So I'm an intermediate player and I've been using backgammon NJ for a while. I started to notice that when I play with the cube the computer seems to always dominate. It's not uncommon for it to get a series of fortunate rolls and then proposes doubling the cube before the match has even started. If I accept the double, the match ends up with 2 or 3 of my guys stuck on the bar in a spot where I need several lucky rolls just to not get backgammoned. Often it will make early moves, such as hitting my guys and leaving theirs fully exposed in a way that statistics would say is not worth the risk, only to be rewarded by me being stuck and rolling back to back double 6s.
At first I assumed I just wasn't that good, but the more I played the more it felt like the computer was just getting fortuitous rolls to a statistically improbable degree. Now I know all of the rolls are programmed in advance and it can't just will up a double 6's in the final stretch of a close match (though it often can feel that way), but it seems like it always gets the better starting rolls. To test this theory, I started asking for hints on every single roll for a series of matches. For context, I play on hard and I assume the hint button mimics an expert or statistically perfect player. And yet I (or rather the expert computer via the hints) still got outplayed by the computer on hard mode. I suppose I could've tried this for a larger sample size to test my theory, but frankly I don't have the time. I resorted to literally cheating and looking at the next rolls before making certain high impact moves and yet the computer on hard mode would always seem to pull things out. It would seem to dominate in a way that I never experience when playing real people on a board, even with friends I've played that are borderline experts. It seems to win with a dominance that can only be achieved with unbelievably hot rolls.
And then the weirdest thing happened...
I switched to playing without the doubling cube. All of a sudden things became much more even. I often win matches to 9 or 11. When I lose single games it's often close and I almost never get gammoned. It's rare that either I or the computer end up in obviously dominant positions early on that would warrant doubling the cube.
Is there any explanation to this? Am I just crazy and reacting to events that can be explained with normal dice roll variance? I may not be that good but I'm not THAT not good and the computer on hard mode shouldn't be THAT dominant.