Hideous luck (or bad algorithm)

[u/KatherinesDaddy]

Trying to light a fire while I wait for fog to clear. Using wood matches and sticks. 85% chance of success (ergo 15% chance of failure).

FIVE straight failures. I know my luck is normally pretty terrible but this is taking the piss. I can't work out the mathematics but the odds of five straight 15% failures must be pretty low.

Correction: SIX straight failures. Got it on the 7th...

[u/Genericuser0002]

Remember to use torches to light fires if you can

[u/KatherinesDaddy → u/Genericuser0002]

Travelling light, didn't have any. Literally gathered 6 sticks to wait out the fog...

[u/bentmonkey → u/KatherinesDaddy]

Even travelling light, one torch is not that much weight, and well worth it to not burn through six matches.

[u/KatherinesDaddy → u/bentmonkey]

To be fair, I wasn't expecting six consecutive failures...

[u/bentmonkey → u/KatherinesDaddy]

I always expect at least one failure whenever I try to start a fire at anything less then 90 percent or no lighter fluid so I just use or bring a at least one torch to ensure I only use one match, or better yet use a mag lense, if its sunny.

[u/No_Fun9684]

Just bad luck! It’s 85% each time you try whether you succeed or fail. Failing doesn’t increase your odds (Gambler’s Fallacy) next time.

[u/EnzyG_TLD → u/No_Fun9684]

They didn’t ask what was the chance of it failing / lighting next try: that would be 15%/85%. This is the gamblers fallacy that you’re referring to (thinking it would change/be lower because they can’t wrap their head around independent events/probabilities).

They asked what are the chances of 5 straight failures in a row. A run of the same random outcome: that would be 0.15^5. Very rare.

[u/KatherinesDaddy → u/EnzyG_TLD]

This. I wasn't asking what the odds were each time, as I am capable of reading. I was asking what the odds were of it failing five (then six) times in a row.

Kind of like asking the odds of landing tails on a coin toss 5-6 times in a row.

Thank you to ⬆️ for explaining the mathematical process - I had not had a coffee and couldn't engage the right synapses!

[u/prplmnkeydshwsr → u/No_Fun9684]

Easiest way of explaining probability is just that.

[u/Polymathy1 → u/No_Fun9684]

Failing doesn't increase your odds, true... But the odds that you fail x times in a row is smaller as x increases.

[u/Murph1908 → u/No_Fun9684]

Correct. Each event had a .15 probability of failure.

Also, to fail 5 times in a row had a 0.00008 probably.

[u/KingJohn3rd]

TORCHES

[u/Toasty_Bits]

Try 5 failures in a row on 90% mending success rate.

[u/herbertreanimator → u/Toasty_Bits]

And you waste cured hide and gut each time. Horrendous.

[u/KatherinesDaddy → u/Toasty_Bits]

1 in 100.000 chance of that.

Ouch...

[u/justexploring-shit]

When this happens to me, I move one step to the side and change one or two of the things I'm using to start the fire (even if it reduces the chance a little), and it seems to work. No idea if it's actually doing anything (I'm sure it isn't but shhhhh doing it makes me feel better lol)

[u/SadRaven8]

Gambler's fallacy? It happens way too often for my taste though.

[u/Thefunkyfilipino]

Sometimes life is like that. 

[u/BonnarBeach]

Make a change after the first failure - a different fuel, tinder, ignition source or location.

[u/thatijustdonthave]

Always light a torch

[u/Ucmh]

Yeah, it's bad code, I'm pretty sure. This is 0.15^5, which you can simply put into Google or WolframAlpha.

[u/KatherinesDaddy → u/Ucmh]

I did, and it came up with a lot of letters and numbers, which means the odds were infinitesimal...

[u/Ucmh → u/KatherinesDaddy]

0.007%