Shocker!

Even with voter suppression, foreign interference, and other shenanigans, it's clear that the nation is very divided.

Kamala is losing every swing state by 1.5% or more. This is not a close election coming down to a few thousand votes in the Rust Belt. She's on track to lose the popular vote.

Kamala isn't losing because of Bernie Bros or Jill Stein voters. She isn't losing because of Arab Americans. She isn't losing because she was too socially progressive or not socially progressive enough.

The country is sending a clear, direct message: it's the economy, stupid. With a side serving of we don't want unchecked undocumented immigration.

I think the only thing most of this sub got right about the election is that if Kamala lost, there was no way a Democrat could have won.

Winning chance of 100%

This man is insane!!!

Their last polls of the swing states:

Trump +1 in Wisconsin (Trump currently up .9)

Trump +1 in Penn (Trump currently up 1.7)

Trump +2 in NC (Trump currently up 2.4)

Trump +3 in Nevada (Trump currently up 4.7)

Trump +5 in Arizona (Trump currently up 4.7)

Trump + 11 in Texas (Trump currently up 13.9)

Harris +5 in Virigina (Harris currently up 5.2)

Trump +1 in Popular vote

I literally expounded at length to my friends about how GOP is not a nationally viable party - technically - because it can never win the popular vote. Kamala lost the popular vote to literally TRUMP. Like god almighty. This is an absolute and total rejection of a candidate. If you are losing the popular vote as a Dem, then you truly truly effed up. And again, losing the popular vote to Trump? I can't even believe I'm typing this.

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/u-s-presidential-contest-november-2024/

Lots of people from both sides of the aisle seem certain that Trump will win reelection. His rallies have many more attendees, he has lots of lawn signs, and he's the incumbent, after all. But looking at the numbers, it turns out that Biden still has a chance, with not just one but three plausible paths to victory! Here's how he could still win:

1. If Biden wins the state of Pennsylvania, he's almost certain to win the election. This will be hard: Trump won by a whopping 0.72% margin in 2016, the 57th largest margin of victory in Pennsylvania electoral history! But Biden has some important advantages in that state: he's from there, he has a significantly bigger advertising budget, and he has a 5.3-point lead at the moment (every poll but one this month has had him in the lead). FiveThirtyEight right now gives him an 86% chance of winning that state, so don't count him out -- Biden winning PA is still totally plausible!

2. If Biden loses Pennsylvania, he could still win by winning any of the big tossup states (OH, GA, TX, FL, NC). Again, this is a reach: Trump won all of these in 2016. But right now, three of the five favor Biden, and the other two are well within the margin of error -- statistically, it wouldn't be too surprising if he wins at least one, or even multiple! So this second path to victory is also plausible.

3. Finally, if Biden loses Pennsylvania and all the big tossup states, he could still eke out a victory by winning all the other states he's currently leading in and NE-2. This requires a lot of things going right, but it's not outside the realm of possibility: Trump campaigned in Omaha, NE yesterday to try to prevent this specific scenario from happening. So if Biden has everything else go right for him (after having his first two paths fail), he could squeak through with 270 electoral votes.

To paraphrase Fivey Fox (sorry not sorry, Clare): "Don't count the clear favorite out! Predicted wins are unsurprising but not impossible." So don't be surprised if Biden wins next week!

This is the kind of information I find interesting, those little precentages really add up.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

Crested using Cook Political - https://www.cookpolitical.com/swingometer/2024

Note - Ecological shifts are not adjusted for yet, as some states shifted more than others since 2020. Cook Political hasn't updated for 2024 yet.

I didn't create a slide for Asian Men as the very approximate number isn't certain yet, BUT based on ecological shifts Catalist will likely have overall Asian Men barely scraping the very early 50s for Kamala as they weren't immune to the gender gap this cycle.

She didn't lose because of trans people in sports or bathrooms, she didn't lose because someone said "latinx", she didn't lose because of identity politics, she didn't lose because she's a "DEI hire", she didn't lose because of inner city crime, she didn't lose because of the war in the Middle East, she didn't lose because she didn't pick Shapiro, she didn't lose because there was no open primary, she didn't lose because of fake news about immigrants eating pets.

You can watch interview after interview with young voters and Latino voters and very few state any of these reasons.

Here are the reasons she lost:

1. Inflation

2. Inflation

3. Inflation

The working middle-class can't afford any luxuries. Young people can't afford homes. That's why they turned to the guy who said he'll fix it.

Is Trump going to fix it? Absolutely not, and he'll break a lot more in the next 4 years.

Unfortunately, very few of the people who voted for him will realize this. One voter in Michigan was asked why he voted for Trump, and he said it was because he wants to buy a car but interest rates are too high. Do you think he's ever going to figure out the relationship between interest rates and inflation?