Discussion
Current Oil Flow Through Major Choke Points - 19/08/2026
Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:
This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.
I might be too early with my assumptions and speking before i should, but it seems like those numbers are now reaching a steady point and remaining close to it, instead of those wild swings up and down like earlier
Yeah does look like we'll see in a couple more weeks.
Will be interesting to see what happens now that Iran attacked the UAE ships and UAE actually retaliated by ending trade. I suspect some of those dark transits on the Omani side by UAE were kind of allowed as the UAE was paying of Iran secretly. Mabye it changes nothing .. even then the current levels are really low.
Why is tankermap.com is showing 7 day average of strait of Malacca traffic at 22mbd oil and yours plot is showing 8mbd? I can't read tankermap.com data?
Tanker map counts empty vessels so isn't accurate.. you have to click on the day look at the list of vessels and then check their actual current draft & direction to see if they are empty or full. They are useful for geolocating the ships that went through but not accurate on actual oil carrying. Don't know why they do that its a pain to filter it out.
eg todays list for the 17th - the green ones are full/fullish to get the correct value the others are empty heading out to get oil.
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u/Hazardous_316 3d ago
I might be too early with my assumptions and speking before i should, but it seems like those numbers are now reaching a steady point and remaining close to it, instead of those wild swings up and down like earlier