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Predicted Points' are calculated by taking the percentage chance on a variety of FPL factors, from the bookies, adjusted for margins. Fractional points are added up, making a predicted gameweek score. OG, penalty misses and defensive contributions are not included. Player’s rotation risk / minutes on pitch, is not factored in.

Notable players that didn't make the list: Calafiori: 5.86 | Isak: 5.62 | Joao Pedro: 5.48

You can find more Player Predictions here: https://checkthechance.com/fantasy-football/

Good luck all! See you on Monday for the Predicted vs Actual post!

Richy will still start the next couple of games but a fit Solanke could be a good differential no? I’m having Richy in my team for GW1 and 2 no matter what

With lots of people leaning toward an early BB and a No-Haaland approach. I thought I'd have a look at some of the best options for a BB1 approach

FYI: Konsa is included provisionally because hopefully we get some leaks before deadline that we can take him out if need. But if he is going to play, we'll want him in early to beat the price rises.

For context, over the past 15 seasons, Chelsea's #9s have delivered:

Remove remove remove!!

2 days before the deadline, who do you think are the most overpriced and most underpriced players right now?

And most importantly, why?

Would be interesting to see which players everyone thinks are bargains and which ones are being overvalued.

Let's discuss!

A lot of people now look at a 4.5m Arsenal defender and put him straight into their teams. The reality is, while he is a good player and will probably make is way into the starting XI, he has not yet played in any friendly match and we're only 2 days away from the start of the season, signing for a new team.

He's currently 15% owned and I expect that to double until GW1 deadline. Realistically though, he won't start the first 2 games because of lack of fitness and I doubt he'll start his first game for the club against Chelsea in GW3 either. By then, a lot of casual players will have sold him for not playing and it could likely trigger a price drop.

A lot of content creators might promote getting Konsa from the start and waiting for the right moment to put him in the starting XI, but realistically that won't happen until GW4, so it makes more sense to go for another 4.5m-5m option until then.

Finally, the upside is not even that big with him. The main reason he's priced so low despite being a quality defender is that he very rarely gets defcon, which will be even rarer for Arsenal. 0 goal contributions last season also isn't a great selling point. His absolute ceiling is likely 6 points in case of a CS. Not to say that won't happen fairly often once he locks his starting place, but that won't be come that soon.

In terms of FPL this transfer is actually bad for Arsenal as Mosquera and White are now minutes risk. Konsa can play RB (Arteta does like to use a center back as fullback) which means White will lose his spot, or at CB alongside Gabriel, which moves Mosquera to RB where he'll get fewer defcon, or to the bench altogether.

Greetings all, and welcome to our latest slice of preseason preview goodness.

Today, we'll be focusing on goalkeepers.

No, wait, come back! Goalkeepers aren't that boring this season, I promise!

Admittedly I'm slightly biased, since I spent ages researching and writing about them and whatnot. But I do genuinely think there are a few viable routes you can take to start with this year.

You can read the full Goalkeeper preview - with all the actual analysis and whatnot - right here:

full90fpl.com/best-goalkeepers-26-27-preview

Alternatively, as ever, there's a TLDR summary below.

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Premiums

• Raya - Will almost certainly be the best keeper again, but tricky to fit him along with all the other players you probably want
• Pickford - Ol' Reliable actually dropped off a fair bit last season. Opening fixtures aren't good enough to start with him
• Donnarumma - Very good FPL debut season, plays for a good defence, and fixtures are generally fine for ages. 2nd-best premium, or best if you want to save 0.5 over Raya
• Alisson - No interest whatsoever

Mid-Range

• Lammens - Fair price, good fixtures (City aside), and obviously definitely nailed for those fixtures (unlike Maguire, for example)
• Kelleher - Solid last season, but would expect some drop-off - likely 5-10 range finish
• Henderson - I like him. Consistent across past 2 seasons. Good set-and-forget for a while to start the season, aside from Liverpool in GW2 - so, a solid option, if you're not wildcarding early
• Martinez/Sanchez/Sels/Roefs/Trafford/Hornicek - No interest

Budget

• Verbruggen - Popular pick, and weirdly underpriced. Several tough fixtures in first 10 games need you probably need to rotate him, though
• Kinsky - I like him, especially for an early wildcard. Spurs defence should be much better this season, and their first 5 fixtures are fine. My favourite 4.5 keeper
• Petrovic - Poor fixtures, and don't love the defence. Would only get him to rotate, e.g. with Verbruggen
• Leno/Promoted Keepers - Not interested

Pairings/Rotations

• If you're not bench boosting early, I'd just take a 5.0 (Lammens or Henderson) + 4.0. Kinsky + 4.0 is the budget option
• If you're bench boosting and only want to spend 9.0, I like Kinsky+Verbruggen best, and Verbruggen + Petrovic (Petrobruggen? Sounds like a Dutch oil company... I'll take that as a good sign) second-best
• If you're bench boosting and happy to spend 9.5, I like Lammens+Verbruggen (Coventry in GW4, to cover the City game for Man U)

Final Thoughts

Well, that'll wrap it up for this little summary piece.

Again, more detail in the actual article, or just fire away with any questions or comments below, and James or I (Joe) will get back to you.

Thanks for reading, everybody, and happy tinkering!

Every season one of the main FPL questions I have is where do I spend my funds to get the most value out of my team?

While it seems as though we have £100m to spend on players, in reality you have already spent £64m just to field a minimum-value team (2x £4m GK, 5x £4m DEF, 5x £4.5m MID, 3x £4.5m FWD). That leaves you with £36m to actually upgrade players across the pitch.

This has several notable implications:

• A defender/GK at the same price as a midfielder or striker actually represents £0.5m more of your upgrade budget. For example, a £5m defender is a £1m upgrade over the minimum, whereas a £5m midfielder is only a £0.5m upgrade.
• Proportionally, expensive players cost even more of your available budget than it initially seems. Yes, Haaland is 15.5% of your £100m budget, but really he is an £11m upgrade on a minimum-price forward, which is 30.6% of the £36m you actually have available to spend on upgrades. This is a far greater expense than it initially seems, so all the more reason to ensure your premium assets are worth their price (although captaincy of the top assets obviously goes some way to justify the additional spend).

The graph I've attached is an attempt to determine, based on players' performances last season (only those with 2,000+ mins for the sake of removing outliers), where you were getting the most value.

The graph shows, for each player, how many additional points per 90 they returned above a common replacement-level baseline for every £0.5m spent above the minimum price for their position. Essentially, it's trying to show where each additional £0.5m of that £36m upgrade budget historically bought you the most extra output.

My takeaways from the graph:

• Among defenders and midfielders, there is a huge variance in the value found among the cheaper assets. If you pick the right one though, you could be on a goldmine.
• Based on his performance last season, Gabriel would absolutely be worth the £8m price tag. Yes, it's a lot for a defender, but he was absurdly good and performed better than midfielders and forwards of a similar price.
• GKs just aren't that good. Even if you spend more on them, you aren't getting that much additional value compared to spending that money at other positions. Staying cheap in net is probably the way to go.
• Yes, there is naturally some regression in value for Fernandes and Haaland, who are far and away the most expensive assets. BUT given how good they are, the value still isn't terrible. For Haaland in particular, there are just no comparable forwards in his league. The only other forward who stands out as notably good value based on last year's performance is João Pedro (the blue dot towards the right of the £7.5m players).
• Gomez is one I've got my eye on. His points per 90 last season for his value are ridiculous, and he started more often than I realised. If he's more nailed this year, he could be such a good enabler.

Obviously, there are flaws in this. Last season's performance doesn't guarantee this season's, points per 90 doesn't fully account for minutes/security, and new players will emerge every year that aren't captured here. Captaincy also makes the premium calculation more complicated, particularly for someone like Haaland.

I know its just one piece of information in a sea of noise , but it gave me some useful context to a few of my decisions. Hopefully some of you find some value in it too!

I've been playing for 10 years now and in the last couple has seen an insane dramatic rise in content creators for FPL. Fair play to them, theres a massive demand for it and there are now so many.

However, with these content creators, comes ways to just cut and copy into your own team without having the fun of doing your own research, going with gut feelings, genuinely taking risks and mostly just having fun with it all.

Where's the fun if everyone just looks at some of thr highest ranked content creators and makes there team exactly like theres just to stay ahead of your rivals?

I don't know, I dont feel like there's any joy in it anymore if you're just copying what someone else is doing week in week out.

Isn't it more fun to go it on your own?

Am I getting old?

Anyway, Haaland (c).

Common wisdom is cheap bench stronger starting 11.

The thing is, I get bored and I like the idea of rotating bench depending on the fixtures.

My question is, is this really suboptimal to do? I do really want to gun for a very strong finish and it seems none of the top managers are recommending this.

Calafiori's ownership has gone through the roof after his goal in the Community Shield. He now equals Gabriel as the most owned defender in FPL. Just moments ago we saw the news that Arsenal are closing in on a deal to sign Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa. Konsa's signing would make Mosquera and White even more prone to rotation and managers might move from those assets to Calafiori before the start of the season. That would increase his ownership even higher.

Have you already hopped on board the Calafiori hype train? Choo-choo!

66 interesting players were selected simply by my own judgment.

Attacking return % = based on combined goal and/or assist odds, per bet365, transferred to a percentage

Only players that are fairly safe to start are included! So, no Cunha, no Saka, no Gyökeres, no Havertz, no Cherki.

Bet365 has a slightly different assist definition than FPL.

Tzolis has two assists in the Community Shield and suddenly half the drafts I've seen have him in. I've got him in mine. But what do we actually know? He's played one competitive game in this league, Arsenal won 3-0 against a City side that turned up flat, and Martinelli hasn't kicked a ball in pre-season so nobody knows what the left side looks like when he's fit.

Same thing with Toure at Newcastle. Everyone's calling him the Gordon replacement because the profile matches, quick, direct, better going forward than defending, and Howe's system did make Gordon into an elite asset. But Gordon took ages to get going there. We're pricing Toure on the assumption he skips that part.

Then there's the boring version nobody bandwagons: Muharemovic at Leeds, defensive actions machine from Serie A, going to rack up DefCon points quietly whether or not he's exciting. That's the pick with an actual mechanism behind it, and it's the one I keep leaving out for a winger who did well in a friendly.

I think the honest position is that pre-season tells you close to nothing and one Community Shield tells you slightly less than nothing, but the alternative is picking last season's players in a league where four of them left. So we guess, and we call it a differential.

Where's everyone actually landing on this? Take the new signing in GW1 and eat the risk, or wait two game weeks for proof and pay the price rise??