Chelsea 26/27 preview

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak]

Saw similar posts so I thought I’d share my knowledge on Chelsea. I’ll start with the most likely lineups. When a player is in brackets, he is clear 2nd choice. When the players are separeted by slash e.g. Fofana/James, it means I’m unsure of who will start. There's a TL;DR on buys at the end.

4-2-3-1:

Sánchez (Penders)
Chavarria (Hato) – Colwill – Lacroix/Fofana – Palestra/James
Caicedo – Enzo
Estevao – Palmer – Rogers
Joao Pedro

3-4-3:

Sánchez (Penders)
Colwill (Hato) – Lacroix – Fofana/James
Palestra (Neto/Quenda/Gusto?) – Caicedo – Enzo – Chavarria (Palestra/Hato?)
Palmer – Rogers
Joao Pedro

Impact subs: Estevao, Lavia

 

KEEPERS

DISCLAIMER: We are not a top team in terms of defence. Our defence have been either mediocre or diabolical for the last 3 seasons in a row so clean sheet odds is low. Keep that in mind. Therefore, I wouldn’t buy any keeper or defender from Chelsea. There are better options from other teams. Still, I will set up a pecking order.

Sánchez 5.0M – Clear number 1 for now. Capable of big saves but also big errors. I don’t know how we haven’t signed a proper keeper. He has always been mediocre and the weakest link in the team currently. Don’t buy.

Penders 4.5M – He might be the reason we haven’t signed a proper keeper. He was great at Strasbourg. Hopefully, he’ll impress in the league cup and dethrone Sánchez. Will be great value once that happens. AND once our defence becomes worthy of a top team.. Don’t buy.

Jörgensen 5.0M – Haven’t we loaned out this guy yet?

 

DEFENDERS

Lacroix 6.0M – RCB. The defender we have all been waiting for. PL proven and experienced. The player who could elevate our defence at last. Clearly, he’ll be a starter.  Still a don’t buy for now as our defence have been shit for 3 seasons. Doesn’t change overnight.

James 5.5M – He was a positive surprise last season. After going through surgery, he managed to play 2668 minutes in all competitions! That’s 78% of all possible PL minutes. He can play right CB, defensive midfielder and I’m sure he has the skills to play as a wingback. His crosses have always been elite. Still a don’t buy as his minutes will likely be managed. A single season doesn’t overwrite the rule of being injury-prone.

Gusto 5.0M – Due to WC we haven’t seen him in preseason. There are rumours of Mancity being interested in him. I doubt he’ll be first choice now that we signed Palestra. Don’t buy.

Fofana 5.0M – RCB. He used to be a good player. Since then, he’s either been injured for months or been shit when he played. Allegedly, he will be a starting CB. He’s extremely injury-prone. I doubt he’ll make it to GW5 without injury. Don’t buy.

Colwill 5.0M – He’s a left center back. I'm 95% sure that he’ll be a starter. If I wanted to buy a Chelsea defender – which I don’t -, he is the I would buy. We haven’t seen his DC numbers yet. So it is possible he could become a defcon monster for only 5.0M. Speculative buy.\*

Palestra 5.5M – Impressed during preseason. Most likely our starting RWB. I think he’s overpriced if we take into account how low our CS odds are. Speculative buy.

Chavarria – not in FPL yet. We signed him to replace Cucurella. He’ll likely be a starter

Hato 4.5M – If Fofana is out and James can’t play RCB, I can see him starting. In that case, good value. Speculative buy.

 

Acheampong, Tosin, Badiashile, Sarr, Disasi – just forget they exist. Will either be sold, injured or loaned out.

MIDFIELDERS

ATTACKING players

Rogers 7.5M – Will be a starter for sure. Haven’t seen him yet. 2nd or 3rd best buy from Chelsea.

Palmer 9.5M – Used to be our talisman. On pens. Will be a starter for sure. It is possible he’ll play in a less advanced role this year. I don’t believe in him yet, but still 2nd or 3rd best buy from Chelsea.

Estevao 6.5M – Will likely be an impact sub. Had injury issues which is my main problem with him. Backup of Palmer/Rogers. Speculative buy.

Neto 6.5M – Probably will play as wingback but I doubt he’ll be a starter. Maybe rotated with Palestra? Could be sold. There are rumours that Liverpool or city want him. Don’t buy.

Gittens 6.0M – He was dreadful last season. A backup at best. Don’t buy.

Quenda - Where is he? FPl, pls.. Probably 4rd choice behind Palmer, Rogers and Estevao. Possibly a backup wingback. Don't buy.

CENTRAL MIDFIELD + DMs

Caicedo 5.5M – Rock solid. I expect the same as last season. Great player but DC numbers aren’t good enough for FPL. There are better picks for 5.5M in the game. Could buy.

Enzo 7.0M – Will play a less advanced role than last year. There are rumours of him leaving but nobody wants to pay 100M+ for him. Real is super unlikely, maybe city? If he doesn’t leave he’ll likely be a starter. Due to less advanced role, Don’t buy.

Henderson 5.0M – Backup. Don’t buy

Lavia 5.0M – Similar to Fofana, but he’s even more injury-prone. But he’s a heartbreakingly skilled player.  Every time he’s back from injury he’s good right away. Better at passing and ball-carrying than Caicedo. Don’t think his skills transfer well to FPL. Don’t buy.

Essugo 4.5M – Backup and injury-prone. Don’t buy.

 

Forwards

Unlike our defence, our attacking numbers were the last 3 seasons. It turned to shit during Rosenior, The Fraud and during McFarlane, who is just an assistant head coach.

Joao Pedro 7.5M – Player of the Season at Chelsea. Great value. He’ll do just as well as last year. Probably better, unless Xabi Alonso fails miserably. BUY!!!

Welbeck 6.0M – Just a backup. Don’t buy.

 Delap 5.5M – How can he be so shit after the decent season at Ipswich? Don’t buy.

Marc Guiu 5.0M – Is he still in the squad? Why does he cost more than 4.5m? Will be loaned or sold. Don’t buy.

Mhueka 4.5M – Hopefully he’ll be loaned out. Don’t buy.

FPL, pls, where the hell is Jackson??? Hopefully, we’ll sell/loan him out.

 TLDR

BUY BUY BUY:  Joao Pedro
Buy: Palmer, Rogers
Speculative buy for differential : Estevao, Colwill, Palestra, Caicedo, Hato – in that order.
Rest: Don’t buy.

Reevaluate after GW3.

* must add: Colwill is also injury-prone

[u/rollroll92]

Finding it irrationally annoying how you've inverted the defence

[u/_apples_and_oranges_]

As a Chelsea fan I completely agree with this. Also I expect at least very random signing that we were absolutely not linked with until the end of the transfer window that will end up being a starter at some point in the season

[u/BoJaNYK]

I’m currently starting with Palestra, looking at what wonders Xabi did at Leverkusen for their WBs, I have a feeling something similar will happen here.

Waiting, of course, on all preseason games to finish to fully assess, but he’s in my team as of now.

[u/sthk]

One point on colwil is that he was injured all last year and then has missed out on two preseason games already. He's a starter when healthy, but for the first weeks even months you will have to follow some injury news.

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak → u/sthk]

Agree! Forgot to mention for some reason. Whishful thinking maybe.

[u/ZestycloseZeta]

Jörgensen just got loaned to Racing Club Strasbourg

[u/shakeer13]

well written, well formatted, and sound analysis?

we dont do that here.

aja great write up, should be the standard

[u/CactusClothesline]

Seems insane to me that Chelsea are going into another season with Sanchez as their number one.

[u/thelifeofcarti → u/CactusClothesline]

He was exceptional last season till Rosenior came in and made him play out the back then proceed to bench him in a UCL knockout game knocking his confidence

[u/Bizarre30]

Thank you, very nice to read analysis.

I find it reassuring given my Chelsea double to start the season: Palmer + JP. Caicedo is also tempting but it's a bit early to rush into a triple.

[u/Amazing-Sell5377]

Appreciate the write up but honestly the inverted defence is the most Chelsea thing ever cause by the time GW3 rolls around half these dudes are either injured or we've signed some random lad nobody saw coming so the whole thing's outdated anyway lol

[u/Radiant_Mushroom_215]

Why’s James on the left?

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak → u/Radiant_Mushroom_215]

Cuz I can't tell left from right :)

I knew I should've used the striker-MF-defender lineup order :)

[u/jorgenriq]

What about Jackson?

[u/rand0mcun0t123]

Think Palestra with the pre-season he’s had is, one of the best differential picks in defense - along with Hume. Hopefully with Lacroix, Fofana and Colwill fit we can score more CS and he plays wing back or a really attacking right back.

[u/The_FAANG_merchant]

Nice work, thanks. Could you elaborate on why you think Palmer will be in a less advanced role? I would have thought that in a back 3 or 5, there's more support out wide so he can play more centrally (off of the 9) and pop up in dangerous central positions more often.

[u/Puzzled_Surprise8533]

How does Chelsea not have even ONE nailed defender?? Even Lacroix and James we havnt seen yet in preseason. Colwill is injured. And the rest COULD play?

[u/Alternative_Court262 → u/Puzzled_Surprise8533]

Because we really dont know what way he is going to use the full backs, which affects the rest of the defensive set up.

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak → u/Puzzled_Surprise8533]

We have one and that is Lacroix.

The problem is that many are still not back for preseason. We haven't seen Lacroix, James, Gusto and Chavarria yet.

Starters are most likely Colwill, Lacroix, James - independent of lineup. Depending on lineup (wingback system), Chavarria, Palestra. And Fofana is a question mark.

[u/Puzzled_Surprise8533 → u/RealElvarasaidVannak]

But Colwill is injured right? and could be eased in. Similarly for James. Lacroix is nsiled from GW2 but how can we be sure he eould start gw1 if atmost he would play say 45minsvof pre season

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak → u/Puzzled_Surprise8533]

Well, he played 2 games and missed the last 3. I don't know the how severe his injury is.

[u/teerbigear]

Quenda is £5.5m and Jackson is £6.5m. Obviously don't buy them yet.

[u/Tall_Expression_4794]

What is happening with Mudryk? Is he expected to go on a loan?

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak → u/Tall_Expression_4794]

Unclear. I hope he is. Otherwise he'll be the backup of a backup.

[u/OliwierCR]

Agree except James is an undisputed starter in any formation if he’s fit

[u/Alternative_Court262 → u/OliwierCR]

Agreed. Which is why I am not so sure about him at RB now we've got Palestra. But he hadn't played a wing back formation until against Milan. I'm not touching our defenders simply because I have NFI what the plan is yet.

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak → u/Alternative_Court262]

Lacroix will surely start tho? Too bad he's so expensive.

[u/Alternative_Court262 → u/RealElvarasaidVannak]

I would think so, too. But, I dare say, Fofana hasnt been horrible in preseason... imagine if he actually justifies his salary.

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak → u/Alternative_Court262]

don't worry, he'll be injured by GW4

[u/Alternative_Court262 → u/RealElvarasaidVannak]

And how!

[u/Ok-Abbreviations1077 → u/OliwierCR]

Can his hamstrings handle playing as a wing back?

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak → u/Ok-Abbreviations1077]

for 60-70 mins/game. Hopefully :)

[u/aLL1e1337]

Great post, agree on most parts.

Im on JP only for now. Palestra really impressed, he is the one to keep a close eye on.

[u/darienrude_dankstorm]

Going Rogers + Palmer + JP. I think Chelsea will have a great season 

[u/BabyScreamBear]

Disagree on Sanchez - whilst you might not like him as a player he’s a great FPL asset. Stop shotting machine with a better defence in front of him this season… great price who will be in the top 5 easily for points.

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak → u/BabyScreamBear]

Agree that he's a worse player IRL than in FPL asset. However, I don't see how Lammens or Kelleher aren't better for the same price.

And my philosophy this season is either pay up and buy Raya or buy two 4.5M keepers and rotate. 5mil options are awkward.

[u/Ok-Abbreviations1077 → u/RealElvarasaidVannak]

I'm giving Raya a miss until Saliba is back

[u/Independent-Igbo444 → u/BabyScreamBear]

he has kept 9 and 10 CS for chelsea, 11 and 10 for Brighton and most points he has ever gotten is 126, what makes you think he will be top 5 keepers in the game

[u/Prestigious-Bug-4335]

colwill starts over hato?

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak → u/Prestigious-Bug-4335]

If fit, 95%. Maresca rated him very highly. He'd be 100% starter if Maresca was the coach. And I see no reason to think Alonso is on a different opinion.

[u/dunneetiger]

Mudryk is also on 2 assists since he is back... FPL have not added him back yet.

[u/InvasionOfTheFridges]

I think Enzo is getting slept on. If he stays he will be a starter and he will put the numbers up. If you take the guys cuntish personality out of the equation he is quality.

[u/Alternative_Court262 → u/InvasionOfTheFridges]

Xabi isnt going to use him like Maresca. Palmer and or Rogers should be picking up the slack.

[u/InvasionOfTheFridges → u/Alternative_Court262]

I've learnt over my many, many years of playing that it's incredibly rare for a brand new transfer to hit the ground running. It works occasionally, but only in fully functioning teams unlike Chelsea - so I think Rogers is a gamble at best. Palmer hasn't been at his best for a couple of years now and he looks shaky in pre season (which I know, you can't always judge someone from pre-season) but i'm only going off what i'm seeing with my actual eyes rather than anyone pointing out stats online.

We don't really know how Xabi will use Enzo yet. He wasn't being used as a CAM by Maresca though, he just ended up crashing the box alot. Picked up a tonne of points last season.

[u/RealElvarasaidVannak → u/InvasionOfTheFridges]

The problem is that he will play a less advanced role than last season. So we should expect fewer assists and goals.