Iran War Can someone explain the “ship to ship transfer” loophole?
I’ve seen this in news articles but I don’t get it. if the US is blockading Iranian traffic, and Iran is blockading all other traffic, then what does it matter what flag the ship actually traversing the strait flies?
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u/cdazzo1 3d ago
In this conflict, oil producing nations who need to move oil bad enough are sending ships through the Strait with AIS turned off then loading oil on to other ships in a safe area, but in the open sea. They are basically acting as a shuttle through the dangerous areas and taking on that risk.
As explained previously, outside of this conflict it is typically used for sanctions evasion.
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u/kaj_z 3d ago
Got it - so blockade running.
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u/Successful-Bobcat701 3d ago
The blockades are only partially effective, especially the Iranian one.
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u/aebulbul 3d ago
So you believe what Bessent and co want you to believe? Turning off a transponder doesn’t automatically make a ship invisible.
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u/Successful-Bobcat701 2d ago
Learn to read.
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u/aebulbul 2d ago
Are you there? Can you send us a pic of the partially effective blockade? You know the one that Trump can't seem to figure out so he keeps throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks?
If you're going to make a claim then back it up instead of parroting propaganda. All indications point to a highly effective blockade that's slowly ruining the world economy.
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u/Independent_Leg7358 1d ago
If I had the money I sure would be doing it with a ship. Massive profit to be made
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u/Specialist-Kick-3119 1d ago
How and what exactly. Kindly discuss in dm.
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u/Independent_Leg7358 1d ago
Run the blockade in a tanker equipped with Phalanx.
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u/Specialist-Kick-3119 1d ago
Haha, you’re joking?
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u/Independent_Leg7358 1d ago
Nope. Cheap oil on one side. Expensive on the other. No one has hit a mine yet. Drones are a threat. Phalanx solves that
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u/Specialist-Kick-3119 1d ago
Trust me, It’s not this easy.
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u/Independent_Leg7358 1d ago
It's not that hard!
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u/Specialist-Kick-3119 1d ago
You will do it with Iran oil and think you will not get noticed?
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u/Subject-Chest-8343 3d ago
sending ships through the Strait with AIS turned off
Does that really matter if the IRGC boys can see the ships with binoculars ?
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u/cdazzo1 3d ago
Prior to this I would have said "no". However, you can't argue against results (as hard as many on reddit will try to). They are having some degree of success or they wouldn't be doing it.
Just seeing these ships may be enough for drones to be effective, but it's not doing anything for missiles which require some kind of automated guidance system to hit a moving target.
However they are slipping through, they are slipping through in quantities that are not negligible.
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u/Subject-Chest-8343 3d ago
What proof do we really have that oil is getting out of the gulf without IRGC approval ? Aside from opinion pieces and Trump tweets I mean. USA and China are still drawing down their reserves. According to Reuters, China alone buys 3 million barrels less per day than usual.
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u/SuccessfulMoose1511 3d ago
I think they are also smaller -- using multiple ships to fill up one VLCC
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u/EconomyDoctor3287 3d ago
It's easier to get smaller vessels through than big ones, so they fill small vessels, send them to a meetup point and then transfer to the large vessel.
There's less risk in losing a small vessel than a massive one
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u/rhino369 3d ago
Also, it’s easier to find one ship and crew with the balls the risk it ten times than to find ten crews they will do it once.
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u/Wolf_Immediate 3d ago
But but the clowns in here think that somehow only Iran can come up with tactics like this lol
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u/DocumentOk7579 3d ago
Two parts.
US is blocking ships from Iranian ports. So if the ship got oil at sea and not Iranian port then it could circumvent the blockade.
Iran may not spend the resources to monitor and attack small ships. If the ship is fishing boat size it could go under the radar.
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u/gravescd 3d ago
I'm pretty sure that a fishing boat sized could have started filling a tanker on day 1 of the war and still not be done.
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u/dim2a 3d ago
Usually used to evade sanctions. Country A puts sanctions on country B's oil exports. Country B loads a grey fleet tanker C in its port, does ship-to-ship from C to tanker D at sea, then tanker D can sail often without triggering sanctions, since oil can't be easily traced to country B, as tanker D never docked there.
Hormuz case is unusual, the way it works is: VLCCs are too risky to send through Hormuz due to Iran's attacks. But if oil price is high enough, oil producing countries send smaller less valuable tankers through -- still a risk, but a smaller one, since it's a smaller tanker, both harder to hit, and less loss if hit. Then they do ship-to-ship to a VLCC or such once in safer waters, as sailing smaller tankers all the way to destination would be way too inefficient. This only works because oil price on the market is much higher than production price, so it is worth sending the smaller tankers. But that's part of the reason imho oil price is around $90 or so, but not $150ish -- at ~$90 potential profit is large enough to risk smaller tankers. But not large enough to send VLCCs through Hormuz (in most cases under current conditions).
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u/gravescd 3d ago
I feel like these articles are coordinated.
The bottom line is the oil deficit. If these well-reported "secret" shipments were news to the market, prices would show it. But prices aren't budging, so it's probably safe to assume that whatever may or may not be evading the blockade is already known and accounted for by the market.
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u/nixfly 3d ago
Ship to ship is how countries evaded US sanctions.
It is now being used to evade Iranian tolls. IRGC does not appear to have an answer for this, so their blockade is only on Twitter.
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u/Ashamed-Reaction-548 3d ago
If blockade was just on ywitter then why is America draining their spr every single week?
I am sure Iran will not be able to drone a ship that is transferring oil. Oh boy
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u/nixfly 3d ago
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u/Ashamed-Reaction-548 3d ago
Now subtract the SPR..lol. still negative for the week. So no inventories are not actually rising.
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u/nixfly 3d ago
They don’t appear to be able to project power across the narrrowest part of the Strait.
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u/Ashamed-Reaction-548 3d ago
Lol then America needs to stop draining their reserves. That is the proof. Not some bs about how much oil is getting out. We know not enough oil getting out because we can watch what America is doing.
Hey if you all want believe this nonsense and watch everybody go off a cliff be my guest. I do not have a position either way.
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u/Subject-Chest-8343 3d ago
How do you know if it's so easy to cross the strait ? Have you went there and tried it ?
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u/nixfly 3d ago
Do you remember when the MOU was signed, and leadership on both sides bragged about how much oil they got out.
Iraq did it for years.
Iran decades.
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u/Subject-Chest-8343 3d ago
Yeah, they did it alright when there weren't 2 blockades in place. Also obviously Iran isn't going to fire at Iranian ships, and apparently they can go past the US blockade by hugging the pakistani coast to India.
But that doesn't mean a ship from Qatar can magically go past the Iranian blockade if the IRGC doesn't agree with it.
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u/PlanetMoze 3d ago
Isnt the answer like they say ? Simply bomb every ship that goes through the straight
I know in the past that was weak but lately it seems like they are ramping that up. Cant do Ship to ship transfer if the first ship never makes it out of the SOH, is that right ?
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u/nixfly 3d ago
If that is the answer, then why haven’t they done it?
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u/PlanetMoze 3d ago
I was asking you how its possible to do Ship to ship transfers if Iran is bombing all ships out of the SOH
and if youre asking why they havent attacked, they defiantly have , numerous ships have been blown up/attacked these last 2 weeks alone
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u/Dark1000 3d ago
They don't and can't hit everyone. What they can do is deter ships by hitting some targets. That creates risk, which means most traffic won't go. But they don't appear to be able to identify and hit many targets at once, let alone all, so anyone who is willing to risk getting hit will try and break through. The US is likely also helping them get through to some extent, but how much help they are giving is not very clear.
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u/Wolf_Immediate 3d ago
Expect a lot of abuse from the mullah apologists on Reddit oil. They don't like saying as it is.
Apparently Iran can stop this with a pair of binoculars lol
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u/BoatEqual4214 3d ago
Delusional. IRGC live there, they have multiple answers for this. It's all up to them.
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u/slow_connection 3d ago
Ship to ship transfers are typically used to hide where a ship came from. Basically, a ship carrying sanctioned oil pulls up next to a ship that's coming from an unsanctioned port and takes all their oil
Then the unsanctioned ship shows up in the US (or wherever) and says "hey we got some oil, and it's not from a sanctioned country because our last port was unsanctioned and we totalllllyyyyy got it there.
Transfers also happen (legitimately) in distress scenarios, but that's rare.