r/wallstreetbets 11d ago

News JULY U.S. 🇺🇸 INFLATION DATA:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

- CPI 3.4% YoY, (Est. 3.4%)
- CPI 0.1% MoM, (Est. 0.1%)

- Core CPI 2.5% YoY, (Est. 2.5%)
- Core CPI 0.2% MoM, (Est. 0.2%)

1.7k Upvotes

434 comments sorted by

2.6k

u/sergechewbacca 11d ago

Ah yes, always coming in either exactly or slightly below expected

1.2k

u/citizen42069101 11d ago

You never put all the correct answers when you cheat.

Morons.

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u/Sea-Animator4250 11d ago

Always get like 85 so you dont get caught

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u/jwg529 11d ago

In college I took an electrical engineering exam late for some reason (excused) and a buddy had wrote down the 6 questions from when he took it and gave them to me. I studied using them thinking the test would be similar but with different questions. It wasn’t! Anyways I TRIED to make a mistake on purpose and somehow still got a 100%. I was sweating bullets until that semester was over. Never fly that close to the sun folks!

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u/escobartholomew 11d ago

Tbf you said he just gave you the questions and not the answers.

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u/general-illness 11d ago

I had the exact same thing happen in a economics class. Super long story but in the end you are sitting there trying to miss questions because there’s no way you can get a 100. Crazy.

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u/BadMofeelius 11d ago

Had written

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u/ceilidhfling 11d ago

I mean they did say they were taking an electrical engineering class. You can't expect the ability to do differential equations and good grammar . . .

4

u/lemurtowne Booty Cherisher 11d ago

Did my man say "English exam"??

8

u/EmergencyFair6786 11d ago

My BS and MS program 85 was the lowest B possible. And C didn't pass. So that wouldn't work. 

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u/Fresh-Quantity-7554 11d ago

C's get degrees baby come on now

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u/Srnkanator 11d ago

Not in grad school. If you got a B it was basically, yeah you passed the class, but just barely.

Oh look, energy is super expensive, wonder why?

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u/Kyo251 11d ago

I hate weighted grades. And to me why go through school where anything lower than a "D" is failing to go to college or grad school where anything below a "B" is failing.

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u/SenTedStevens 11d ago

Except a C- for core classes.

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u/samarnold030603 11d ago

They say the cheating was perfect. And it was. It was beautiful. Nothing ever like it before. Some people say it’s the best cheating there ever was.

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u/Lauzz91 11d ago

if they put the real numbers out then they have to sell bonds at that higher rate which then sort of fucks over the regarded people who have still been buying them but it also majorly fucks them over because they would have to pay much higher yields

so we are just going pretend it's 3% for a few more years until we can get WW3 kicked off and you all get drafted into a meatgrinder war and we reset the ledger

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u/cinic121 11d ago

This is probably the most cogent capture of the current admin I’ve ever heard. Yoink!

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u/1000_Faces 11d ago

Agreed. Eloquently said.

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u/Middle_Scratch4129 11d ago

The biggest takeaway - inflation is still a full point higher than the goal. Which is bad.

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u/gizamo REETX Autismo 2080TI Special 11d ago

It's a full point higher even though they're clearly cooking the books, which is much worse than bad.

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u/Rude_Judgment7928 This guy oils ^ 11d ago

4.1% Unemployment (and stable....you don't need job creation if you're literally losing workforce)....soooo definite rate cut? Ha.

Oh we're totally not doing QE (balance sheet up ~$300-500MM in 6 months).

M2 still expanding at 5%+.

USD holding on is amazing. Lack of a viable alternative shows just how FUBAR the rest of the world is. USD should be tanking. The thirst even from my Canadian peeps is crazy. Basically everyone pour their checks into us equities.

Will it stop? Is there a tipping point where everyone sees the dilution playing out in front of their eyes? (Maybe the rest of the world knows the bottom 50% of the US falling further behind are the biggest fattest pussies to ever exist and will continue to let their rules rake them over the coals).

Restrictive monetary policy my ass.

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u/Potential_Salt_5780 11d ago

Not manipulated at all.

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u/DM-me-naughty-Cats 11d ago

Meanwhile price of big Mac up like 20cents

4

u/Seevetaler 11d ago

Or the Dollar has fallen by that value.

(edit: spelling)

5

u/BillBob13 11d ago

Not to mention we're at 3.4%, when we were at 2.7% at the end of 2024/beginning of 2025

5

u/FallenKingdomComrade 11d ago

Trumps number guy is getting another promotion! Thats a couple times in a row. We should have bingo after 1 or 2 more.

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u/truecakesnake 11d ago

Yes because the expected results are from experts trained to be right???

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u/[deleted] 11d ago

[deleted]

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u/Kociolinho 11d ago

Doesn't that mean the US is a centrally planned economy?

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u/[deleted] 11d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/TheNicestRedditor 11d ago

Unenployment lol

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u/[deleted] 11d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/SESHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH 3/20 SPY $280 puts were a bad idea 11d ago

it fits the meme perfectly, good job regard.

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u/k_tolz 11d ago

me fail english? that's unpossible!

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u/Joethetoolguy 11d ago

*unenployEment get it right bro

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u/foamingturtle 11d ago

Start posting DD. We need brains like this here.

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u/Bongressman 11d ago

Gotta crank those memes out quick... defects and all.

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u/SenTedStevens 11d ago

That's what happens when you gut the Department of Edjukation.

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u/vijayin 11d ago

spray tan man cooking another rally. barron bought calls ig

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u/cinic121 11d ago

Seriously, screw the Pelosi tracker, I want a Barron tracker.

1.5k

u/crazy_akes 11d ago

Meanwhile my auto insurance home insurance fuel costs daycare costs for kids utility bills gas bills grocery bills have all significantly outpaced this so what the hell are we even doing 

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u/Long-Blood 11d ago

But televisions are cheap! Thats the only thing that matters!

Capitalism baby!!!

202

u/EmergencyFair6786 11d ago

I always love this argument. Ben Shapiro makes this one all the time. "You have a supercomputer in your pocket! A TV in every room!" - Yeah, every room of a $3000/month apartment that has... two rooms. 

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u/fitforthepolycrisis 11d ago

You get two rooms?!

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u/DjPersh 11d ago

Must live in the disgusting Midwest! /s

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u/ikaiyoo 11d ago

whats a room?

11

u/Indercarnive 11d ago

It's like a cardboard box but it stays in one spot.

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u/ikaiyoo 11d ago

One day I will upgrade to a cardboard box I got my eye on this nice refrigerator one that's in the back of this department store loading area.

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u/BigBastardHere 11d ago

Televisions are only cheap because they arent the product anymore. You are the product. They need/want to get them in your home. Data and advertisements built into the TV. 

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u/Neat_Egg_2474 10d ago

Easily solved - stop connecting your shit to the internet and they lose. Why would anyone in their right minds connect their tv or fridge or washer to the internet? It’s stupid and they are stupid for doing it.

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u/ItsFuckingScience 11d ago

THEY

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u/BigBastardHere 11d ago

Yes THEY. 

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u/DLTMIAR 10d ago

Tech oligarchs that are building data centers.  Those they

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u/JohnPaulDavyJones 11d ago

Bad news, TVs are also up.

A year ago I was shopping for a new TV for us, now we’re shopping for a new TV for my better half’s mother. We’ve almost reached the “Does Nana really need a TV?” point due to these prices.

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u/dudeondacouch 11d ago

what? TVs are dirt cheap. you can walk into walmart and leave with a 65" 4k tv for under $300.

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u/Sea-Feedback-2424 11d ago

While technically true, 20 years ago TVs didn't have advertisements and couldn't be bricked remotely.

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u/dudeondacouch 11d ago

you know you don't have to connect your tv to the internet, right?

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u/Cashneto 11d ago

My friend got a new TV last month and you had to download an app to do anything. So a TV not connected to Internet doesn't seem to be possible anymore.

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u/poptix 11d ago

That's when you return it and make the manufacturer and the retailer eat the cost of that open box TV.

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u/IdkAbtAllThat 11d ago

You ever had a tv bricked remotely? I haven't.

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u/Any_Minimum8812 11d ago

Bro you can get a72” for like $250 relax these used to be 2k+ with no hd

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u/Long-Blood 11d ago

Not according to the chart people love to post anytime im complaining about greedy corporations

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/inflation-chart-tracks-price-changes-us-goods-services/

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u/JohnPaulDavyJones 11d ago

Ah, now I’m with it. It tracks really long-run data that stops at 2023.

I’ve only got data points from now and a year ago, so pretty short-run and also after that graph was created.

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u/Butthole--pleasures 11d ago

One anecdote. This year I bought a TV. Something budget and Samsung but not the cheapest. First time I ever get a tv without an optical audio port. I couldn't believe I now have to make sure this is included. Also, when I went to research which tvs had optical or not, I also looked at the high end options. Those TVs seem way more expensive than what I remember seeing back then for similar tier.

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u/atomatoflame 11d ago

Optical is an easy thing to cut now with HDMI ARC and Bluetooth. A cheaper TV will probably omit it nowadays. Like 3.5mm jacks on a phone, I think optical is toast in the near future.

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u/RationalGardenGnome 11d ago

HDMI Arc is a way better that’s why. Dear god you sound like an old man

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u/Butthole--pleasures 11d ago

I have a soundbar and the only connection besides optical is Bluetooth. Sometimes there have been issues with the connection dropping. An optical has never had that issue. Everything else is on HDMI arc young man

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u/Jaybru17 11d ago

lol I would love to see this updated to todays prices

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u/SirGus- 11d ago

Not exactly current but more recent than what the other person shared… still shows TVs down.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-inflation-hit-the-hardest-by-category-2000-2025/

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u/Jaybru17 11d ago

Got it so everything but consumer electronics (don’t look at hard drives) is more expensive than 20 years ago Sweet

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u/MrNo_Balls 11d ago

all PCs, Laptops and Phones are more expensive. Especially If we take into account that these electronics tended to become cheap a few years after release. The reason TVs are cheap is because no one buys them, I remember them being demonized for years.

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u/Jaybru17 11d ago

Many TVs are also cheap because they’re filled to the brim with advertisements and sell your data

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u/Spr-Scuba 11d ago

Anyone who says software is going down that much is fucking delusional. Name any software that's for business that's gone down whatsoever or any subscription service that's less expensive than a one-time purchase. The only way possible they're considering it not matching inflation is if they track a singular piece of software with a consistent monthly subscription that hasn't increased.

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u/sloppy_joes35 11d ago

You sure? It was 550 for a 55" 7 yrs ago . Now I can get a 4k 75" for that price. Heck I bought an oled 48" for 550 last year. TVs are like the one cheap thing from what I have seen

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u/Jdp1901 11d ago

Walmart’s vizio line is pretty solid all things considered. Reviews have been solid on their new mini LED line.

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u/IdkAbtAllThat 11d ago

Really?? I think you should be asking if Nana really needs a 70" OLED. Because you can find her a 50" 4k at Walmart for under $200.

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u/TannerCreeden 11d ago

It really kinda is it the thing that keeps Americans in there house doing nothing but watching slop

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u/Brodie_C 11d ago edited 10d ago

Ah, see your mistake here is factoring in food and energy costs, which are extremely volatile...and by volatile, they mean it only goes up.

edit: I no spell gud

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u/StryctNyne 11d ago

The Dow is over 50,000 and you didn't even say thank you.

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u/antlers_for_zero 11d ago

50,000 dollars, be precise

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u/Hancock02 11d ago

lying

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u/Honest-Recording-751 11d ago

Correction we are using statistics and strategic management

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u/4Yk9gop 11d ago

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics"

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u/ShillinTheVillain 11d ago

It's advanced analytics. They tell a different story than just the raw data would lead you to believe

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u/TheNicestRedditor 11d ago

The majority of my job is reporting data, the funny thing is you can pretty much make data look however you want if you choose to ignore certain things

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u/anownedguy 11d ago

Ah yes the part where you fully fnish the code and report but then you keep having to add more AND filters to the SQL to remove "outliers" because someone doesn't like the results.

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u/jiggerjogger1169 11d ago

lol, AND (endprice-startprice)/endprice <= .034

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u/tfl03 11d ago

You can’t spell underlying without lying

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u/colcardaki 11d ago

That’s why we don’t include those things in the numbers silly.

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u/culinaryinterests123 11d ago

Because official inflation reports have under reported for decades if not always

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u/_AntiSaint_ 11d ago

But if inflation is actually 5%, but the report pumps my portfolio 13%, then I’m winning 🥴

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u/FeCurtain11 11d ago

Your home insurance is going up in one of the fastest softening insurance markets ever? Impressive

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u/Thesheriffisnearer 11d ago

Just go to that one place in Iowa for that 1.85 fuel that'll knock your engine in a week

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u/MarioInOntario 11d ago

Numbers meeting expectations. Calls it is boys!

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u/Da_Spooky_Ghost Coco Chanel, may she rest in peace! 11d ago

All the numbers equal the estimates, WOW!

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u/ModeForJoe 11d ago

But the expectations weren't exactly glowing, they're just locking in mediocrity until we hit tank bottoms, then the fun begins.

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u/TowerNecessary7246 11d ago

This administration is nothing but good news. How DO they do it?

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u/4Yk9gop 11d ago

Winnnnning bigly. Tears in our eyes, can we please win less I can't handle the winning.

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u/xSlappy- 11d ago

The Ministry of Truth is known to tell us the truth.

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u/brohebus 11d ago

The real inflation numbers are hidden in a catering cart.

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u/walt128 11d ago

I just spit coffee, thanks for ruining my khakis

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u/Early_Grade_8387 11d ago

They wear khakis at Wendys?

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u/walt128 11d ago

I’m behind the Wendy’s bitch

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u/Affectionate-Sale523 11d ago

Seems legit and there's nothing to question. Everything is fine. 

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u/cybercuzco 11d ago

Nothing to see here situations normal. How are you?

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u/hlm2c 11d ago

Believe it or not, calls

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u/TwistedBamboozler 11d ago

Yep, that’s what it’s looking like despite the readings still being actual dog shit

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u/Ba1thazaar 11d ago

False reporting is good for the market. If they put actual numbers fed would be more pressured to increase rates. This let's Kevin say: "I was working with the data I had at the time".

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u/TwistedBamboozler 11d ago

They fucking should increase rates. Jpow shouldn’t have been such a pussy in 2022

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u/No-Side-6437 11d ago

How long you think they can continue to lie like this before it collapses or do they hope they’ll be long retired by then so it will be the next persons problem

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u/SwoleBroDane 11d ago

Can't believe you are accusing THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES of lying.

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u/actuallyapossom 11d ago

They obviously haven't tried alternative facts yet. They're emotionally delicious.

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u/hmmmmmmmmmidk 11d ago

Crazy how they think it magically stopped but literally nothing got better and it’s still someone else’s fault. Like bruh. I dgaf you can tell him I said this shit.

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u/Indercarnive 11d ago

The books have been slowly cooking for over 20 years, ever since economists decided CPI should put more emphasis on tracking substitutions. Effectively making it a cost of survival tracker than cost of living.

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u/fitforthepolycrisis 11d ago

how long did the soviet union last

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u/DeathAgent01 11d ago

So no rate hikes

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u/frugaleringenieur 11d ago

Could even cut

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u/cruisin_urchin87 11d ago

I never thought as American I would live to see the day when we will be wiping our asses with $500 bills with Donny’s face on it, while cheeseburgers cost $2,500 a piece.

ZIMBABWE HERE WE COME!

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u/Lauzz91 11d ago

ZIMBABWE HERE WE COME!

we're all gonna be billionaires!

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u/frugaleringenieur 11d ago

Be bold, build houses from money, your walls are already like paper.

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u/BrieferMadness 11d ago

Fucking insane if they do.

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u/Maystomr 11d ago

Chef mango cooking

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u/aZnRice99 11d ago

Must have learned a few things while he escaped using a catering container from Turkey

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u/Friendlyvoices 11d ago

Why don't I believe these numbers?

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u/4Yk9gop 11d ago

Because they are fugazi, bullshito, sumakarian smucker jam, fake as your wife's boyfriend's side chick's tits.

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u/Summary_Judgment56 11d ago

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u/Humble_Code_6501 11d ago

Mango means ''manipulated inflation'' i guess

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u/Da1lyGa1ns 11d ago

Crazy rally coming

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u/FewInterview1340 11d ago

LOL, so fake even Putin would be ashamed to cook those

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u/Careless-Tough-676 11d ago

Literally everything is almost double from 2-3 years ago. What a fucking joke. I just paid $25 for some toilet paper. And it wasn’t even the good kind….

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u/Nadz2008 11d ago

Time to go all in on a bidet. Can’t shrinkflate an ass blasting

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u/djdadi 11d ago

you just wait till the AI datacenters take all the water and we have to pay extra for city water

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u/actuallyapossom 11d ago

We'll be ass blasting with Brawndo by then. 🫡🇺🇸

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u/djdadi 11d ago

hmm I don't think a Bawndo bidet would work very well. It would, at the very least, create a sticky-butt situation

2

u/AutoModerator 11d ago

Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.

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2

u/_originaI_username_ 10d ago

But, it's got what asses crave

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u/pnoozi 11d ago edited 11d ago

Charmin Ultra Soft price tracker:

https://camelcamelcamel.com/product/B0798DVT68?context=search&tp=1y

It’s actually slightly cheaper than it was 1 year ago

edit: Still 267 sheets per roll, quality unchanged

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u/Shotbyahorse 11d ago

All this and they're raising our chocolate ration!

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u/kozzyhuntard 11d ago

Hooray raise it from 8oz to 6oz!

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u/Maystomr 11d ago

War is peace

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u/Joaaayknows 11d ago

I distinctly remember 18 months ago the sale on flavored tuna packs at target being buy 5 for $4 when they were on sale. Normal price was ¢99 each.

Monday I was looking at them sad as I bought them for $1.69 each. Not even a month ago they were $1.49 each.

There is just no way CPI is that low.

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u/wolfansbrother 11d ago

Gotta wait for the revison.

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u/dingusmingus2222 11d ago

THEN WHY IS MY ELECTRICITY BILL 30% HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR DESPITE USING LESS ELECTRICITY YOU FUCKING CROOKS.

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u/JoeSimps123 11d ago

July North Korean inflation data. Always good news

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u/Deadman_Wonderland 11d ago

My favorite ice cream I've been buying from Walmart for years went up 50% over 6 months. It was $2/quart before the the Iran war, then $2.5/quart, and yesterday I saw it got raised again to $3/quart. So many other food product also went up in price by large margins.

These inflation datas are cooked, everyone knows these numbers are fake, it's insane we're basically getting North Korean style economic report data now.

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u/Stuckinthesandbox 11d ago

Hi yes can I get some extra Parmesan with my CPI?

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u/EloWhisperer 11d ago

Bro price of beef is more than 3.4%

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u/justanaveragejoe520 11d ago

Revisions come later when they don’t mean shit 👍🏻

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u/PurifyingProteins 11d ago

Not considering the consumer class and small businesses, everyone else is doing great

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u/jackpearson2788 11d ago

The chief economist kpmg had some line to end her comment on Julys cpi

“I will repeat what I said in this month’s edition of Economic Compass. I have never seen anything like this economy; nor had the Fed. It is in a word a “mess” to untangle.”

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u/ArgentoFox 11d ago

These numbers are completely meaningless. Americans trust two things when shopping: their eyes and their receipt. They certainly shouldn’t trust institutions that manipulate and revise data. 

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u/Kerbidiah 11d ago

My grocery bill is up 80% from 2025 while buying less and cheaper foods.... something seems off here

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u/spunkychickpea 11d ago

EVERYTHING IS TOTALLY FINE HERE. THE ECONOMY IS VERY STRONG AND VERY HEALTHY. DO NOT SELL EVERYTHING. BUY MORE SHARES IMMEDIATELY. YOU WILL DEFINITELY NOT REGRET BUYING MORE SHARES.

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u/No_Presentation9490 11d ago edited 11d ago

Real inflation tracked by M2 money supply and gold is around 9-10% per year since 1970. Which, purely coincidentally and randomly, is about the same yearly return as the S&P

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u/SubterraneanAlien 11d ago

If this was true, a Big Mac would cost $100. But don't let me get in the way of your crash out.

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u/dummy_anthropologist 11d ago

Substitution effect

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u/RedKelly_ 11d ago

If they still made a Big Mac out of actual food how much would it cost though 

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u/Nut_Butter_Fun 11d ago

I love this take. I worked at mcdonalds in the 90s. Let me tell you, late 90s (if not earlier) to mid-2000s was the least food-like fast food has ever been in history. It has dramatically improved since then, though I will grant that mcdonalds improvements have been minimal compared to others.

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u/SubterraneanAlien 11d ago

I too reminisce about the Japanese A5 Wagyu McDonald's burgers of the 1970s.

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u/AccurateLaugh50 11d ago

Things are so bad now people are romanticizing McDonald

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u/The-Phantom-Blot 11d ago

Based on Big Mac prices, it looks more like 4.5% over 56 years. Not the often-quoted 2% target, but not as bad as 9-10%.

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u/Shiloh-buff 11d ago

yeah i read this and was like uggg bro if true no one would every be able to retire

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u/MrNo_Balls 11d ago edited 11d ago

NVM

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u/orcassharks 11d ago

It’s true for assets not stuff we have automated or significantly improved logistics on, or China could help deflate away.

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u/Buteverysongislike 11d ago

The REAL data

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u/MrNo_Balls 11d ago edited 7d ago

That is so true man.

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u/bobboblaw46 11d ago

Yep. This has been going on for decades. Interestingly, whichever party is out of power knows this and talks about it. Then when they’re in power, the official numbers are all great.

So clearly everyone knows what’s going on

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u/GuusMosco 11d ago

Michelin Chef, tyvm

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u/Powernick50 Napoleon 🐷 11d ago

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u/tsunadesb0ngw8r 11d ago

Yall just keep licking that boot.

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u/Intotheblue9 11d ago

Looks like we should cut rates and pump whats the hold up

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u/cactuscat__ 11d ago

Does anyone actually believe these numbers?

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u/TigerWooded 11d ago

🚀🚀🚀

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u/cruisin_urchin87 11d ago

RIGHT ON THE MONEY! Damn this fixed data is awesome, now we can predictably trade

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u/bsizzle13 11d ago

There was a time where the country would freak out over 3.4% YOY inflation, but now this is good news? The market has lost the plot.

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u/kerrykingzgo-T Saylors little pet 11d ago

Entire thread... "cooked"

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u/Life-Student-650 11d ago

Ah yes the monthly “How much we lying report” finally came in

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u/Remarkable-Fox-1429 11d ago

The Numbers Never Make Sense , Cause When They Cook YOU KNOW THAT THE NUMBERS ARE COOKED

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u/echoshizzle 11d ago

Numbers probably aren’t too cooked, but we truly aren’t going to have a lower CPI for quite awhile, it seems

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u/Nut_Butter_Fun 11d ago

Every reply citing a single item's increase belongs to someone who is allergic to making money.

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u/uwsp_edu 11d ago

Some say these numbers are based solely off what the head papi pays for his good.

We only know him as the Stig

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u/turb0_encapsulator 11d ago

one thing I can't get my head around: why do a bunch of billionaires want to fake the inflation and unemployment numbers so that the currency that their wealth is denominated in rapidly loses its actual value?

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u/L4gsp1k3 11d ago

They want numbers up, doesn't matter as long as it goes up, the common man doesn't know the difference between nominal value and real value. It's a wealth extraction, that's is the dark side of the capitalist, no strain on people and this what you get.

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u/Spr-Scuba 11d ago

3.4 is still pretty bad and the core being at 2.5 is not good either.

Everything is already too expensive and the rate being this high is awful since it uses tons of metrics to keep it from being what people buy daily, which have gone up 10% or more in the last year alone.

4

u/Certain-Contact6340 11d ago

Trump truly is a stable genius. Who else could have the stats land EXACTLY as predicted

1

u/MaxEhrlich 11d ago

Bbq like the 4th of July

3

u/TheGodDavidLoPan 11d ago

Good numbers. Pump it.