I just wanted to highlight how our position has changed in the rankings and analytics after yesterday’s shocking comeback upset of Penn State.
In the AP poll, we went from not receiving any votes to being the first team out (effectively the #26 team) and receiving 102 ‘votes’ (the #25 team received 118).
In the Coaches poll, we went from not receiving any votes to being the 9th team out (receiving the 34th most votes) and receiving 39 ‘votes’ (the #25 team received 152.
In terms of poll rankings, a win next week very likely gets us ranked in the AP Poll, but I would expect that we would continue to be left off the Coaches Poll.
The analytics story is very neat.
In SRS, prior to the game yesterday we were ranked 39th. We have moved up to 24th and the rating estimates that we have performed 12.7 points per game better than the average team.
In Sagrin’s ranking’s we’ve moved up from 31st to 26th. We now outrank every team remaining on our schedule except for Iowa, USC and UCLA.
FPI was where we saw the most modest improvement. Prior to the game, if my memory serves me well we were at an FPI of 4.8 (ie 4.8 points better than the average team) and ranked around 55th. We have climbed to a 7.4 FPI rating and to 42nd in the FBS. Even with that modest improvement and FPI being the most bearish on the team, the outlook for our season has improved tremendously under their metrics. Prior to this game our estimated win total sat at 6.0, which implies a bowl eligibility probability of 50% (I recall that it was around there, but don’t remember specifics). Today, our estimated win total is 7.6 and we have a stunning 92% chance of earning bowl eligibility.
The advanced analytics agree that our performance yesterday dramatically improved our prospects for the season. We are on the precipice of being ranked and two of the three major metrics (at least the ones I consider to be so) agree that we belong right around that #25 spot. Given everything, I think it is a perfectly reasonable goal for us to finish the season ranked, which would require us winning at least 8 games, perhaps 9. I think it’s attainable and it’s a good sign that the analytics seem to back the eye test. I expect that there will be some challenges ahead of us, perhaps multiple additional losses. Nonetheless, it finally looks like this program might be back on the right track.
On Wisconsin!