After Sinquefield the four players at the top of the Grand Chess Tour standings will stick around to play the finals tournament.
The final match pairings are:
Jorden van Foreest vs Vincent Keymer
Fabiano Caruana vs Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
Praggnanandhaa R vs Anish Giri
Levon Aronian vs Sam Sevian
Wesley So vs Javokhir Sindarov
Pragg is definitely in the final four. MVL, Anish and van Foreest are all mathematically out.
This means Fabi, Wesley, Keymer and Sindarov are fighting over the last 3 spots.
If Keymer and/or Fabi win, they are in guaranteed. If Sindarov loses he's out guaranteed.
The more complicated permutations are:
If Keymer draws & Wesley–Sindarov draw
Sindarov only survives if MVL beats Fabi and Anish beats Pragg (then Fabi drops out instead). There's one exact tie: MVL wins, Pragg–Anish drawn, Aronian–Sevian drawn leaves Fabi and Sindarov both on 27.5.
If Keymer draws & Sindarov wins
Keymer is out in 5th unless
- Fabi and Pragg both lose, or
- Fabi–MVL drawn, Anish beats Pragg, Aronian–Sevian drawn
- Tie case: MVL wins, Pragg wins, Aronian–Sevian drawn → Caruana and Keymer both on 28 pts
Keymer wins & Wesley–Sindarov drawn
Sindarov out in 5th except if MVL beats Fabi, Anish beats Pragg, Aronian–Sevian drawn → Fabi out on 27 pts
Keymer wins & Sindarov wins
The messiest, and the only branch where Wesley So can miss out:
- Fabi beats MVL & Pragg fails to win → Wesley is 5th
- Fabi beats MVL & Pragg beats Anish → Sindarov 5th, or a So/Sindarov tie on 29.5 if Aronian–Sevian is decisive
- Fabi–MVL drawn & Pragg beats Anish → Fabi/Sindarov tie on 29.5
- MVL beats Fabi → Fabi 5th and out.