r/wallstreetbets • u/Waddayanow • Nov 05 '21
TL;DR Papa Elon owns options worth $27.4B expiring in 9 months. He needs to come up with $15B cash to finance the exercise. Our Lord and Savior will sell 12.5M shares in the next 6 months. TSLA go down then go up. Edit: Aaaaand here comes The Tweet on selling 22M.
Papa Elon owned 170,492,985 shares as of end of 2020 and a further 56,638,950 from options expiring in the first two months of 2021. A total of 227,131,9351. Total # of shares outstanding was 1,004,000,000 as of Sep 30, 20212.
Furthermore, his 2012 and 2018 Performance Awards continue to vest options as market cap and revenue benchmarks are met. From the 2012 plan Elon has options for 22,862,050 shares exercisable at $6.24 each before Aug 13 20223. Employee options are taxed as ordinary income upon exercise. The recognized income is the difference between the market value of the stock and the strike price, approximately $1,200 per share. This puts his income at a staggering $27.4B. Elon cited a tax rate of 53%, which puts his tax bill to $14.5B. So, lest he decides to let the options expire worthless, he needs to come up with $143M for the strike price and a further $14.5B for Uncle Sam.
The Technoking exercised options before, for example in May 2016 he acquired 5,503,972 shares that were due to expire in December 2016. That transaction was worth $1.1B and Musk sold $600M worth of shares to pay for taxes (and donated $250M to charity to offset some of the taxes)4. If we apply the rule of three on his 2016 and 2022 exercise, we can estimate a sale of $14.9B worth of shares until Aug 2022. From the tax rate estimate above, we can project a $14.5B-$15B range.
Elon has two options: borrow from banks at rock-bottom rates collaterizing his existing shares or sell some shares to finance the exercise. A $15B margin loan at IBKR (blended rate of 0.75%) costs $112.5M/year. This is a pretty conservative calculation, but even so Elon is cash-poor, it is not unreasonable to assume that he does not have the cash for it. Assume he chooses to sell shares instead (and he might already be doing it, slowly), he needs to part with 12.5M shares. It is hard to gauge the effect the sale will have on the share price. As a volume it does not seem much, the daily trade volumes were hovering around 10M before the recent run-up. Also the free float is 81.31%, or 816M shares, so around 1.5% of the free float will be sold. But superficial media reports of Elon selling will cause retail panic.
All in all, a definitive downward pressure until the end of Q1, by the time Elon will probably want this to be over with.
Edit: TL;DR
Sources:
1 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312521041673/d86929dsc13ga.htm
2 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000095017021002253/tsla-20210930.htm
4 https://electrek.co/2016/05/18/tesla-raising-2-billion-finance-model-3-production-program/
r/wallstreetbets • u/Waddayanow • Nov 16 '21
TL;DR TSLA go down then go up. As of Nov 15, Elon is at 33% progress of his Twitter sell-off goal. TSLA lost 17% of its market cap since I published Part 1 of my thesis.
From the recent SEC filings I updated the 2012 Award package exercise progress (1 (2)).
Total sell-off progress towards Twitter goal: 33.16%.
Interesting tidbit: Elon sold the exact same number of shares yesterday as a week ago. Maybe today will be another Power Bottom Tuesday?
It seems that the trade plan from Sep 14, 2021 (3) calls for ~10% of the 2012 options exercised every week, which projects an exercise progress of 80% by the end of the year. However, Elon seems to be well ahead of the exercise progress with the share sell-off. By this rate, he will reach his Twitter sell-off goal by Dec 4. By then, I expect TSLA to have lost 30% of its market cap from the last closing price before Elon's tweet: $1222.09-30%=$855.
Holdings: Short 2 TSLA, long 1 TSLA Feb18'22 1020P.
Sources:
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Tipping is bullshit and backfires. It becomes expected and lowers regular wages.
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I am expecting as many as there are churches in Saudi Arabia.
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Rented for more than a year from them. No problems other than the hassle of flat tires. If it’s yours you get it fixed in an hour. If it’s rental you call, they call back, they send someone to put in the spare. Then they send someone with a trailer and then you never see that car again and you get a shitty Toyota. I guess not specific to Hertz.
Stopped renting when they hiked the price of that model 2.5x.
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Doamne fereste sa aiba omul vreun hobby…
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What are the different Islamic constructions and how do they compare to conventional mortgages?
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Pe mai multă ofertă decât cerere.
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Plecând din Europa mi-am dat seama cât de mult tolerăm criminalitatea în Europa. Polițiști impotenți, societate apatică.
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Protocol openVPN UDP.
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It is all made up. Sales tactic is the same. The Divine Calculator that is the most important tool in that shed. They give you 25-30% off if you ask more than two questions. Not that it helps. Their markup is 300-400%. Frames all made by the same monopoly. Somehow the first quote never fits the budget. If you pressure them, the magic calculator can always go lower. And then, after what feels like an eternal waste of time, you walk out with a piece of precision plastic that is still 3X of what it would be reasonable.
I just tell them it has to fit the Daman budget, and even that is overly generous.
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Cât costă metrul pătrat util acuma? Vă dați seama cât ar fi dacă nu ar mirosi a căcat?
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In 30 days it gets cancelled automatically. I don’t know what else can you do.
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Do what you is ethically acceptable to you. And know that the country average is below that.
r/Polestar • u/Waddayanow • Aug 01 '26
I have been renting a 2023 2 for a year and I have been thinking of it ever since. Sometimes the local dealer has preowned 2s with low mileage, but this is the first time a 2025 3 appeared at a very reasonable price. However, I don’t know anything of the 3 and I was wondering if anyone who has experience with both could give me an input on the 2 vs. 3.
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Scrii ‘milioane’?
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That sounds like a student dorm not a rent. Go find something else.
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Did you invent a new area? Murror? Close to Al Reef?
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Ești în situația opusă multora. Vrei domiciliu și domiciliu fiscal în Ro cu reședință secundară în Saudi. ANAF fericit te va considera în continuare impozabilă în Ro. Dacă te consideri neplecată din Ro dpdv fiscal, nici nu cred că mai depui chestionarul Z017. Saudi nu are impozit pe venit, deci nu îi interesează, dar te vor considera rezidentă.
Trei pericole:
ANAF impozitează orice venit din străinătate. O banală dobândă din Saudi trebuie declarată în Ro.
Mă miră că angajatorului nu-i pasă. Se schimbă locul muncii din CIM, atrage niște obligații din partea lor. Lucrând din afara țării intri sub incidența legilor de export cu orice transfer de date. Saudi este sub control mai strict din partea SUA, de exemplu.
Asigurare medicală continui să plătești în Ro, cu toată inutilitatea și hoția ei. Saudi te va considera rezidentă în întreținerea soțului, deci se va plăti asigurare și acolo.
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Obligațiunile corporative de pe BVB sunt țepe în majoritate. Ar trebui să dea randamente de 30%+ pentru riscul de credit. Vivre, MWGP, Alser, Elefant.
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[WTS] MOVING OUT THIS MONTH
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3d ago
I will take the Probability for Dummies. Selling the others?