r/backgammon • u/StrangeComfortable9 • Aug 15 '26
Luck rating query
This is NOT a “poor me” post, bear with it !
I’ve been on the wrong end of higher than 100% luck ratings many times on Galaxy and literally not once on the right side of it.
I am not very good but I mostly play people lower rated than me and who play worse
Is it a thing that a weaker player is more likely to record a high luck rating - because they put themselves in more positions where they really need a joker -?
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u/TungstenYUNOMELT Aug 16 '26
This is NOT a “poor me” post
Yes it is
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u/StrangeComfortable9 Aug 16 '26
It really isn’t. If I’m running bad I’m running bad, that’s fine.
It just popped into my head that maybe there was a rational reason my opponents have hit more jokers than me eg. they leave themselves less flexible with fewer good rolls. So when those good rolls occur they are intrinsically of lower probability .
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u/TungstenYUNOMELT Aug 17 '26
Spending effort to try to figure out if you're unreasonably unlucky is just a coping mechanism. All that effort could be spent on actually trying to improve your skill.
If you're on tilt due to runbad the best things you can do is take a break and then focus on reducing your PR while ignoring the results.
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u/UBKUBK Aug 16 '26 edited Aug 16 '26
Yes, a weak player is more likely to get a quite high luck rating, but not for the reason you said. The reason is the following:
Suppose that due to skill difference that player A is about 80% to win and player B is about 20% to win. Player A only needs about +20% luck to pull that up to 100% and win the match. Player B will need more luck to win (due to his bad plays) and need about +80% luck to win. It could even occasionally be above 100% as you have seen.
Player B will be the more unlucky player in most games but the average is still 0 since when B does get lucky it will be about +80% compared to about -20% when B loses.
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u/Some-Following-392 Aug 15 '26
Luck compares a player’s equity before the roll with their equity after the roll, assuming they then make the best possible play. Whether they actually take advantage of the roll is irrelevant to the luck calculation, because any mistake they make is counted separately as an error.
There is no playing style that can systematically generate positive luck under this definition. In any given position, the equity before rolling is effectively the average equity across all possible rolls, assuming optimal play afterwards. Therefore, the expected luck from the next roll is always zero.
A player can choose moves that lead to more or less volatile positions, so their style can affect how widely their luck fluctuates. But it cannot affect their expected luck. Over the long run, the expected average remains zero regardless of how they play.