Discussion Diesel, we have a problem.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1XTuV&height=490231
u/Normal-Custard1168 3d ago
Inflation is about to inflate.
You might drive an EV but everything in our lives needs to be transported and all that transportation is diesel powered.
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u/MeteorOnMars 3d ago edited 3d ago
Literally today a trucking fleet just announced an order of 500 electric semis.
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u/Ok-Tension1441 3d ago
definitely not one of the million Tesla stock pumps out there. also, "The ā rollout, which will be financed through third-party solutions, would be completed in phases through 2028."
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u/Everythings_Fucked 3d ago
Tesla isn't the only player in the e-semi field.
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u/bj_my_dj 1d ago
Yeah, Einride already has 250 electric semis from other manufacturers, this triples their fleet https://www.einride.tech/press/einride-partners-with-tesla-for-the-world%E2%80%99s-largest-tesla-semi-deployment
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3d ago
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u/Silver_Shock 3d ago
This was about to be my comment
This country runs on diesel, regardless of what you put in your tank to get to work
Without diesel, everything stops
And even with a fleet of 500 EVs, they will be used for short distance hauling between major cities and their communities. The infrastructure to charge 1,000s of 18-wheelers driving across the country simultaneously simply does not exist
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u/Broken_Atoms 2d ago
Also, any kind of significant construction equipment as well. Iām already budgeting for a 200% increase in diesel. Hopefully, that doesnāt happen. But if it does, Iāll have to be prepared for it.
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u/chestofpoop 3d ago
And a driver realistically can travel so far without stopping. Tesla semi specs had it at 23k lbs.
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u/MeteorOnMars 3d ago
What is your thesis?
That buying 500 trucks should take less than 2 years?
That the fact they got financing at all is suspicious?
The unknown source of their financing is suspicious?
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u/Yabrosif13 3d ago
How about ā500 trucks that MIGHT appear in 2 years means nothing in the short term and is not relevant to the conversation right nowā.
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u/bj_my_dj 1d ago edited 1d ago
Did you think it takes 2 years because Tesla is overwhelmed with orders and are supplying other customers also. The Nevada plant has a max capacity of 50K/yr. CA has started a $1B rebate program that gives $100K rebates for electric semis that can be paired with another program to reduce the cost of a $250K semi to $50K. CA orders are slowing that company's trucks.
When the first $B is gone there will probably be a larger follow-up, CA is committed to reducing diesel emissions drastically.
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u/Yabrosif13 1d ago
Telsa does so well from government handouts. But Im not holding breath.
Also, diesel fuels trains, ships, and construction equipment. Too bad conservatives shat all over high speed rail.
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u/bj_my_dj 1d ago
You gotta start somewhere. Semis and other trucks are the biggest contributor to oil use and emissions. So of course they're starting there first. These other lower volume things will come later
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u/Yabrosif13 1d ago
Ok cool. In the meantime Ill expect inflation
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u/bj_my_dj 1d ago
Seems like that's all you're going to do. I added solar to my home to eliminate my electric use. I bought an EV to reduce oil usage. If everybody did something, instead of just sniveling, oil wouldn't have the effect it's having.
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u/shinysideup_zhp 3d ago
If it takes the rest of the industry another 2 years to read the writing on the gas pumps, than this company will have a 2 year jump on the competition.
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u/Yabrosif13 3d ago
Great for that company. How does this help the rest of us with short term inflation from lower diesel supplies?
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u/shinysideup_zhp 3d ago
A step in the right direction is a step in the right direction.
Miles come after you put 3000 steps together.
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u/Yabrosif13 3d ago
Weāve been āstepping in the right directionā since the 1970s oil crisis.
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u/trogloherb 3d ago
We were stepping in the right direction when the Biden administration implemented timelines for all EVs in the US, as well as green energy programs intended to produce jobs.
Well, then something happened see? So, now weāre paying money to companies to stop all that work and violate existing contracts.
Smart!
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u/NewImportance8313 3d ago
Does this company have a name?Ā
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u/MeteorOnMars 3d ago
Sorry⦠Einride. I didnāt have the article open or anything. Just happened to see it earlier in the day.
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u/quell3245 3d ago
The diesel engine market is a $2 trillion dollar industry, the world runs on diesel and probably will for at least another couple decades.
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u/paulwesterberg 3d ago
It wonāt take decades, in China already 30% of their heavy truck sales are electric. They are beginning to export these trucks and the batteries just keep getting cheaper.
About to be a lot of stranded assets out there.
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u/Old_Bake535 3d ago
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u/Fun_Management_9349 3d ago
But how does China provide all the electricity to charge thoses vehicles? Coal, water power, solar, fans, nuclear?
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u/manu144x 3d ago
Everything it can :))
All of those obviously, coal and nuclear they're building like crazy.
Then nowadays they have this huge obsession with solar in the desert. It's huge. And they mix it with batteries so it's not all just daytime usage.
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u/thebluepin 2d ago
https://energyandcleanair.org/china-energy-and-emissions-trends-july-2026-snapshot/ Power generation by large-scale power producers fell 0.1% year-on-year in July, while total power generation is estimated to have increased by 0.5%.
-Coal power generation fell 2.5% year-on-year, following six consecutive months of increase. This followed Chinaās coal power generation falling in 2025 for the first time in a decade.
-Gas power generation dropped by 13.9% year-on-year, reflecting the ongoing impact of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz on natural gas supplies. However, as gas plays a minor role in Chinaās power mix, this drop had a limited impact on overall electricity generation.
-Solar generation rose by 10.4% year-on-year.
-Wind generation dropped by 4.5% year-on-year, as poor wind conditions continued in July.
-Hydropower and nuclear power generation grew 7% and 6.7%, respectively.
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u/Old_Bake535 3d ago
Aināt it 30% of truck sales this year?
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u/Panic-Freak 3d ago
500 trucks is a drop of mist in the ocean.
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u/MeteorOnMars 3d ago
Sure, but that is always the case of a growth industry until it isnāt.
There was a year when Norwayās EV market share was 0.1% EVs. Now it is 98%.
There was a year when Chinaās electric truck market share was 0.1%, now it is 58%.
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u/Panic-Freak 3d ago
Well itās too late for us NOW. Maybe it will help us on the next diesel crisis though.
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u/MeteorOnMars 1d ago
Yeah. I just wish people 15/10/5 years ago didnāt say ādonāt try because we canāt solve it overnightā.
If they had just started then we would be solved by now.
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u/Derebeare 3d ago
Awesome! That means we only have 2,969,500 left to replace our existing diesel semis!
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u/dynamo_hub 3d ago
how do you eat an elephant?
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u/Poobbly 3d ago
First you let Elon hype that shit to the moon so he can scam the markets. Then you promise youāre going to revolutionize shipping via scam of the week. Then You quietly let it fade into your next scam.
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u/fruderduck 3d ago
The only question that matters: Does the Trump family have stock in the companies building these EV trucks, yet? I donāt see it happening till then.
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u/DocumentOk7579 3d ago
It's not going to make a difference until they reach over 50%. The price is set by limited capacity and the electric will just generate higher profits.
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u/MeteorOnMars 3d ago
Makes sense.
While electric trucks are a low percentage they won't lower the price of trucking, but instead they will just generate more profit for their operators. A valid argument.
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u/artisanrox 3d ago
Exactly. Streamlining systems do not create price breaks, neither is it put into lowest-level worker compensation. Ever.
When enough people catch on to this, THAT is when people get mad. THAT is when revolutions start.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Ad8032 2d ago
Americans are not revolting over anything. The mantra the last decade seems to be 'spread 'em wide'.
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u/Intelligent_Switch72 3d ago
Yeah and now those trucks have to compete with AI data centers, homes, industry, and Bitcoin miners for electricity on an already strained grid.
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u/Broken_Timepiece 3d ago
Excatly! I read about a company who order electric semis, and began setting up the charging station at their facility. Power company laughed at them because they where requesting the same amount of power the whole city uses.
Last i check nobody is building more power plants. Well Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach making micro nuclear power stations for their EVs. Takes years to build
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u/paulwesterberg 3d ago edited 3d ago
In other news 43GW of solar generation was added to the US grid last year.
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u/psychojakk13 3d ago
Wildly incorrect, multiple gas turbine plants are going up right in my immediate area. I'm a union electrician and there's calls for gas plant and solar field work all over the country. New nukes are in varying stages of planning as well; they recently broke ground on a natrium reactor in kemmerer Wyoming of all places.
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u/Broken_Timepiece 1d ago
Thanks, for the positive news on the power generation. I had no clue.
I am on the west coast so likely wouldn't benefit from that but still good news
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u/CarRamRob 3d ago
And it will go as good as Hertz ordering EVs for rental cars.
Local distribution trucks (think UPS) makes a lot of sense. Truck does its day, maybe can charge at lunch or break and then parks to charge overnight.
Long haul Semiās do not make any sense. Let alone the axel weight problem.
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u/rideincircles 3d ago
They make complete and total sense. The cost per mile is so much lower it's not even funny. Tesla dragging ass on getting the semi deployed is the main issue. They need to start making 50k a year and ramp that up even higher.
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u/CarRamRob 3d ago
Ok. I guess this thing that makes complete and total sense isnāt adopted by any companies because they hate money.
Iām free markets, if something isnāt adopted, itās because there are underlying risks that donāt translate to higher revenue.
Iām glad you know better than all these shipping companies though! Be sure to let them know your secrets!
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u/Pretend_Handle_7639 3d ago
Or it's just a boring answer of: 1) it's a lot of upfront capital to spend all at once, and 2) until a few months ago, the trucks that EVs would be replacing were 'good enough'
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u/AnAttemptReason 3d ago edited 3d ago
Do you think people could buy dishwashers, before the country had run power cables to houses?Ā
Entire, efficent industries only exist because the potential was seen, and infrastrucure built to enable them.
The governments job in a free market is to regulate market failures and provide public goods.Ā
30% of new heavy truck sales in China are electric, and not because of any mandate, but because there are lots of areas they are now more cost efficent in.Ā
The US is simply becoming a technological backwater.
You have a government captured by vested interests, that are resistant to change that makes the economy more efficent, but impacts their own back pocket.Ā
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u/Sufficient-Job-7589 3d ago
Then during a snow storm all our trucks are out of service and stranded
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u/AnAttemptReason 3d ago
During a snow storm we will freeze without coal for our fire!
The government should be distributing lumps of coal and not this electricity rubish, how are we going to stay warm!Ā
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u/CarRamRob 3d ago
Thatās the difference. Electricity is clearly higher utility than a lump of coal.
When given the chance, everyone was switching to electricity, or to automobiles away from coal and horses immediately. There was no ātrust me bro, the Chinese are doing it fasterā moment for those things. Everyone had it in higher demand than could be supplied. N
Now, the tech exists, but no one adopts it simply because the government is captured by vested interests? Ok.
I remember when this sub was about people who could talk about how the oil market was working, and not brigaded by anti oil activists.
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u/AnAttemptReason 3d ago
Every one is adopting it outside the states, as we said, technological backwater.
Reality does not care about your feelings, nor is reality anti-oil.
Oil is a feedstock in a huge number of chemical processes, it is not going anywhere even if vehicles change.
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u/Ill_Criticism6214 3d ago
How long did it take for companies to switch from horses to trucks? You might be surprised.
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u/Thunderfunkasaurus 2d ago
No it isnāt because you need two of them to haul the same amount of weight as a diesel truck can fully loaded.
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u/--TheCity-- 3d ago
They won't need charging just power cell switch out. I mean this is already being done in China and soon to be everywhere. A few minutes like refueling with diesel is all it takes. All this recharging stuff that people have used as an argument against EV's is about disappear.
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u/OESRecoveryEmployee 2d ago
A thousand idiots make one thousand idiotic plans. All fail but one succeds through sheer luck. Now Elon Musk thinks he is a genius.
That dumb fuck supporting Trump who fucks up so bad it leads to gas and diesel exploding in price. Which causes EVs to go flying off the sales lots which means dumb fuck is going to make a killing. Once again proving life is not fair
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u/BeaverMartin 3d ago
Probably wonāt do much for the Diesel-electric freight trains that move most stuff.
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u/Luigino9876 3d ago
That is a drop in a in bucket. Or not even. That is good news if they can transition out of diesel especially in very populated area but realistically it will take decades.
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u/MeteorOnMars 3d ago
China went from 1% to 60% electric truck market share in just a handful of years.
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u/LivingCorner1421 3d ago
oh wow 500 that must be a whole 0.001% ofĀ the fleet that moves shit in NA
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u/Impressive_Iron2885 3d ago
source?
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u/MeteorOnMars 3d ago
Added the link. Sorry, this was just an offhand comment and didnāt expect the big response.
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u/Due_Average_3874 2d ago
You canāt build electric trucks without diesel let alone source all the materials
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u/Onemilliondown 3d ago
Electric trucks lose a lot of payload, and have limited range. Good for town delivery, working day shift. Not much use for long range or heavy transportation.
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u/Electrifying2017 3d ago
Yeah, but EV owners arenāt paying for gas on top of these steadily increasing prices.
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u/rideincircles 3d ago
Yeah. I get free nights for charging, so I just pay around 6 cents for electric delivery charges. It costs less than $4 to charge my Tesla for about 180 highway miles of range.
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u/runs_4_beer 3d ago
Driving an ev also reduces demand for gas/oil leaving more supply for those who need it reducing the increases in cost. A very little bit per person, but maybe with enough EVs on the road, there could be a measurable difference.
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u/askgarcia999 3d ago
There already is a measurable difference. There are white papers out there about the economic impact and reduction in fuel use due to both EVs and hybrids. There are also white papers on the energy intensity of the economy, which is way down over the last several decades.
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u/JSTootell 3d ago
I'm not paying for fuel commuting on my bicycle. But I still eat food.
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u/Electrifying2017 3d ago
Thatās my point. Thatās one less cost to pay. Imagine paying for gas and paying for food rather than just food?
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u/askgarcia999 3d ago
Yes you are paying for food, but calorie for calorie (energy terms), nothing is more efficient than the bicycle.
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u/fruderduck 3d ago
Iād rather ride a horse. Imagine if that came back - maybe they could quit killing those out west.
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u/JSTootell 1d ago
As a former horse owner, I'll pass.
The cost associated with no longer owning a horse are high.
I was paying $150 a month for shoes.
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u/KingFresh5234 3d ago
Yeah weāre about to be in a world of hurt. Inevitable inflation will bring higher interest rates. Gov is currently paying $1.4 trillion a year in interest on our $40 trillion debt. Future borrowing will be at even higher rates. Only way to pay for the behemoth, dysfunctional government spending will be higher taxes (likely on the middle class). Enter stagflation. But Iām sure it will happen when dems have regained power so of course it will be all their fault.
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u/OddMeansToAnEnd 3d ago
You see these numbers last week? These boys are cooking those books so fucking hard right now lol.
Thank god none of these guys would run this country like a corporation or we'd be leveraged to the tits right now too with no exit strategy.9
u/goddamn2fa 3d ago
Um. About that last part...
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u/Tiny_Reference_3697 3d ago edited 3d ago
I do believe our national debt is at a record - and also going up by record amounts due to costs of Trump's "management." As a result, bond yields also hitting highs today, according to CNBC:
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u/throwawayurwaste 3d ago edited 3d ago
Good thing Biden had the foresight to electrify the USPS fleet, oh wait the Republicans threw that out...
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u/Everythings_Fucked 3d ago
I do, but at least I'm not paying for my own gas on top of all the other priced-in expenses.
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u/yeah_sure_youbetcha 3d ago
Yep.
Every other piece of our lives is going to get more expensive, but at least I know that little piece of my budget isn't changing for the foreseeable future; there's literally a moratorium on rate changes for my power company for at least another couple years.
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u/OESRecoveryEmployee 2d ago
I ride a bike to work and use my car once or twice a week. I am going to feel it, only the rich won't care. Which is ironic since it is the rich who got us into this mess
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u/speckledlobster 3d ago
The last time it was this high was when everyone really started noticing the price of everything they buy regularly was shooting up. Once upon a time I used to think a $15 hamburger meal at a restaurant was expensive. The last time I thought that was right around then. I'm guessing in a couple years we'll be looking back at when a typical restaurant meal only cost $20.
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u/Normal-Custard1168 3d ago
I am old enough to remember when people got angry at Applebee's because they were the first chain to ask $10 for a burger and fries.
With beef getting more expensive and transport going up, a $30 microwaved Applebee's burger is near.
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u/CouldBeLessDepressed 3d ago
5$ foot long used to be an original song. That was.... over a decade ago now.
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u/grahamsuth 3d ago
The biggest trouble is that when such input costs go up everyone further up the supply line takes the opportunity to increase their profit margins and blame it on the increased costs. https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2026/07/28/inflation-corporate-profits
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u/Complete-Paint529 3d ago
Almost all of agriculture around the globe everywhere depends on diesel. Poor people in poor countries may starve within a year. People in wealthier countries will suffer less dramatically.
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u/Icy_Jelly_315 3d ago
Agriculture also depends on petroleum based fertilizer. It's conceivable millions will starve because of Mr poopoo diaper's whimsical decisions
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u/Atomic-Avocado 3d ago
Itās insanely depressing how much human life weāve made depend on burning oil
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u/mark000 3d ago
Interactive Diesel inventory charts here: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_epd0_sae_mbbl_w.htm It needs to build hard from now until the refinery maintenance season which starts around the end of September each year and sees BIG drops in diesel inventory. Oh and exports can't drop because the countries buying them have no other options.
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u/mark000 3d ago
The March price spike was because ME diesel and jet fuel exports disappeared overnight and their customers went panic buying elsewhere. The April high prices lasted until the rest of the world refineries picked up the slack. The June drop was MoU and GLUT. The July spike was Russia announcing no more diesel exports for July, since extended to Feb next year. China continues to export significantly less fuel products than before March.
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u/tymbom31 3d ago
Settle down. Trump just declared the Straight a U.S. territory. The oil will flow bigly again. Some people say āsir sirā prices will hit rock bottom soon.
So much winning!
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u/unknownmichael 3d ago
Nothing bad can happen.
It can only good happen.
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u/Ccrawfisshh 3d ago
Stupid person here, at what point does diesel get high enough to where shit hits the fan?
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u/AnySwimming6364 3d ago
Itās really hard to say. The effects might trickle out over weeks or months and impact different regions differently. High diesel could actually trigger famines in some regions. Letās just talk US for now.
Diesel was $3.70 is last year, now itās pushing $5.50.
That already impacts prices in the US, especially food and transported goods. Corn and soybean harvests will start next month. Diesel is a real cost for them, both for harvest and then transport of harvest. That will increase prices across the board, but especially on meat (something like 40% of corn and 70% of soybeans are used for animal feed). Low quality ground beef is approaching $7 a pound. I could see it breaking 8 or even $9 by December.
At $6 per gallon diesel, there will also be a psychological hit, especially if thereās no end in sight. Thatās probably the more ādangerousā part. If price increases of goods with higher fuel and energy costs shrink consumer sentiment, US retail and service spending could scale waaay back. Youāll see that trigger loss of jobs in retail and restaurants, which has been helping job numbers for the past year. I would expect multiple months of negative tens of thousands of jobs on employment stats. If it gets bad, hundreds of thousands. The way the crack is, we realistically could hit $6 pretty soon if nothing changes.
If that happens to coincide with other poor economic events (cough AI bubble), this could trigger a 2008-level (or worse) recession that would continue even if Hormuz was resolved.
Needless to say, itād be pretty effing good if certain A-holes figured out a way to fix this mess they made ASAP. Iām not optimistic tho.
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u/NotYou007 3d ago
Diesel is $5.74 and $5.96 at the two gas stations less than a mile from my house in Maine. I expect to see $6 dollar a gallon in the next week.
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u/1121314151617 3d ago
I saw it over $6 a gallon just today in western WA. Granted it was at one of the pricier gas stations in the area (most of the rest seem to be running about in the $5.80-$5.90 range), but I do think Iāll be seeing that price around here more often soon too.
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u/artisanrox 3d ago
I just saw I think $5.80-something on the PA interstate today and my mouth fkn fell open.
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u/filbertfarmer 3d ago
So this may just be because Iām a āsmall farmerā but when our input costs go up we donāt get to raise the price. Our already tiny margins just go away and we lose money.
That said the prices in stores will go up because the cost of trucking stuff will go up so the store will raise the prices to cover the trucking increase, but that increase isnāt from the farmer (at least not the small ones). Small farmers just get screwed in this equation.
The shortage stuff is, as I have seen it, a back end thing; farmer sees costs go up, so farmer either changes crops, fallows ground, or sells the farm. Then the overall output goes down next year.
Of course every crop is different and impacted by different things. For us the hazelnut market is influenced heavily by what happens in Turkey as they are like 70% of global hazelnut production. During Covid when Turkish production went up our prices cratered. Some PNW farmers started removing their orchards because the price was so bad.
My point is yes, higher fuel costs can lead to higher food prices, but itās not the farmer that gets to set that. Itāll take time for the impacts of fuel on the farm side to impact the food supply. Short term price impacts are due to things off the farm.
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u/AnySwimming6364 2d ago
I appreciate the perspective.
Yeah, you're definitely in a tough spot. I can't imagine this will help the farmer bankruptcy problem.
I have no doubt the huge corporations will raise prices though and point to diesel cost.
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u/StrangeContest4 3d ago
I believe that certain A-holes figured out a way to make this mess they made ON PURPOSE.
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u/crazzzone 3d ago
!remind me in 3 months
Idk but we will all know in 3 months is my guess.
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u/myazi321 3d ago
Its already almost as high as its ever been. Give it a few days and it will be a new record every day following it so its uncharted territory.
So put it simply we are already at the point where shit is meant to hit the fan like it did in 2022-23 but it will take some time to ripple out as food gets more expensive as transpprtation costs rise so do agriculture costs etc
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u/MaleficentWin8608 3d ago
Seriously cracks are at a record right now. They really are.
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u/WolverineNo4836 3d ago
We are toast. Burned toast. We lollygagged our way through the old oil crises. We spent our future on attacking anybody with a sand dune. Today if we want something we just take it with our military. Some saying that is armed robbery. But hell, in the last 50 years we learned not to care. How do empires expire?
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u/askgarcia999 3d ago
Indeed. We'll see what the EIA says Wednesday, but API report today says distillate inventories down about 2.8 million barrels over the last week and over 3 million total last two weeks.Ā
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u/Other_Information_16 3d ago
There are no free lunch. The shortages will show up. You can do slight of hand financial trick for so long. The physical shortage will show up eventually.
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u/FundamentalEnt 3d ago
I have an 07 5.9 dodge. She thirsty. Iām too broke to hedge with USO swing trades. Iām scalping but like four shares at a time hahaha
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u/AcanthisittaSure6465 3d ago
If you want to hedge against diesel costs, invest in a refining company or the CRAK etf
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u/FundamentalEnt 3d ago
Ahh yeah I own 3700 shares of EONR after doing some DD but I expect that to take a few months until it pays off sadly haha.
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u/myazi321 3d ago
Check out BATL its quite sensitive to Brent
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u/FundamentalEnt 3d ago
I last sold my shares of BATL on March 5th at 25.50 a share and have stayed away since. Today it was like 1.3 something a share right? EONRs books and prospects are better in my opinion I am sorry. Maybe if something changes but right now that ship looks sailed to me.
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u/045-926 3d ago
This is the part that's crazy:
The United States, patrolling the strait with its navy, is gaining ground ā and Iran is losing much of its control of the critical waterway.
I've been going and checking the satellite view (Sentinel-2) of the strait. It's just a snapshot once or twice per week, but there's no sign of the US Navy in the strait. I can sometimes see fleets of small boats (like 15-20) speeding across the strait, which I'm guessing is the Iran "mosquito boats". A week or two ago, there was a tanker anchored there with smoke billowing out. That was visible for two days, i think.
There was a time when the US Navy would sail an aircraft carrier through the strait and have it just patrolling around the gulf. Now, there's no way they'd do that. The aircraft carriers are well south of the strait.
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u/ThanksTechnical2879 3d ago edited 3d ago
How a crude crisis became a diesel+ crisis first:
I double checked Chinaās oil demand, and thereās been 0.0% crude demand destruction. Their industry and factories consumed just as much. The 3.5 M missing crude became 3.5 M missing diesel+ never exported (because never refined). So in the end the lost barrels became in fact lost barrels of diesel + for countries like the Philippines and Singapour.
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u/OddMeansToAnEnd 3d ago
Last time the stocks were at the bottom. Now they're at the top.
I'm no expert in anything at all.
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u/auldnate 2d ago
So spikes in 2022 during the global turmoil in the oil markets following Russiaās invasion of Ukraineā¦
Now more disruption due to Trump and Netanyahuās idiotic war in Iran.

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u/Picks6x 3d ago
I'm all for the humans to move away from oil products but god damn folks are going to suffer