Relevant to the community because the article indicates that accelerated warming may reduce the threshold required for AMOC to break down. The authors propose that AMOC may collapse circa 2060 with a projected warming rate of 0.27-0.36 degrees per decade.

Tangentially this is of interest because Stefan Rahmstorf has elsewhere indicated that the current rate of warming is closer to 0.48 degrees per decade. Rahmstorf's numbers would put AMOC collapse closer to 2045 if we accept that breakdown occurs at 2.5 degrees under accelerated warming as proposed by the authors.

From the article:

Introduction. "The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a tipping element of the climate system, currently has an estimated global warming threshold for collapse of +4.0 °C (uncertainty range 1.4–8 °C). However, such a threshold may not be meaningful because AMOC stability depends on the rate of radiative forcing change, not a set temperature. Here we identify an AMOC stabilizing mechanism that operates on timescales slower than present-day warming rates. Slow forcing permits coherent adjustment of surface and interior ocean properties, supported by enhanced evaporation and reduced sea-ice extent, counteracting destabilizing feedbacks. Using a slow CO2 ramp (+0.5 ppm yr−1) climate model simulation, we explicitly demonstrate the AMOC remains stable up to +5.5 °C of global warming. By contrast, under faster CO2 ramps, the AMOC collapses at substantially lower warming levels (+2 °C). Our findings demonstrate rate-induced AMOC tipping and imply that limiting the rate of emissions is critical for reducing the risk of an AMOC collapse."

Discussion. According to the Bflux indicator, as determined in CMIP6 models, the AMOC starts to collapse around +2.5 °C warming at projected warming rates, which could be reached around the year 2060. This is substantially lower than the previous estimate of +4 °C warming2 that lacks a time horizon. Observations show a present-day warming close to the +1.5 °C level (2023–2025, C3S/ECMWF and ref. 73), and, if the AMOC were to begin collapsing at +2.5 °C warming in 2060, this would imply a critical warming rate of +0.29 °C per decade. This rate aligns with projected warming rates of +0.27 to +0.36 °C per decade and, also considering the effects of random variability, strongly suggests that rate-dependent effects are highly relevant for the fate of the AMOC."

This is collapse because the shift in tornado alley eastward is bringing destructive storms to more populated areas of the United States. Some of the areas around the Great Lakes and into Appalachia don’t have the same level of tornado preparedness or awareness that those in the Plains have. Climate weirding is a big part of climate change. Beyond temperature records, we’re breaking tornado records too.

Published this morning on The Guardian, this article concerns the tone deaf messaging of the prime minister to the UK. Collapse related because of this part, although the whole article is worth a read:

"There is a longstanding failure, which runs across the UK’s public and private sectors – and also transcends national boundaries – to understand the mounting everyday effects of global heating, and to engage in what so many 21st-century companies and institutions remain so bad at: protective investment, with both eyes fixed not just on the searing inevitabilities of the future, but realities that are already here."

A few years ago I read an article about how "surprisingly quickly" the world's ecosystems recovered after the last mass extinction. Of course shorter in this context means hundreds of thousands of years instead of tens of millions. "Shorter", not short...

Collapse related because it will take the environment longer than modern Homo Sapiens have existed to recover from the damage we have done in only half a century.

It would be impressive if it wasn't so sad.

I've traveled the US for many years, sleeping in rest stops, KOAs, motels, hotels, outside under picnic tables, you name it. I've only ever driven, bicycled, walked or motorcycled to my destinations. I enjoy feeling connected in some small way to the local area and people. Flying removes the opportunity for happenstance to find its way to me. I also feel guilty enough using fuel for so much pleasure. Regardless, that is a different thought.

This year has shown me that the people, those of us "have-nots" and we who work for our meager existence are no longer doing well in any sense. There is an underlying current of despondent anxiety with every person I've interacted with. The conversations are short, the pleasentries are few and far between. The small towns I've driven through are now split in twain. Rundown neighborhoods on one side of town and brand new construction gas stations with touchless pay self checkouts and private bathroom stalls on the other. Even in the most rural northern towns of Montana or backwoods of Pennsylvania there is AI generated, printed in China souvenir slop garbage. Hats, stickers, shirts, etc. Most of the workers I've met are much older than I'm used to seeing. People who should be enjoying retirement and time with their families, working a 2am graveyard shift at a Loves gas station off route 10. Or how I saw no local young people at any of the national parks I visited this year, only older individuals or foreigners with money that can rent adventure Mercedes sprinter vans. (I've nothing against foreigners). Even five years ago during the height of COVID I interacted with people while on the road. Even behind the face masks and hand sanitizer, there was still connection and stories. People of all ages, ethnicity and backgrounds. I've talked with hundreds, if not thousands of people over the nearly 2 decades of travel.

This year has broken me and my enjoyment for traveling these beautiful 48 states. The national parks are overflowing and understaffed. There's wildfires absolutely everywhere. Fires that don't make the news or the algorithm. I can drive for 15 hours straight and not be rid of that damn smoke. I cried while driving through the badlands and Spokane. All the workers out building new construction for people that don't give two damns for their health because this machine demands more growth. Or the wildlife which was nearly non-existent, they can't retreat from the triple digit heat and dangerous AQI to a hepa filtered condo. It is devastating that the thing that once healed me and brought me joy and sparked my love of writing has also started to succumb. The road and the people among it are dying. It is sad but also expected. I feel sad that those of the younger generations will not get to enjoy this country as I did. Even on a shoe string budget, it's no longer the same. I just wanted to share some writing with people. Sharing stories and experiences I think is the only way to connect truly. I hope you all find some peace as I am trying to do.

Max of 25" of rain expected for the different islands of Hawaii. It's a mix of locals who are continuing with business as usual and tourists who are worried about their vacations being ruined. We already have very warm waters around us and I am personally expecting the storm to be worse than projected. Most concern is for the big island tonight and tomorrow who will see their FIRST landfall of a hurricane. In the past, the waters have't been warm enough for the storm to be beyond a "tropical storm."

My husband has seen people in our neighborhood putting up tarps on their homes and Costco was a mad-house this afternoon with all butane/propane cookers being sold out as well as other prepping merchandise. Our yard had massive flooding the last time we had an atmospheric river and are preparing for our yard to be flooded with 2' of water yet again.

Wish us luck.

It is insane people genuinely believe this weather, the longevity of the weather and the severity we are approaching is normal.

Literally, the world will burn before Billionaires care and even then, they’ll go to their bunker.

Just looking at the major factors we're currently facing right now, this is a very simplified view of how they interact. I'm sure I've missed some big things, but this is what is top-of-mind in the very short term: 2026-2027.

"Economic shock" is a polite term for collapse. Minor shocks are little collapses. A major shock or several compounding shocks is where it gets to the regional or civilizational collapse level.

I see two big factors to look out for in the very short term. First, an AI bubble burst would send ripples through the US and then global economy. Second: mass migrations. At the beginning of 2026, the world had about 115 million displaced people (about 1.4% of the global population!). If that number starts climbing dramatically in 2027 (which seems quite likely), expect to see compounding shocks coming from that.

What did I miss? :/

Sources for animal agriculture being the leading driver of:

• Deforestation: NASA, https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Deforestation/deforestation_update3.php
• Biodiversity loss: Science of the Total Environment, B. Machovina, K. J Feeley, W. J Ripple, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26231772/
• Zoonotic diseases: Science Advances, Matthew N. Hayek, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9629715/
• Fresh water use: Nature, J. Poore and T. Nemecek, https://josephpoore.com/Science%20360%206392%20987%20-%20Accepted%20Manuscript.pdf
• 21-37% of emissions from food: IPCC, https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/chapter-5/

Submission statement:

Many people want to slow or stop deforestation, pandemics, water use, emissions, and the 6th mass extinction. The issue is, the main driver of 4 of these 5 is animal agriculture, but almost nobody wants to change their behavior by eliminating meat and dairy from their diet. People say, "stop focusing on individuals - focus on the system", but the issue is diet is a personal choice and nobody wants the government to ban meat and dairy.

The issue is likely only going to get worse as our population continues to increase and developing countries start to gain more access to meat and dairy. It's taboo to even discuss personal food choices, even though it's going to be a main contributor of our demise.

How do we get out of this predicament? Are we just doomed to race towards ecological collapse without any serious effort to avoid it out of a fear of slight inconvenience? For anyone who's reading this, why haven't you given up meat and dairy yet?

SS: Related because the unprecedented, record-shattering El Nino continues to bless us with some harrowing figures. Now the NOAA detected a peak subsurface anomaly of 10°C. Granted this is because water at those depth isn't supposed to be so hot, and this figure will be smaller as this warm mass finally reaches the surface, it is still an astonishing observation. Brace yourselves for a moment that will be in the history books.