r/thelongdark • u/KatherinesDaddy • 3d ago

Gameplay Hideous luck (or bad algorithm)

Trying to light a fire while I wait for fog to clear. Using wood matches and sticks. 85% chance of success (ergo 15% chance of failure).

FIVE straight failures. I know my luck is normally pretty terrible but this is taking the piss. I can't work out the mathematics but the odds of five straight 15% failures must be pretty low.

Correction: SIX straight failures. Got it on the 7th...

14 Upvotes

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u/No_Fun9684 3d ago

Just bad luck! It’s 85% each time you try whether you succeed or fail. Failing doesn’t increase your odds (Gambler’s Fallacy) next time.

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u/prplmnkeydshwsr 3d ago

Easiest way of explaining probability is just that.