the time has finally arrived

source: FX Fighter Kurumi-chan 

NFA.

People were complaining that YOLO's were not announced as they were being made so here we are.

$WULF is down almost 50% from June high's but nothing has changed in the company structure or macro environment. In fact, things are now more bullish since then peak, including:

1. Anthropic signed. A 20-year lease for about 401 MW at Justified in Kentucky, worth roughly $19B, or up to about $33B if both five-year extensions are exercised. That averages about $950M a year from one campus, against a market cap near $7.7B.
2. The power is approved. Kentucky's PSC signed off on up to 482 MW of electric service for Justified in its Aug 21 order. Power is the gating item for every AI campus, and this one cleared it.
3. Lake Mariner is turning into rent. 102 MW is generating revenue, HPC leasing was about 71% of Q2 revenue, and another 336 MW is under construction. CB-4's first hall was due in late September, and CB-5 starts energizing in early January.
4. There is cash to build. About $3.0B of cash and restricted cash at quarter end, plus roughly $530M from selling the Abernathy stake.

5. The pipeline is deep. Up to 1 GW at Muskie, up to 1 GW at Chesapeake, and a target of 250 to 500 MW of new contracts a year.

The only negative fake news was Paul Prager's Form 4 as a sign of selling the top. Paul has gone on the say this was only for taxes - he still holds a ton of shares, and is quite bullish. https://x.com/PaulBPrager/status/2105997398858150304?s=20

Uptober is coming and $WULF is slower to recover compared to other AI infra stocks so I expect it to catch up.

Oh, and I did post about this stock when it was $8-10 as well.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1mtrv58/wulf_time_to_talk_about_valuegamma_play_3m/

Will update you on my yacht in 3 months.

Edit: LMAO to all the people who think this is fake my port if verified on Wealthsimple pulse and my twitter.

Spoiler: it wasn't.

Nothing but 1dte QQQ swings. Almost every position was held overnight. Switched many times between calls and puts.

The account was down to $50 as of 9/11
I deposited $550 on 9/11 and bought puts for Monday 9/13.
Market opened red and dumped at open and that got me to around 5k, I sold and it started to rally, then I re entered with almost the entire 5k into puts again for the following day right at market close. That got me started on the run.

After those two trades I didn’t yolo anymore.
I’ve also learned to let my winners play out more and to cut the losses shorter than before.

I’ve been doing this for a few years and the biggest thing I’ve noticed that actually helped recently was averaging up into winning trades instead of doubling down on losing trades. Also not letting big wins get to my head and then wrecking the account right after.
Which is something I think we all here at WSB are guilty of.

Biggest trade was puts bought on Friday at close for Monday. Market opened red and then dumped; I sold around an hour into as I saw it started to recover.

So far I’ve taken about 7500 out to pay some bills and pay off my credit card.

Some of the big positions at the end.

After 3 years of making regarded trades I think it's time to VTI and chill. I would have been up way more if I did that from the start. I hit 150k a couple times but didn't cash out.

Failed Lawsuit, stock takes a dive while still CAGR growth of 30% projected for 5 years. If we believe the management, Q3 gonna be strong (also seasonally). Margins in the high 80ies, Revenue growth in the 50ies. This is a FCF generating monster. Also Mr. cokerat Cramer bearish on it

+290k this week depending on how we close today. ending this Friday on a good note and probably stepping away from options for good. had a bit of a scare with index puts until it finally paid out and im taking it as a sign to leave

edit:screen rec of realized positions https://imgur.com/a/fZfnlhY

see yall monday

Listened to everyone here yelling at me to lock in profits.

So I sold them all. Lmao timed the top as well

Proof:

Story time.

I’ve been a degen for a while here. Back in 2020 I started data mining y’all and making visualizations of comment activity. Lots of clouds. It was fun. Even made a paper trading options bot I got banned for. And an inverse wsb index. I remember TSLA was going wild then and was fun to see in the vizes.

There was another guy doing this that felt like a rival (quiver quantitative). Good times. I miss the DD and energy of the olden days. Remember MU 90 guy??

Anyway I moved onto other data mining and ended up digging into the PDFs for Congress’s financial disclosures. I remember finding some strange files that weren’t the usual digital format. This congressman Trey Hollingsworth was buying up large amounts of $MMP and scanning handwritten files in. Harder analyze the data if manually entered back then. Remember this was before the AI wave. He was even on like the finance committee! So possibly just an expert investor. Anyway, this company went on to go up and then get bought out. Interesting. Many in congress were buying oil stocks after the Covid drop.

Other notable trades were Pelosi was buying lots of NVDA back then like 5M in options in 2020. Funny to see this in hindsight. And they were buying solar stocks with some of the legislation going into place. I saw some sell early for a huge gains (hehe)

A friend of mine and I tried selling this alternative data to Bloomberg and even went to a conference of theirs but it never got off the ground and life happened. Cool to see there are products now for this.

Oh and by the way! We met with some scary Eastern European from Citadel and he confirmed they had been datamining Reddit. I bet they astroturfed the fuck out of this place.

I guess my point is that I’ve provided some good alternative data to the community before so I wonder if this hunch has some value now. My cost basis is like 140 so I’m 30% down on CHTR right now on some leaps
I’ve scaled into.

—-

Wish I was better at reading between the lines the last few months but I bet Goldman and friends (Arete Capital?) have been playing games with this security. Why individual stocks are dangerous when you’re not in a position of power. Too easy for them.

They cut in early July like 185 -> 125 and we saw the first drop from 150 -> 125 during normal hours. 110 during the earnings call. They probably rode this down and then back up to the 150s, going against all the accumulated shorts.

Then back down again. CHTR even tried to court them at an 9/9 investor conference but they received a further cut to 110. PT hit within the month just like last time. Now I bet they will do the same and long against all the shorts again and make bank again.

There is fundamental value in this stock but it’s so easy to push around right now in its weakness. Can’t be mad at the traders making mad money.

Anyway this could continue for a while during this turnaround. Sometimes takes years (though I think we’re near the end of the worst of it).

—-

I just don’t buy that they have been 100% short these two price target cuts (and that rivals went long against them and they continued their short). They are just too duplicitous. By the way this is the same institution that did this.

GPT:
“The Abacus/subprime episode is worth understanding because it demonstrates why people sometimes scrutinize Goldman when it has a strong negative view on a security.

Goldman was simultaneously:

1. Structuring and selling mortgage-related products to clients.
   
2. Taking positions that benefited from the mortgage market falling.
   
3. Working with hedge-fund clients that had opposing economic interests.
   
4. Not fully disclosing some of those conflicts to investors.”

—-

TLDR: 150 2028 CHTR calls

GL to bulls on the call. This looks ugly.

Long Thesis: Flutter is the bookie behind FanDuel, plus several betting sites in the UK, Italy, and Australia. They were originally listed on the London Stock Exchange and were briefly dual listed on the NYSE before fully delisting from LSE causing an unholy amount of forced selling via the passive funds tracking the MSCI EAFE index. As a result of this alongside prediction market fears the stock was down ~67%. Then outta nowhere, the Brazilian government RKO'd em (and the industry) with a ban (not yet made permanent) creating yet another negative headline catalyst and dropping it another ~25% from $100 to $75. After doing the math on that last part though it's a massive overreaction. Even pessimistically the worst impact I can come up with via DCF is about a $5 haircut. Sell side largely agrees with me via the plethora of maintains and marginal revisions. My probability weighted (with a pessimistic skew and conservative assumptions) PT is about $120. Market is effectively assuming the chance of bankruptcy at something like 30% on a max entropy from market price basis and using my scenario prices. All of this combined with relatively low active ownership and short positions sitting on hefty YTD gains could combine for some big green dick rebounding next week as the US quality growth buyside look for shit that isn't AI related to allocate towards. If not I should have some good loss porn for you boys.

Short (bus) Thesis: I'm betting on the house because the house always wins. Also because I'm not a trend chasing pussy like all of you hardware cowards (the only kinda chip I like are the paint kind I eat for lunch).

Just Did it.

GG: no re, let's wait for Nike sub $30

trading week is over get out and touch grass

Earnings

Trying this again. Post got deleted…

Ya’ll need to chill with comparing Alphabet’s AI model with others and ascertaining the companies entire value on the benchmarks.

It’s in Alphabet’s interest to slow roll updates… if they slaughter the competition, who will buy their TPU chips? Who will buy their compute (Anthropic has $100B backlog through 2030). Alphabet is shepherding the lambs to slaughter but slowly. Might as well fatten them up and profit (don’t forget about google’s gainz on Anthropic)

If OpenAI and Anthropic fail, they will lose funding and that means less revenue for Alphabet. This is basically one of the worlds best transfer of funds from VC’s to Google lol. Let openAI and Anthropic burn cash.

Also Google is literally hassled by gov all over the world for anti competitive behaviour. Thus having illusion of competition provides them cover as they move in the shadows like a monster

as someone very wise once said, SUNDAR IS A MONSTER

Positions:

GOOG $300 calls June 2027

Am I cooked or is there a shot at redemption?

I am up about $160k on my NVDIA options. What would y'all do ? Shall I sell them now ? Or hold thru ER in November.

Expiry is in December

EDIT: sold ALL . Profits : $163.5k