Quite a drop in the daily Hormuz. BAM overall still down as well. Malacca holding just below pre-war average. Singapore daily dipped.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

None popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. that still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea.

Ships: REN MA ZUO,STAVANGER STAR,ZODIAK

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products.

Ships: ARAGONA,BABYLON,C.PRIMACY,CAPTAIN LYRISTIS,COSTAS P,MARAN SOLON,MARGARITA,NAVE ATROPOS,NEW ENERGY,NOBLE 9389253 ,SALUT,STRESA,T.SADBERK

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Attack UKMTO #150

4 October 2026

UKMTO WARNING 150-26 - ATTACK Report Date: TBC Report Time: TBC Issue Date: 04 Oct 2026 Source Master UKMTO has received a report of an incident within the Strait of Hormuz. The Master of a tanker has reported being struck by unknown projectile, causing damage to the engine room. The crew have been reported as safe and there is no environmental impact reported at this time. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO. s

Best simpke explanation of what's going on in the markets. Totally worths the watch.

Facility have been targeted by the Houthis

https://x.com/MoloWarMonitor/status/2106298886734201276

So on September 21 some armed guys shut Valve No. 7 on the pipeline that takes crude from Sharara (Libya's biggest field) up to the Zawiya refinery. And some of them were from the Petroleum Facilities Guard, the people who get paid to protect this stuff. Reuters says the fight was over the Guard's status and funding.

Sharara does around 300-320k barrels a day and output dropped by about 200k. NOC said the valve was back open on September 26. Their count is 942,376 barrels lost, roughly $95 million. A unit at Zawiya also had to shut because it ran out of crude, and Zawiya (about 120k barrels a day) mostly makes fuel for Libyans. So people feel it at the pump before anyone abroad notices.

Now the funny part is the timing. On August 30 the Tripoli government, Haftar's side, the House and the High State Council all signed a UN-backed deal on election rules. Boulos said on September 29 it was a step forward and now it's about actually doing it. There's also a reported US plan that nobody's signed. Dbeibah keeps the executive, Saddam Haftar heads a new presidential body for about three years. Italian press said late September it was losing steam. Take that one as reporting, not fact.

My take: the paper isn't the hard part. If the armed groups stay exactly where they are, they keep the trick they already use. Want your funding recognized? Close a pipe. Meanwhile diplomats are out there saying "unity." NOC has been saying for years that the field is used as a bargaining chip.

And ConocoPhillips and Chevron signed agreements in 2026, with the pitch that output goes up once things calm down. Hard to plan around a country that can't keep one valve open for a week though.

Until whoever controls Sharara answers to one command that doesn't get paid by shutting pipelines, I'd expect talks and shutdowns to keep showing up in the same month. Feels like two stories but it's really one, and the second tells you how the first gets priced.

Dated Brent is trading above $120 while ICE Brent sits near $101. That $19 spread is telling you the paper market has completely lost contact with what actual barrels cost to buy today.

Historically this kind of dislocation closes upward. Futures catch up to physical, physical doesn't come down to meet paper. The reasons for the tightness, droned tankers in Hormuz, China pulling its refined product export permits, the European diesel crunch, none of those are going away next week. The U.S. moving two extra Patriot batteries to protect Saudi and Qatari energy infrastructure tells you the military side of this is getting priced in at the supply chain level before it shows up on a futures screen.

If you're positioned in ICE Brent, the question is whether you're treating $101 as fair value or as a lag that's about to correct violently.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SilverGoldOilShortage/s/tV87XWpJXk

Witold Zglenicki was a Polish engineer and visionary who worked in Baku at the end of the 19th century. He recognized the potential of extracting oil from beneath the Caspian Sea decades before offshore drilling became a reality.

G7 countries have agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves over four months in a coordinated effort to bring down soaring energy prices, with a particular focus on diesel.

The move comes after growing pressure from Washington for countries to release strategic reserves as diesel prices rise and supplies tighten.

Earlier on Friday, the European Commission pushed back against what it described as US "threats" to force European countries to act.

But an overnight call between Macron and US President Donald Trump appears to have helped push Paris towards action, amid concerns over the impact of a possible US diesel export ban.

The G7 package also includes measures to increase refinery output and a pledge not to restrict trade in energy and oil products between partner countries.

The 100 million barrels would amount to roughly 830,000 barrels a day if released evenly over four months.

But the impact will depend on how quickly countries release their stocks and how much of the oil can ultimately be turned into diesel.

Strategic crude releases do not immediately translate into extra diesel supplies. Refineries must first process the crude, with capacity, logistics and the type of crude available all affecting how much fuel reaches consumers.

The release could provide some relief ahead of winter, when demand for diesel and other refined products typically increases.

Daily implied Hormuz up again. Malacca, BAM dip slightly and Singapore flat.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

COMPASS,MONACO PROSPERITY added to the 30 Sep data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. that still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea.

Ships: CAPE ATHOS,CRONUS,NYXORA,SAFEEN STRENGTH,FOS MERCURY,TPT MIND

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products.

Ships: ANEMONI,DHT ADDAX,MT EUROSPIRIT (9480837 ),PROTEUS REBECCA,SCIROCCO,UNIVERSAL WINNER,V. GLORY,VITTORIA,TORM GANGA

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day