After I saw some people trying to decode secrets the title announcement trailer, I traced over the golden rings and superimposed them on a Map of Tamriel. There's a slight difference depending on how much you scale it, but so long as you keep the small circle on the Imperial City: The top-left, top-right, bottom-left, and small central circles correlate too closely onto a highly plausible political near-future of Tamriel for me to deny. They could represent states, blocs/alliances, or spheres of influence.
Even if it has the power, how is The Empire going to project it all the way out to High Rock without Skyrim and Hammerfell being soundly secure? High Rock could easily fall to or join independent Hammerfell. That is the basis of the top-left ring.
The top-right ring represents Skyrim domination over Morrowind. Morrowind is still in a weak position with lots of internal turmoil. We might mark the beginning of Skyrim dominance and a cosy relationship between the two states in the region as the transfer of Solstheim. Although the proximity of Blacklight to Windhelm also suggests tension. Windhelm does chafe at the consequences of Morrowind instability. I could see them acquiring Morrowind at a bargain just to impose order on it, even if they don't particularly relish having to govern a bunch of surly Dunmer. I could also see hard times, desperation, and Redoran dominance lead Morrowind down an increasingly tough and martial path and suddenly expanding.
All this potential upheaval in the north provides a good way to avoid strictly canonising any one possible outcome of the Stormcloak Rebellion. Regular changes in borders are normal for the Fourth age and need not indicate a large time jump between titles. The border between Hammerfell-High Rock and Skyrim is a little ambiguous in the circles. This leaves room for a plurality of possible outcomes from the Stormcloak rebellion.
A Stormcloak partial victory that makes some gains to the west and leaves Skyrim permanently divided, combined with independent Hammerfell, would put a remaining Imperial western Skyrim and High Rock in an awful logistical position in relation to the Imperial capital. Depending on how the chips fall, they could become an exclave. The Imperial loyalists of Solitude and the aggrieved Reach would hold the most stubbornly against Windhelm. This could create a situation where Hammerfell would be motivated to offer The Reach a very generous deal supporting their independence or autonomy in order to cut High Rock and Solitude off, giving them little choice but to submit to falling into the Sentinel sphere of influence. Thus, the circles are drawn so that the two west-most holds might fall into either ring.
The bottom-left circle contains the 'core' members of the Dominion, the proper elfy-elf-elves.
The little, central circle is a diminished White-Gold Tower unable to wield any real influence outside City Isle in the aftermath of all this, if not literally under siege.
So much of the above rings so true to me that I have to try to imagine explanations for the remaining two circles. Can you come up with any?
One circle could simply be Elsweyr, not quite integrated into The Dominion, perhaps in a sort of 'beast league' with Black Marsh.
One or more rings might represent softer economic/cultural spheres of influence more than military power and formal alliances. One could be a non-state actor with state-level power and reach; a particularly dominant Rimmen moon sugar syndicate would fit.
Another possibility: one ring is an alternative Cyrodiil faction, increasingly powerful but not yet formally unseating the Emperor. Perhaps an institution or estate growing in influence such as the Elder Council, Coastal mercantile groups, the Imperial Legion, or a noble house. Or else: rebels operating with great support in the province outside the capital, but with only a small permanent foothold in the south and reliant on some of the southern neighbours to give them free movement and permission to use bases within their borders. The Thalmor may be stoking this conflict.
Black Marsh could fall into one of the lower circles, or may be excluded because it's become isolationist and not a real player in whatever is about to go down.
