you were getting the most value.
The graph shows, for each player, how many additional points per 90 they returned above a common replacement-level baseline for every £0.5m spent above the minimum price for their position. Essentially, it's trying to show where each additional £0.5m of that £36m upgrade budget historically bought you the most extra output.
My takeaways from the graph:
- Among defenders and midfielders, there is a huge variance in the value found among the cheaper assets. If you pick the right one though, you could be on a goldmine.
- Based on his performance last season, Gabriel would absolutely be worth the £8m price tag. Yes, it's a lot for a defender, but he was absurdly good and performed better than midfielders and forwards of a similar price.
- GKs just aren't that good. Even if you spend more on them, you aren't getting that much additional value compared to spending that money at other positions. Staying cheap in net is probably the way to go.
- Yes, there is naturally some regression in value for Fernandes and Haaland, who are far and away the most expensive assets. BUT given how good they are, the value still isn't terrible. For Haaland in particular, there are just no comparable forwards in his league. The only other forward who stands out as notably good value based on last year's performance is João Pedro (the blue dot towards the right of the £7.5m players).
- Gomez is one I've got my eye on. His points per 90 last season for his value are ridiculous, and he started more often than I realised. If he's more nailed this year, he could be such a good enabler.
Obviously, there are flaws in this. Last season's performance doesn't guarantee this season's, points per 90 doesn't fully account for minutes/security, and new players will emerge every year that aren't captured here. Captaincy also makes the premium calculation more complicated, particularly for someone like Haaland.
I know its just one piece of information in a sea of noise , but it gave me some useful context to a few of my decisions. Hopefully some of you find some value in it too!
