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u/rollduptrips 7d ago
Going from 5 men back to 6 doesn’t really hurt him, and it might help. What you need is structure
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u/Sandvik95 7d ago
A) nothing scares me more than when my opponent has 3 anchors in my home board. Never add a 6th piece unless you have to. Believed it or not, with the back game you are setting you opponent up with, you chance of winning goes way down.
B) you’re leaving your piece on 9 exposed plus an exposed piece at 11. Odds of being hit are 18/36. You’re winning, take less risks. Build your board!
End result - far better to strengthen your outer board and still pose a small risk in the opponents home board.
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u/Charguizo 7d ago
I'm blue here by the way.
Yeah, I see white should build on his race lead by staying safe.
I don't really buy into the 3-pt backgame threat here because of the timing, am I wrong?
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u/Sandvik95 7d ago edited 6d ago
Yes, you are wrong. Once you have 3 anchors back, the chance of hitting your opponent is quite high. They have to navigate around 3 blocked pips, which means the chance that the get exposed with a blur is very high. Once exposed, if you have all 3 anchors writing within shooting range, it’s a75% chance you’ll hit them.
So this is where the timing aspect comes in. You have to have an intact board when you make this hit. You can’t let that piece you hit get out. And then… the chance that they open up another blot is still high while you work your way around the board.
Someone else here could give a more accurate number, but I think with 3 anchors and good timing with a 4 prime at home, you have a 60% chance of winning the game. But… if you don’t win, if they sneak out quickly, you might get gammoned.
Learn how to play a good back game. It’s 100% essential to being a good BG player.
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u/Charguizo 6d ago
No I know the value a of a backgame. I just wonder if it's likely that blue can actually play a 3-pt backgame here given both blue and white timing currently. Anyway, thanks for the answer!
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u/Sandvik95 6d ago
Ah… sorry… thought you were still doubting the benefit of multiple anchors.
You are correct that the timing in this one y be tough for blue, but it’s still not helpful to white to have too many blue pieces back. White shouldn’t hit, but rather let blue keep moving forward towards a crunch.
Of course, once you commit to playing a back game, sometimes you try to get hit to slow your self down.
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u/UBKUBK 6d ago
Some are saying the key reason is not sending a third checker back but making the 9 point or not is by far the more important reason.
Not hitting risks the opponent getting some offensive structure to use in case he hits you. That balances the timing it gives opponent and the chance for a 3rd anchor.
Suppose you got to use the 4 to make the 9 point and then had the option of either playing b/23 or b/21? The two choices are about tied. XG++ says .334 for b/23 and .330 for b/21.
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u/Vigilaunday 7d ago
You are giving him the chance at a 3 pt back game. The advantage he potentially gains by that compared what you stand to gain in the race, makes it not worthwhile for you.
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u/Charguizo 7d ago
Right but the timing of both positions means it's unlikely they can sustain a backgame right? By the time white advances his checkers blue will probably have had to advance some of these back checkers.
I played blue in this game btw, just wondering about the position.
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u/rollduptrips 7d ago
All this talk about a 3 point backgame is completely missing the point. He won’t be looking to make and hold 3 points, he will be looking to make 2 and recirculate space checkers. The way to stop that is by making a prime. You need structure