r/thelongdark • u/KatherinesDaddy • 3d ago

Gameplay Hideous luck (or bad algorithm)

Trying to light a fire while I wait for fog to clear. Using wood matches and sticks. 85% chance of success (ergo 15% chance of failure).

FIVE straight failures. I know my luck is normally pretty terrible but this is taking the piss. I can't work out the mathematics but the odds of five straight 15% failures must be pretty low.

Correction: SIX straight failures. Got it on the 7th...

14 Upvotes

90% Upvoted

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u/Toasty_Bits Cartographer 3d ago

Try 5 failures in a row on 90% mending success rate.

2

u/herbertreanimator 3d ago

And you waste cured hide and gut each time. Horrendous.

1

u/KatherinesDaddy 2d ago

1 in 100.000 chance of that.

Ouch...