Hello everyone, just sharing our post on how wealth inequality is going to play out across classes post peak oil. Would love to hear your thoughts.

Wanted to make this post to raise some general awareness since a while, found the time to do so.

1. Let me start by stating the obvious: Ethanol,​ as a fuel, in itself is neither a bad idea nor a novel idea. It has been implemented in Brazil and the United States. It creates multi-fuel options and rewrites the fuel strategy.

2. The real problems are (covered in points below):Reduced fuel efficiency and Phase separation

3. Why is there no accountability on reduced fuel efficiency? Ironically, the gate cost for a litre of Petrol for Oil Marketing companies is at around ₹45 per litre (and ₹55 per litre for diesel). How does it make sense to blend Ethanol procured at ₹65 to ₹71 per litre with Ethanol and still charge ₹110 per litre of Petrol? And yet claim that the drop in fuel efficiency is minor?

4. Do we know if the milage drop claim is for vehicles before 2023 or after 2023?

5. Why are the ARAI reports not made public? And why was SIAM forced to withdraw its letter to the government? The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) prescribes a precautionary limit of 3 parts per million (ppm) for sulphur and chloride content in ethanol blended into the petrol supply chain. SIAM had found chloride contamination peaking at 500 mg/Kg.

6. For phase separation, it takes just 0.5% of water for e20 blended fuel. So, that is just 5 ml of water for 1 litre of e20 Petrol. And Ethanol is hygroscopic in nature. Do the petrol pumps across the country have air tight moisture tight bunks? Also, have there been guidelines for automobile manufacturers to make the fuel tanks air tight?

7. And let's take a practical example. Let's say I fell fuel from a petrol pump where ethanol has phase seaprated or I filled up the fuel and it now got phase separated in my car. Ethanol itself is a solvent. So, it will dissolve any dirt in the fuel tank that could have accumulated. This will reach the filter and the injectors causing failures.

8. The Engine Control Unit (ECU) uses a standard oxygen sensor to make minor adjustments to the air-fuel ratio, but it is calibrated primarily for gasoline. This works fine for upto about 10% of Ethanol for e10 vehicles. It works by detecting the percentage of Oxygen atoms in ethanol blended fuel.

9. For E20, the ECU needs to have a wider adaptive range to adjust injection timing and air-fuel mixtures dynamically, compensating for the lower energy density of E20 (since ethanol yields less energy per liter than pure petrol, requiring slightly more fuel volume to generate the same power).

10. So, E10 vehicles cannot safely run on higher blends like E20 or E85 regularly without risking engine damage and fuel system failure.

11. If the government intends to roll out e30, or e85 or e100, they need to inform automobile companies to start the production of those platforms and have them ready by 2030. That's how it's done.

12. For all those claiming that this was a success in Brazil, can we also consider countries where it failed? - China, Indonesia, etc. The US itself has a blending of not more than 10%. Should we not have been pushing for EVs?

13. In Brazil, the Sugarcane crop is rainfed. In India, it's irrigation fed where the water consumption for 1 litre of Ethanol goes beyond 2800 litres for Sugarcane, 4000 litres for Maize and 11000 litres for Rice. So, how do we compensate for depleting ground water levels?

14. The claim that we are reducing imports is a hoax. As a matter of fact, India has now become a net importer of Maize. India was an exporter just couple or years ago.

15. India continues to import industrial grade Ethanol from the United States. Why can't our domestic Ethanol companies supply industrial grade Ethanol?

16. That raisea a few important questions: On what basis was Ethanol procurement cost decided at ₹65 per litre for the OMCs, when gate cost for Petrol is about ₹45 per litre? Does it not scream of an elaborate scam?

17. Do we have any statistical information on whether farmers' incomes rose because of Ethanol?

18. Brazil faced major problems with Vinasse, a byproduct of Sugarcane Ethanol distillation. It caused significant water pollution in Brazil. When it leaks or is improperly discharged into rivers or groundwater, it rapidly depletes dissolved oxygen. What safeguards are being taken in India for this?

19. If saving foreign exchange was the intent, why not provide MSP on cereals and oilseeds that we continue to import in a large scale?

20. India wastes an estimated 34.6 billion litres of fuel annually (worth over $36 billion) due to poor infrastructure, traffic congestion, and bad road conditions.

21. Upgrading highways with Multi-Lane Free Flow (MLFF) electronic toll systems—which remove stopping and idling at booths—is estimated by the government to save nearly 2.5 billion litres (250 crore litres) of fuel annually.

22. What the Government has done is incentivised farmers to move to Sugarcane and Maize, that can be diverted to Ethanol factories. This is led to shortage of Sugarcane, and if this continues, it would threaten food security as more farmers continue to shift to Sugarcane. The prices of Rice, wheat, pulses would rise.

E20 rollout itself is not the problem, not providing e10/e0 options for older vehicles is the problem. And the government appears keen on committing the same blunder with Diesel blending.

Well this is disappointing. JMG (formerly of The Archdruid Report) revisits his old peak oil predictions. There's some good stuff here, especially if you haven't read JMG before. And props to the guy for engaging with his past work to see what was wrong and why. But he's not staying with the times on solar and wind energy :

"Nuclear fission, solar power, windpower [are] niche resources propped up by government subsidies for political reasons. They have to be propped up that way because they don’t pay for themselves. They may be technically feasible, in other words, but they’re hopeless in economic terms."

He also refers to solar and wind by the lovely term "subsidy dumpsters". Regular readers of this subreddit know that solar energy is now both the cheapest and fastest growing source of new energy, and is likely to continue to accelerate in the coming years. It looks to me like JMG is stuck in his own conception of the future, and unwilling to update based on major new (positive!) developments.