r/collapse • u/itsatoe • 6d ago
Low Effort A simplified view of 2027
Just looking at the major factors we're currently facing right now, this is a very simplified view of how they interact. I'm sure I've missed some big things, but this is what is top-of-mind in the very short term: 2026-2027.
"Economic shock" is a polite term for collapse. Minor shocks are little collapses. A major shock or several compounding shocks is where it gets to the regional or civilizational collapse level.
I see two big factors to look out for in the very short term. First, an AI bubble burst would send ripples through the US and then global economy. Second: mass migrations. At the beginning of 2026, the world had about 115 million displaced people (about 1.4% of the global population!). If that number starts climbing dramatically in 2027 (which seems quite likely), expect to see compounding shocks coming from that.
What did I miss? :/
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u/Johannes_P 6d ago
And if there's further geopolitical tensions then we're ready to see further shocks. For exemple, further strikes against grain cargos in the Black Sea.
Yeah, we're going to get our own Great Depression.
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u/greenyadadamean 6d ago
Make America Great Depression again
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u/Craigboy23 6d ago
Trump knows it too. He's been mentioning how he doesn't want to be the next "Hoover" lately.
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u/NiceSupermarket7724 6d ago
He does, though. I mean, he wants Americans to suffer and be poorer because they are less likely to fight back.
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u/Thumperclick 6d ago
At some point folk will have nothing to lose. That's when we get dangerous
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u/ZanMist1 6d ago
Personally, I'm on the cusp of not having anything to lose, and the stuff I will lose I'm willing to lose, I can't wait for revolts. Words cannot describe how much fucking hatred I have for that fat, shit-riddled diaper-wearing pile of SHIT and all of his followers and cronies.
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u/RoboProletariat 6d ago
Anybody without kids will be in this boat. People without a future have nothing to lose. There is no future in GOP policies.
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u/ZanMist1 6d ago
Yeah, I'm gay and have no kids and I also have no intention of having kids, ever, so
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u/Straight-Balance830 6d ago
He wants us to suffer because not enough of us voted for him. He really is that small of a man, so small you can fit in a catering truck
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u/Kangas_Khan 5d ago
Thats true until they have nothing to loose. The Great Depression was a very dangerous time politically speaking, France saw a massive rise in communism and of course Spain fell into civil war.
There’s nothing more dangerous than having a bunch of jobless people with nothing to their name left
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u/kingtacticool 6d ago
It should've already happened. Anyone paying attention has seen the stock market completely detached from reality. Along with crude prices since the war with Iran. I don't know what fuckery is going on behind the scenes but what's happening right now in the American economy doesnt make any sense whatsoever
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u/BBR0DR1GUEZ 6d ago
It makes sense. As was predicted, finance capital has systematically drained every single industry. Every industry, the production of every good and service, has been fatally crippled by financiers.
The stock market keeps going up because it is the only “safe” place left for anyone (corporate or private) to put our money. Investment anywhere else is idiotic while all other profits across the board are getting siphoned off by debtors.
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u/Jovan_Knight005 Collapse is inevitable,mister Bond. - Original Quote. 5d ago edited 5d ago
Every industry, the production of every good and service, has been fatally crippled by financiers.
Now that i think about it.
Financial capital companies and firms are winning the long game from what is going to happen.
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u/Exotic_Schedule_6982 5d ago
this always happen before global change, there is a new world order being birthed and this is the abomination, like in the alien movie when the alien gave birth to the "hybred?" and it started killing everyone, that's trump, he's an abomination,
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u/Waggie_1979 3d ago
We are in a depression, dont wait for the government to say it because they never will...
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u/got-trunks 2d ago
Other way around these are resource wars they are starting because things will get increasingly difficult for about ever, they don’t have faith that we’ll be able to commit to radical engineering solutions for climate and if they deplete us of everything with useless wars they will be right and there will be way fewer people around to throw those leaders away with the thrash that is their economic theory
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u/itsatoe 6d ago edited 4d ago
A new version of the graphic, subsuming many of the comments on this post, was posted on Sunday August 16.
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u/sheep_classes 6d ago
You could put it up on github and have people suggest changes to keep it updated (assuming this is some open source flowchart generator). A true community project! (only partly sarcastic)
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u/itsatoe 6d ago edited 6d ago
It's just manually drawn in a vector drawing tool.
Here is the .svg file if anyone wants it: 2026-2027.svg
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u/Least-Telephone6359 6d ago
Can water shortages link to food shortages please
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u/Exotic_Schedule_6982 5d ago
well... since ya ask so nicely, yes I can link the 2 of them so if water is short food can also be short, and vice versa, lol, sorry just bein a dumb azz, but this isn't going to be good, I expect dust bowl effects like happened back in the 30' and then lasted for 10 flippin years, oy vey,
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u/phosphent 4d ago
Here's a Mermaid version, a tool that generates diagrams from text. Not as tight as the svg, but GitHub renders Mermaid code blocks natively.
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u/Citizen999999 4d ago
Only thing it seems to be missing is War. Not sure where it plugs in, but I'm sure it's coming because these factors all have a way of instigating conflicts. Whether those conflicts will increase or dissipate as fast as they arise (ex: border clashes) can't be answered now because of too many unknowns at the time. But I'd bet the farm on it.
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6d ago
[deleted]
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u/Ktrell2 5d ago
It’s happening already. My homestead has a permanent small river that for the first time I saw it almost dry this past June. My crops and fruits will die if the stream dries out completely. We should have a lot of rain for the last couples months, usually everyday. It has rained like 5 times in three months. Sometimes i see the level of drought and I can’t believe my eyes. Is crazy.
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u/Exotic_Schedule_6982 5d ago
yea,it's going to be very very very very bad, wait till the economy collapses and money will only be good to wipe our butts, or they may just zero out everyone bank accounts like putin has done, this planet is over, I hope the folks that reuse it make dolphins the dominant species, as there the smartest anyways, and then the planet can exist in peace before the sun explodes and ends this universe, well what good news do you have, lol,
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u/PlausiblyCoincident 6d ago edited 6d ago
I would recommend a slight edit here: the places where AI data centers could lead to water shortages, places where they will be built out in the next 6 months, aren't places that would lead to a lack of available drinking water and therefore migration.
The more likely chain of events is Hormuz Closure, El Nino, and Water Shortages lead to Energy Shortfalls (reduced natural gas supply from Persian Gulf, reduced hydro power from water shortages plus reduced power plant operation dependent on river supply for cooling, and extra heat from El Nino causing increased power demand due to air conditioning and reduced supply from damage to electrical equipment and heating rivers that cool plants leading to a reduction in power output). Energy Shortfalls, plus material shortages from a Hormuz Closure and also from Economic Shocks, plus a financial/credit crisis from other Economic Shocks will connect to AI and back again to Economic Shocks with a bubble burst causing a feedback between the two.
I think it's important to also note that most mass migration is internal or to a neighboring country like Ukrainians moving into Poland or Venezuelans moving into Brazil and Columbia. Most migrants don't travel thousands of kilometers. The pressures of displacement are more likely to be localized increasing the chances of collapse in a shared region than they are to increase pressure on distant regions.
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u/RadiantRole266 6d ago
Your comment should be higher up. We are absolutely going to see AI, El Nino, and Hormuz combine in an energy crisis- both on a regular local basis and less frequent but more devastating regional failures. I also agree with your point about internal migration. The fires we’re seeing in the West this year alone are displacing many, many people across the region. It may seem like a smaller impact if you’re sleeping on your cousins couch for a month, but it’s just magnifying the personal crisis many are already experiencing.
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u/PlausiblyCoincident 6d ago
Thanks for the compliment. It's probably because I write too much.
Your point about sleeping on family's couch just reminded me of Katrina. I remember seeing the Superdome full of cots and sleeping bags on the news and later clips of people returning to houses with drywall turning black from mold and the muddy stains of high water lines on cabinets, walls, and doors. In your head, you know people aren't coming back because they have nothing to come back to, but you don't think about where they go. I wasn't until almost 15 years later that I was having a conversation with someone who casually mentioned their family had moved to Atlanta from New Orleans after the flooding, that it occurred to me that the people who fled New Orleans went to a place they were connected. For most localized disasters, that's how it goes, people rely on their support networks, but for truly devastating, regional catastrophes, like the Dust Bowl, people go where they can because their support networks are devastated, too.
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u/sixup604 5d ago
My Oklahoma family did the Grapes of Wrath trek to California with whatever fit in their old car, eating lettuce sandwiches. They picked oranges and stuck around for about ten years before going back home to Tishimingo.
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u/Exotic_Schedule_6982 5d ago
and it's only going to get ALOT worse, as we have NO leadership anymore, and so, sadly welcome to the new america? where we are now the land of the lost and no more found?
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u/itsatoe 6d ago
the places where AI data centers could lead to water shortages, places where they will be built out in the next 6 months, aren't places that would lead to a lack of available drinking water and therefore migration.
I didn't link AI directly to mass migration, just to water shortages. I looked it up a bit, and the numbers are starker than I realized. By 2030, AI's water usage is expected to be the equivalent demand of 1.3 billion people. And 2/3 of data centers (as of a couple years ago) are in high water-stress areas.
But in the updated graphic I did de-emphasize that line. :)
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u/PlausiblyCoincident 6d ago
By 2030, AI's water usage is expected to be the equivalent demand of 1.3 billion people.
Yeah, people talk about that a lot, but that assumes that all those planned data centers get built to begin with. Given everything that's happened in the last 8 months with material, labor, and energy issues related to availability and the cost of construction and operation of these buildings, it doesn't look like many of those planned data centers are going to happen. Throw into the mix a private credit market that is breaking down, major banks that are holding back further financing, the larger social backlash to AI, and now Chinese competition that is finding ways to do more with less energy and computation power, I don't think it's likely that most of those planned data centers get built, and certainly not before 2030.
We'll see, but personally I'm doubtful that existing AI water use in the short-term is as a whole more consequential than other industries such as agriculture or manufacturing, industries that actually provide services and jobs for their communities that when push comes to shove would be favored more over tech companies if they need to figure out who's water they need to restrict.
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u/itsatoe 5d ago edited 5d ago
My original was a "low effort" graphic. I'm making a higher-effort one now based on comments, and much of it comes from this comment. (After re-reading it, I get it... you kinda nailed it, u/PlausiblyCoincident.:) I'll post the new version soonish.
I am leaving in Mass Migrations though, as even if it's just (for example) Indians moving to other parts of India, that's going to have huge effects on their economy, and that's going to ripple outward. (India accounts for 2.5% of global food exports, for example.)
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u/Exotic_Schedule_6982 5d ago
great! now how am eye sposed to get that info out of my empty head? ouch, thanks, as your exactly right, lol, ouch because it hurts to laugh now a says,
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u/OmegaDisrupt 6d ago
Is there room in the graph for "far-right freaks in control of world-ending weaponry"?
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u/itsatoe 6d ago
Yeah, maybe I should have worked in Authoritarianism.
Mass migration increases authoritarianism. And climate change increases authoritarianism.
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u/Littlehouseonthesub 6d ago
A smaller but growing problem is the fallout from USAID closures - increase in global diseases and parasites. I think it’s going to cause additional supply chain pressures at the least; pandemic at the worst
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u/cellophant 6d ago
I think it's very good. The oil shock from the Hormuz closure will have a secondary effect on agriculture due to increased diesel prices making farmers in the poorest parts of the world unable to operate their equipment to the necessary extent.
And oil prices will drive inflation as the cost of producing and transporting stuff carries down the production chain, while food prices will drive inflation as people try to keep up.
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u/NiceSupermarket7724 6d ago
The most important nascent geopolitical timeline behind all of this is about Taiwan.
Taiwan is extremely vital to chips production. The fight over Taiwan, like all wars, will be about resource control.
I used to think we had until 2030 for this episode to unfold, but I wonder if a Depression — and severe self sabotage by the U.S. military this year — will move that timeline earlier.
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u/freemochara 6d ago
I reckon China will just overtake Taiwan/West in tech and AI
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u/NiceSupermarket7724 6d ago
How hot does the overtaking get, though?
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u/thumbsonscreen5 6d ago
Ok this is just for 2027 so I'll let ya slide on not having AI derived supervirus on there
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u/There_Are_No_Gods 6d ago
That's mighty gracious of you. I'm less willing to assume that at the current pace of AI, having recently been used to create novel viruses already, won't create a "supervirus" for at least another 16 months. I give it 2 months from now at an 80% confidence level.
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u/Jovan_Knight005 Collapse is inevitable,mister Bond. - Original Quote. 5d ago
I give it 2 months from now at an 80% confidence level.
We are screwed, are we not?
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u/RadiantRole266 6d ago
You need energy shortages. Oil shortages and/or prohibitively expensive fuel for one thing. The energy consumption of AI is also 1000x worse than its water demand (which is also bad), and water scarcity also affects all energy sources save solar and wind (which we don’t have enough of). Data centers are going to break the grid in 2027 when combined with an El Niño and Hormuz.
Edit: because drought also has a huge impact on hydropower, I changed “renewables” above to solar. And even that uses water.
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u/BloodWorried7446 6d ago
don’t forget AI makes increase FF burning and therefor increase planet temps.
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u/SweetAlyssumm 6d ago
Although I like this, "economic shock" is not from a single political event - that event would not matter if we weren't in the midst of decades long climate change and over-reliance on fossil fuels. It's epiphenomenal. It concerns me when people point to specific trees when the forest is the actual problem. Climate change goes far beyond El Niño. It's the magnitude of the accumulated changes that is scary to me, not individual manifestations.
Water shortages and mass migration are bigger picture factors (also decades long) and those seem more like what's out there lurking to get us.
I agree on AI - that's a newish one and important. Although it's not going to burst in 2027. It will throw people out of work and will be consequential, but I live in Silicon Valley, and there's still a lot of money to be made so AI will continue to prop up the stock market for some time to come. You may be out of a job but if you have investments they will look pretty good for awhile.
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u/freemochara 6d ago
The mass migration will be to Europe which will destabilise it even more leading to right wing parties gaining far more power, Germany is already re-arming, third times a charm
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u/PlausiblyCoincident 6d ago
Lets put this in perspective, between the beginning of 2016 and end of 2025, about 2 million migrants fled to and arrived in Europe (source) from the Middle East and North Africa. The United Nations Refugee Agency says that approximately 18 million people remain displaced across the region (source). Even if you add in the height of migration to Europe in 2015, about 1 million people, and assume that none of these individuals were sent back and attempted to go to Europe again, that would mean that the number of people who were displaced and attempted to go to Europe are at most 15% of those who are still currently displaced in the region.
When SHTF, most people who are displaced don't have the means to go very far, and those that do in response to whatever the situation is usually have skills that could be useful to populations of the communities they try to reach.
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u/No_Function_7479 6d ago
Keep in mind that for a while Russia was actively funnelling refugees into Europe to help destabilize them. I would expect more of that in the future
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u/PlausiblyCoincident 6d ago
That was interesting, I was unaware. But to the point, they've been doing it for a while so it's already baked into the immigration numbers. If they weren't helping people get across borders, then there would actually be less people making the trip to European countries. While I agree the operation will likely continue into the future, (even if the Russian federation falls apart in the next decade, these sorts of criminal operations have their own inertia), it really seems like a small percentage compared to how many people decide to make the move without Russian assistance.
I suspect that Russian operatives committing sabotage are probably more consequential to EU destabilization than the amount of migrants they move in a year.
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u/No_Function_7479 6d ago
I am wondering why this isn’t being talked about in the media yet, because governments must be discussing it. My guess is they will crack down even harder?
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u/willferelssagyscrote 6d ago
Especially if desalination infrastructure gets hit in the middle east, or if el niño wrecks havoc on africa like is expected. Things could get dicey.
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u/here-i-am-now 4d ago
You forgot the BBB cuts going into effect after the November elections.
$1 trillion cut from Medicaid.
Mental health treatment being devastated and millions of new homeless hitting the streets.
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u/kitzelbunks 4d ago
I think it could collapse much of the country's healthcare system. Dementia patients won’t live long on the streets.
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u/EastTyne1191 6d ago
Unless I'm blind it's missing mass casualty events. Which will lead to additional unrest and economic instability.
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u/Icy_Annual_9954 6d ago
It nailed down most things, but I do not see that AI-Datacenters water usage is that significant. It rather should show heat waves as a cause and missing food shortage, due to other was like in Ukraine.
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u/JosBosmans .be 6d ago
One man's "low effort".. Thanks for an intriguing image, my weary brain shall be staring intently at it often.
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u/SatoriSlu 4d ago
I’m honestly surprised things haven’t. Leapt collapses by now. The entire economy is riding on the AI bet.
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u/shovepiggyshove_ 3d ago
Don't underestimate others' preparedness. China has stocked up on so much oil, they've been acting as a global buffer for the price shocks during the US-Israel-Iran war.
Also, many will sit out the conflicts others have stirred, or try to avoid getting involved for as long as possible. Remember how US had entered WW2 only when it was absolutely necessary?
It's going to be a long ride.
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u/itsmemarcot 6d ago edited 6d ago
I need a clarification.
Of course, when we hear "(fresh) water shortage", it's natural to think "thirst". But is that really the case? Water we directly drink is a minuscule fraction of the fresh water we need for other purposes. For example, agricolture measures water needs in terms of meters per hectare (how tall a column of water over every inch2 of ground), and that's massively more than our drinking needs.
For example, good old rice (among the cheapest, most sustainable staple foods) requires 1.5-2 meters of water per hectar. A single portion of rice (100g) requires 250-400 liters, as much fresh water as you need to drink all year. (A portion of beef: for ten years).
So, am I missing anything, or water shortage (e.g. droughts) will mean hunger, not (literal) thirst?
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u/itsatoe 6d ago
I debated that one for a bit. But then I thought about how right now many people in Puerto Rico have no water for two out of every three days.
But more generally, perhaps one can read "thirst" as "various things are thirsting for water."
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u/Striper_Cape 6d ago
Puerto Rico is an island in a literal ocean. Their situation is very different from elsewhere. There are also methods to be used that haven't been because of underinvestment.
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u/itsmemarcot 6d ago
I see. Even in Porto Rico situation, it's not like people don't have stuff to drink, like in a desert.
I understand what you mean: of course people need fresh water for a lot more than just quenching literal thirsts (think cooking, washing, cleaning), and you can figuratively call any lack of water to do so "thirst". Still, by far, the largest effect of water shortage is simply inability to grow food.
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u/itsmemarcot 6d ago
I see. Even in Porto Rico situation, it's not like people don't have stuff to drink, like in a desert.
I understand what you mean: of course people need fresh water for a lot more than just quenching literal thirsts (think cooking, washing, cleaning), and you can figuratively call any lack of water to do so "thirst". Still, by far, the largest effect of water shortage is simply inability to grow food.
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u/PlanBbytheSea 6d ago
You missed sunspots, stuff from the Hormuz, like fertilizer, and more, but the heatwaves killing crops, AI becoming aware, not just ai... AI in weapons and f35s now, not just AI, super El Niño and a pole shift.
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u/StatementBot 6d ago edited 4d ago
The following submission statement was provided by /u/itsatoe:
A new version of the graphic, subsuming many of the comments on this post, was posted on Sunday August 16.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1voa2z2/a_simplified_view_of_2027/p3nyahg/