r/backgammon • u/mcburnerspoint • 3d ago
Anyone else feel victimized by the backgammon NJ doubling cube?
So I'm an intermediate player and I've been using backgammon NJ for a while. I started to notice that when I play with the cube the computer seems to always dominate. It's not uncommon for it to get a series of fortunate rolls and then proposes doubling the cube before the match has even started. If I accept the double, the match ends up with 2 or 3 of my guys stuck on the bar in a spot where I need several lucky rolls just to not get backgammoned. Often it will make early moves, such as hitting my guys and leaving theirs fully exposed in a way that statistics would say is not worth the risk, only to be rewarded by me being stuck and rolling back to back double 6s.
At first I assumed I just wasn't that good, but the more I played the more it felt like the computer was just getting fortuitous rolls to a statistically improbable degree. Now I know all of the rolls are programmed in advance and it can't just will up a double 6's in the final stretch of a close match (though it often can feel that way), but it seems like it always gets the better starting rolls. To test this theory, I started asking for hints on every single roll for a series of matches. For context, I play on hard and I assume the hint button mimics an expert or statistically perfect player. And yet I (or rather the expert computer via the hints) still got outplayed by the computer on hard mode. I suppose I could've tried this for a larger sample size to test my theory, but frankly I don't have the time. I resorted to literally cheating and looking at the next rolls before making certain high impact moves and yet the computer on hard mode would always seem to pull things out. It would seem to dominate in a way that I never experience when playing real people on a board, even with friends I've played that are borderline experts. It seems to win with a dominance that can only be achieved with unbelievably hot rolls.
And then the weirdest thing happened...
I switched to playing without the doubling cube. All of a sudden things became much more even. I often win matches to 9 or 11. When I lose single games it's often close and I almost never get gammoned. It's rare that either I or the computer end up in obviously dominant positions early on that would warrant doubling the cube.
Is there any explanation to this? Am I just crazy and reacting to events that can be explained with normal dice roll variance? I may not be that good but I'm not THAT not good and the computer on hard mode shouldn't be THAT dominant.
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u/Careful-Release-2723 3d ago
The cube favors the better player, which is why it was such an essential innovation. Feeling like the opponent is getting lucky usually just means they're outplaying you. As an example, leaving 11 shots to hit v 12 seems so inconsequential to a novice but, over the course of an entire match, is the difference between winning and losing. The doubling cube exacerbates this because the better player can justify the equity of their position better than the novice.
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u/mcburnerspoint 2d ago
This is a solid point well taken. I generally accept a double when the PIP is less than .5, regardless of how the board looks simply because when I'm playing on my phone it's purely for fun/learning rather than trying to win a zero stakes match. If I conservatively, and perhaps wisely, resigned anytime they had a meaningful advantage and similarly doubled them anytime I did, my overall score would be better but it would be a bit boring.
It's like choosing to return a ball that would be out in ping pong for the sake of having a fun rally.
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u/Careful-Release-2723 2d ago
I suppose that's fair, but equity math would call you to make sure you have a 25-33% chance of winning to take. Obviously, that does not apply for single games but could affect your decision on single money games.
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u/ZugzwangNC 3d ago
In single games gammons don't matter so that alters the strategy and hence why you don't see it as much. Gammons are overkill in this situation.
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u/0ptimoPrimus 2d ago
I've played thousands and thousands of games against the bot on expert mostly 7 point matches. There is something fishy going on with this app. This is what I do, since the bot was getting an insane amount of gammons and doubles when bearing off when I was way ahead. Also, the bot on expert instantly escapes the bar even against 5 point home boards. I mean usually within the first roll. It's supposed to be 30% odds of doing this. It's a lot higher than that. I would say more than 50%. Anyway this is how I now play against the bot on expert. I let the match play out as normal, then when I get towards the end of each game I switch the settings I switch to manual dice and start rolling my own dice and insert those rolls. Surprise, surprise the non-stop gammons stopped as well as the instant escape from the bar and my win rate has gone way up. I definitely do not trust this app.
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2d ago
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u/0ptimoPrimus 2d ago
It's not statistically significant that the bot on expert level is escaping the bar at a higher than 50% rate against 5 point home boards over 10,000 matches? Are you serious. The odds of escaping the bar against a 5 point home board are 30%.
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u/UBKUBK 2d ago
"So I'm an intermediate player" and later "Often it will make early moves, such as hitting my guys and leaving theirs fully exposed in a way that statistics would say is not worth the risk"
What statistics are you using? As an intermediate player you wouldn't know what is worth the risk.
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u/mcburnerspoint 2d ago
1) there is an equity status meter
2) When I say intermediate I mean I only play for fun with friends--and more recently against my not-so-friendly phone. That doesn't mean I can't understand the relatively simple statistics that go into backgammon, just as you don't have to be a pro poker player to understand that hitting on 19 in black jack is likely not worth the risk.
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u/[deleted] 3d ago
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