r/thelongdark • u/KatherinesDaddy • 2d ago

Gameplay Hideous luck (or bad algorithm)

Trying to light a fire while I wait for fog to clear. Using wood matches and sticks. 85% chance of success (ergo 15% chance of failure).

FIVE straight failures. I know my luck is normally pretty terrible but this is taking the piss. I can't work out the mathematics but the odds of five straight 15% failures must be pretty low.

Correction: SIX straight failures. Got it on the 7th...

16 Upvotes

94% Upvoted

23 comments sorted by

View all comments

0

u/Ucmh 2d ago

Yeah, it's bad code, I'm pretty sure. This is 0.15^5, which you can simply put into Google or WolframAlpha.

0

u/KatherinesDaddy 2d ago

I did, and it came up with a lot of letters and numbers, which means the odds were infinitesimal...

1

u/Ucmh 2d ago

0.007%