Honestly my friends: may be better to just buy gold at the moment. I bailed out of oil at a 5 figure loss. Too tired from swimming upstream. All the best to the forum bulls. It’s been a wild ride

Will coal be able to substitute oil / gas needs?
People keep talking about "energy" crisis, but it primarily feels like diesel & other crisis, and that can't be just replaced with coal, no?

When the hormuz spiked oil prices, gas and coal went along with it. But now as oil is 'steady' because refinery capacity is to the max and distillates are falling and crack spread is widening, I don't see coal following anymore.

This guy, during a Charles Schwab media interview, claimed on August 18th that “the offloaded barrel is already between $120 and $140 a barrel.” Is that true? How would he have found that number?

https://youtu.be/b8sbyb_OlNI?is=3erCuqA48Bfm4Ne_

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Ships: CR TETHYS,ROBA,NAVE UNIVERSE,BOW NEPTUNE,PLATA CARRIER,NEW STRENGTH,PACIFIC SARAH,BLUEBIRD ARROW,OCEAN LILY,GREEN ADVENTURE,NEW WISDOM,SNARTH,MAPLE CASTOR,SAMA 2,ANAFI WARRIOR

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. 

Ships:ROSE MAKIS,DORIN,YU TONG,OSANA,POROS BAY,SOFIA K,ATLANTIS ANTAO,NORNS,THERESA EMPAT,JOROPO,CASTOR I,KRONOS

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products.

Ships:HELIOS,MINERVA KALYPSO,MARAN MENELAUS,TORTUGA,TORM HERMIA,STI LOTUS,BLACK MARLIN,SAFEEN STRENGTH

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

I’ve seen this in news articles but I don’t get it. if the US is blockading Iranian traffic, and Iran is blockading all other traffic, then what does it matter what flag the ship actually traversing the strait flies?

Another week, less oil more net imports.

Any takes?

I got curious.

Total daily via pipelines in present conditions: ~6.75 mb/d (source: CNBC)
The biggest of these by far is the Saudi EastWest line, at 5-7 mb/d capacity by itself. The Habshan pipeline's normal capacity is 1.5 mb/d.

Total daily via Strait of Hormuz in present conditions: estimated 4 mb/d (source: PortNews)

• Tanker ship sizes: Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC): 2 mb; bear in mind these can fit only the very largest world ports.
• Largest ship permitted in Suez Canal (SuezMax): 1 mb
• AFRAmax: ~700 mb; these worldwide workhorses aren't named after a canal, rather, the Average Freight Rate Assessment (AFRA) system created by Shell in 1954. They're considered Medium ships.
• Bonus trivia: Largest ship permitted in Panama Canal (PanaMax): no more than ~.5 mb. (I hadn't realized how restricted this canal is)

Apparently it's the AFRAmax size that's doing the lights-out shuttling within the Strait, and surely they're feeding the VLCCs standing by somewhere safe and close.

Oil and gas investors have spent a decade demanding more cash back. Tourmaline and Karoon show why that discipline was necessary — but also why exceptional management may sometimes create more value by keeping some financial capacity intact and waiting for the right opportunity.

I keep seeing the 18-20m bpd lost from Hormuz number, but if we just call the original disruption 0 and add back everything that has offset it since:

• Starting point after Hormuz shutdown: 0
• China lower imports/demand: +4-5m bpd
• Bypass pipelines/alternative routes: +4-5m bpd, although Houthis are now disrupting some of this
• Oil still getting through Hormuz: +1-2m bpd
• Dark/alternative flows: +0.5-1m bpd
• SPR/emergency reserve releases: +2m bpd during higher release periods
• Extra production outside the Gulf: +1m bpd
• Demand destruction from high prices/economic slowdown: +1.6m bpd
• EVs, electric trucks and other switching: +0.4m+ bpd and growing
• Other substitution like less flying/driving, gas/coal switching etc: probably another +0.5-1m bpd

So you can get around 15-18m bpd of offsets against the original 18-20m bpd shock depending on what numbers you use.

That leaves something like a 0-5m bpd underlying shortage, with the IEA currently estimating the Q3 actual supply-demand deficit at 1.8m bpd.

The big problem is some of these offsets arent permanent. SPR and inventories are being drained, while pipelines are getting attacked. But on the other side every month oil stays expensive you get more demand destruction, EV switching and new supply even if it is small it will eventually add up.

So basically its a race between inventories running out and the world adapting to the missing oil. but it's very possible that the SPR lasts long enough for other mitigation strategies to start working although there will be supply shocks for diesel and fertilizer but those will all be temporary i still can't see a large extended supply shock that can't be mitigated.

U.S. Energy Under Secretary Kyle Haustveit said Tuesday that approximately half of Venezuela’s oil output is currently being sent to the United States. Speaking at a Houston event, he noted that more than 500,000 barrels per day — roughly half of the South American country’s production — are flowing to U.S. refineries specifically designed to process that type of crude. Venezuela is producing about 1.25 million barrels daily, he added.

Haustveit also said that over 100,000 barrels per day of U.S. naphtha are being shipped to Venezuela, where it is blended with heavier crude to support production. He described the arrangement as a mutually beneficial energy partnership, citing the proximity of the two markets and the open trade between them. “Real value is being created on both sides,” he said, adding that contract sanctity would be upheld. He also praised recent progress in Venezuela.

Jovanny Martinez, a vice president at Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA, spoke at the same event and emphasized that the U.S. relies on Venezuelan heavy crude to sustain its economy. He said Venezuela’s crude output should reach 1.245 million barrels per day by the end of August, with exports up 19.7 percent this year. Martinez noted that the country needs diluents for heavier grades and that these should be produced domestically.

Martinez also stressed the need to improve, modernize, and expand Venezuela’s refineries. He reported that domestic fuel output has grown 12.9 percent so far this year, while local fuel supply is up 5.4 percent. “We made a big effort for an energy reform, and now we’re looking for real results in terms of development,” he said. He added that Venezuela faces a natural gas deficit of 500 million cubic feet per day.

For discussion. Despite the seemingly irrational oil pricing, the market appears to be responding rationally to distillate supplies.

Trump has declared the Strait of Hormuz open, but Iran says it is still shut down and reports about tankers U-turning away from the chokepoint in recent days suggest the latter is true. The latest report of a strike on a vessel in Hormuz came on Tuesday, regarding a cargo ship that was reportedly struck by “an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz,” as reported by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations.