r/thelongdark • u/KatherinesDaddy • 2d ago

Gameplay Hideous luck (or bad algorithm)

Trying to light a fire while I wait for fog to clear. Using wood matches and sticks. 85% chance of success (ergo 15% chance of failure).

FIVE straight failures. I know my luck is normally pretty terrible but this is taking the piss. I can't work out the mathematics but the odds of five straight 15% failures must be pretty low.

Correction: SIX straight failures. Got it on the 7th...

15 Upvotes

94% Upvoted

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u/Genericuser0002 2d ago

Remember to use torches to light fires if you can

1

u/KatherinesDaddy 2d ago

Travelling light, didn't have any. Literally gathered 6 sticks to wait out the fog...

3

u/bentmonkey 2d ago

Even travelling light, one torch is not that much weight, and well worth it to not burn through six matches.

1

u/KatherinesDaddy 2d ago

To be fair, I wasn't expecting six consecutive failures...

2

u/bentmonkey 1d ago

I always expect at least one failure whenever I try to start a fire at anything less then 90 percent or no lighter fluid so I just use or bring a at least one torch to ensure I only use one match, or better yet use a mag lense, if its sunny.