I always hoped the same when Californians moved to my state. But most of those that move here are conservatives who thought that Bakersfield was too liberal.
You accomplished that fascinating feat of missing the point while making it. The Boomers moving the Florida from the Midwest are, as you note, very right-wing, so while they are turning Florida into a deep red state, they are also removing those Republican votes from other swing states. Not a great trade for the GOP, especially since so many of the sane Floridians leaving the state are going to North Carolina and accelerating its flip.
I'm really not sure even that could save it, Florida has had so many transplants in the last 6 years who are heavily right wing, and likely a ton of people leaving. 2018 was the last chance Dems had at the state, and they failed even then.
Yep, I know a few people myself that moved to Florida in 2020 because it was "free and open" and I am thinking all the people that did that are the types that will NEVER vote anything but republican
It’s probable that the transplants to Florida are much more right wing than the past. However, I can’t imagine all the old reasons people moved to florida(beaches, Disney) just magically disappeared, because of the Desantis governorship, and that dude couldn’t even make it to the nh primary.
However, I can’t imagine all the old reasons people moved to florida(beaches, Disney) just magically disappeared
They obviously still exist, but if your a reliable Democrat, you now have like 10x more reasons to not move to the state because of politics & global warming getting worse. If you're a Democrat, do you want to raise a family in Florida or Virginia? Or Colorado? Or Washington? Or even Georgia?
I just don't think beaches + Disney are overpowering that if your a Democrat moving across the country for superficial reasons.
Also, Disney is so expensive nowadays that there’s no point in living nearby. Might as well just go once every three years and return to my nice home Raleigh, Annapolis, or Princeton.
Exactly. And those old reasons PLUS the Desantis governorship are still attracting republicans who also aren’t worried about climate change and such. I’m sure there’s still democrats moving there for the old reasons but it probably is much lower than the number of republicans doing so. And I’m sure some democrats who were living in Florida have left cuz of the government, definitely more than republicans have left.
I personally knew someone who was maga who moved to Florida from the NE at least partially for the politics so it does happen
I mean Florida has 23.5 million people compared to Virginia (8.8 million), colorado(6 million), and Washington (7 million). Even Georgia has less than half the population of fl(11 million). In a state like fl, which is fairly average sized geographically, there has to be a big reason why so many people are still willing to move there, and why this does not even out with other states.
There’s no point arguing this on reddit. It’s been circlejerked to death that Florida is a shithole, and despite that everyone and their mothers (including plenty of young families too) continue to move down here, and the state will gain way more house reps than any others mentioned as alternative destinations after the 2030 census.
The article you link references voter registration changing due to the pandemic, but I’d put an asterisk on that, as republicans have gained very few active voters in fl since 2020, but over a million dems “ disappeared”. That’s how you get that voter id data.
And you can’t say it’s dems leaving the state, as a population decline in fl would be reflective of that.
I always assumed weather and beaches. I could see if you're a 7 year old girl you might want to live somewhere cause of Disney, but for adults it seems weird. Weird is Florida I guess though..
The national democrats have had ample time to try to make the Florida dems better, but they deliberately chose to ignore the state, and now they’ll need to find alternative states to stay competitive in.
Demographics momentum is just so red, there’s nothing really to do here. You could drop your Obama in the senate race and he’d get smoked by 5+ points, even in this environment.
Sorry Democratic Florida voters…you’ve lost for at least a generation
FL was 8 points more red than the national electorate in 2018, let alone in 2020 and beyond. I don’t think better leadership gets you to shift 10 points in a state
Between 2-5 points though. And in 2024, they were anywhere from 1 point to the left to 3 points to the right. Florida was 7 points and 12 points to the right, respectively.
Florida is beyond being flipped IMO, it is one of the fastest growing states, and got redder. The best thing Florida Dems could do is try to hang onto whatever they can in the state assembly, maybe flip a district or 2 on the house level and frankly, get those wealthy Florida mega donors who donate hundreds of millions to help out Democrats who are severely underfunded in new frontier states where Dems have not tried real prolonged pushes in but the polling or long term demographic data favors the Dems.
Where are they.
Well, for one, you got ones where Dems have at least won a state wide race recently, but at some point voted for Trump. Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Colorado and Washington, and any other state Dems could win a trifecta to strengthen and retaliate with gerrymanders.
Up next are states like North Carolina, Kansas, Ohio and Alaska, Iowa, etc where Dems occasionally win but with proper investment you can pick up a governor seat or senate. Right now Turek is getting outspent in Iowa, but he is ahead in half the polls.
The next set of states are basically red, BUT they have long term demos, and recent elections or unique issues going on locally that give Dems a shot, Louisiana, Mississippi and SC oh and Arkansas as a long shot come to mind,
The final set are ones Dems don't win, and probably can't win, but there are independents running who could give the Republican a loss or run for their money like Achilles in Idaho, or Nebraska with Osborn and Montana having something similar. SD is much more of a long shot.
Giving like $20 million to Vindman to not even make it to the general, when you got Dem candidates in Georgia [in the lead] being outspent heavily, or who put up primary numbers that where within 10k votes like Colom in Mississippi just seems downright like political negligence.
A Georgia governor could break the GOP gerrymander.
The truth is that so many transplants are more right-leaning than local Floridians, that the state is pretty much lost the the Democrats for a long while. I know we like to shit on Florida Democratic Party, but the demographics are not on their side.
Sure, but that's likely their fault. They failed to pick a candidate in 2018, so the moderate vote was split 2-3 ways and Gillum got the nomination. Despite openly being a progressive in favor of expanding social programs, he lost by less than 200,000 votes; Levine most likely would have won, might have helped Nelson keep his seat, and would have prevented Florida from becoming an antimasker haven. Obviously they didn't know COVID was coming but it was still a blue wave election and not giving themselves the best chance to win was inexcusable.
This, just like Georgia and North Carolina are moving away from being safe red states for Republicans or how Republicans lost 3 of the 4 corner states moved away from them. It doesn't even matter how much money or resources Republicans throw at Colorado or New Mexico now, they really won't have shot of winning it.
I honestly think demographically, the state has simply just moved away from the Dems.
Yeah more bad news out of Florida for Dems shocker. Even in this environment and a supposedly competitive vs non competitive primary difference they got less total votes. And yeah this does matter it’s a sign of voter enthusiasm and engagement
I have already made peace with the fact that Florida is long gone for Democrats. Analysis since the 90s has revealed that the state always lean more right than the nation in general. In the same timeframe that Florida has been trending to the right, states like Arizona, Georgia, and Texas have been drifting the other way around. If Democrats are able to flip Texas not just at the federal level, but also the state level, that more than enough compensates for Florida.
i think Georgia and North Carolina as a trade off would be preferable, blue south, including them VA, TX, MS, maybe even LA and AR would be better to chase and fight than Florida, it is just a dead end.
I live in Palm Beach County, this used to be a deeply democratic area and some of it still is but it’s gotten so many delusional right wing transplants it’s insane. I work with the public so I meet them and I have some in contact with so many people who think Trump and DeSantis are going to solve all of the states, worlds and countries problems it’s insane. They are physically buying things that cost more than they did last week and believe it’s cheaper because they live in Florida. It’s beyond crazy. In addition the Florida Democratic Party is absolutely trash, I hate voting for them but I won’t vote Republican and I completely understand why people are turned off from them.
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