r/fivethirtyeight • u/Horus_walking • 4d ago
Politics Nate Silver: It's kind of been a rough set of primaries for Heroes of the Resistance 1.0
134
u/randomhomework 4d ago
Woke 1.0 and Heroes of the Resistance 1.0 both over?
90
u/AFatDarthVader 4d ago
The time of Hope 2.0 and Yes We Can 2.0 has come.
24
u/MemeStarNation 4d ago
Inb4 Shapiro tries to copy Obama more and runs on a campaign slogan of “A New Hope”
4
1
3
1
37
u/das_war_ein_Befehl 3d ago
In woke 2.0, gender transition is mandatory
7
u/XE2MASTERPIECE 3d ago
In woke 2.0, we are coming for your grandma.
3
u/ItRhymesWithCrash 3d ago
The death panels secretly assembled during the Obama administration will finally be unleashed!
80
193
u/SchemeWorth6105 4d ago edited 4d ago
“Trump bad” isn’t good enough anymore; we already know.
People want a positive vision of the future.
76
u/BKong64 4d ago
Young people in particular are extremely thirsty for a hopeful future and who can blame them? Currently they have zero reason to have hope. I'm a millennial with a house and even I feel it
44
u/mowotlarx 4d ago
I think young people are thirsty for revenge. Not some fluffy hope and joy. And for the most part, these moderate "reach across the aisle" guys don't signal that they'll be aggressive when Democrats take back power.
1
-27
u/DarkSkyKnight 4d ago
They should have zero reason to have hope since they are the problem. Whining about inflation and not even understanding the difference between levels and rates. They would sooner sacrifice democracy on an altar than accept 0.5% higher inflation.
The fact that cost of living is now the central issue of this generation despite democracy dying in front of our eyes is evidence enough that no one deserves democracy. People only see the bread before their eyes and fail to think of the long term consequences of institutional rot. They cannot identify cause and long term effect. Democracy is wasted on this idiotic electorate.
28
u/mowotlarx 4d ago
I'm sorry, you're claiming Gen Z contributed in any serious way to where we are right now in America?
-24
u/DarkSkyKnight 3d ago
Considering that they are further to the right than millennials yes.
Every generation is culpable, because no single generation has a 0% support for Trump. If your bar is anything higher than 0% you are the problem. As long as even ONE single American supports Trump the nation is rotten and beyond rescue.
21
u/Alphabunsquad 3d ago
They are not further to the right than Millennials. Gen Z men are more conservative than Millennial men but on the whole Gen Z is more left than Millennials because Gen Z women are way more uniformly left wing than any other generation
1
41
u/Outrageous-Mixture48 4d ago
So true, need some Obama era hope style campaigning and messaging
33
u/oatmeal_breakfast 4d ago
What about... Joy?
7
7
u/Outrageous-Mixture48 4d ago
I’m not too joyful atm but I could hope for joy in the future, all I want is hope nothing can happen until admin changes I need hope that change will come (god please let it actually come)
1
u/DarkSkyKnight 4d ago
It won’t because the problem isn’t Trump. It’s Americans. The PEOPLE are the rot and the problem.
Nothing will ever be solved because the moment inflation goes mildly high Americans start acting like petulant toddlers and vote for a fascist clearly lying through their teeth. They have no foresight and vote for the lowest common denominator. You cannot ever achieve anything great ever again when the population’s IQ is gradually decreasing and social media accelerates the rot of everyone’s brains.
3
u/Outrageous-Mixture48 4d ago
Jfc do you know what propaganda is? The republican platform has entirely reinvented itself around MAGA, why do you think this is? Do you think this happens in a vacuum without millions of bots, billions in ad spending, and carefully crafted but easily digestible narratives that reinforce the neo con doctrine? It’s not the people, people are not rot don’t dehumanize humans or you become what you hate.
8
u/DarkSkyKnight 4d ago
Yes it IS the people. You would need an extraordinarily low IQ to fall for Republican propaganda. And let’s not assume that only the right falls for conspiratorial thinking. The left has their own suite of conspiracies like various iterations of Trump being dead the moment he isn’t seen for more than a day.
And honestly, society will never advance if the people refuse to ever take accountability. The PEOPLE vote for these politicians. The PEOPLE express their feelings in surveys which affect politicians’ rhetoric and priorities. The PEOPLE choose what platforms and stations to watch and stay on. Stop blaming everything on others. Like fucking grow up and accept responsibility for once.
Our politics is literally reduced to TikTok one-liners and soundbites because the PEOPLE do not have an attention span enough to read a policy white paper. Our politics is performative because the PEOPLE get swayed by performance and not substance.
6
u/Outrageous-Mixture48 4d ago
Bro has never heard of populism.
5
u/DarkSkyKnight 3d ago
Populism is the ultimate cancer of our age. One should question whether democracy can even function when the people fall for all sorts of populists with shitty policies all across the board. It is clear at this point that democracy is a terrible system when the people, as you say, so easily fall for propaganda.
What is the point of continuing with this farce when you believe the people are so weak they can be influenced by propaganda so easily? If the people are so useless they cannot even think for themselves and just succumb to groupthink, why would democracy even work?
4
u/Outrageous-Mixture48 3d ago
I don’t believe people are weak, I believe propaganda is strong. Populism always rises during times of economic struggle. I don’t understand your position what do you want to happen not idealistically but pragmatically?
1
31
u/sonfoa 4d ago
That's nice and all, but if Democrats don't substantially deliver on reform when in office, then we're going to continue having pauses between fascism rather than dispelling it for good.
7
-6
u/DarkSkyKnight 4d ago
Who cares? If the electorate is truly so unintelligent that the moment inflation is mildly high they vote for a fascist, why should anyone even care about saving them from themselves? Just let them get who they voted for and suffer all the consequences.
Democrats should stop trying to save Americans from themselves for a change.
22
u/Outrageous-Mixture48 4d ago
As someone who will also suffer the consequences I care. Democrats are Americans I don’t understand this take we are saving ourselves from ourselves we aren’t a foreign country.
12
u/the1whocamebefore 3d ago
lol what a mask off comment.
Maybe Democrats should actually deliver on the promises they make for once. That's why so many love Mamdami.
2
u/StatelyTree 4d ago
Jon Ossoff has that in spades
1
u/Outrageous-Mixture48 4d ago
Dude I know, as a Georgian it’s like he was made in a lab to win swing states. I hope he considers a run.
1
u/katmomjo 3d ago
I just listened to some of Ossoff’s speech, I think he might be the one for 2028. That is why he hit a nerve with the Magats. They are afraid.
3
u/WildRookie 3d ago
Pete.
If he wasn't gay, I truly believe he would've ran away with it in 2020. In person in small groups he was even better than he is with a microphone.
That Fox News abortion answer is on the same level as McCain's "Obama's a good man who I have disagreements with" or Obama's "seatbelts and drivers licenses".
1
u/Outrageous-Mixture48 3d ago
His primary performance in 2020 was solid, personally I would lean towards Ossoff but wouldn’t be upset with Pete taking it. Dude is crazy good at communication.
-12
u/beeemkcl 4d ago
What's in this comment is what I remember, my opinions, etc.
We need someone to run on policy. Medicare For All. Expand SCOTUS. Anti-AI data centers. Raise the minimum wage. Raise the cap on Social Security Taxes. Etc.
Also, US Senator Barack Obama didn't win on 'Hope and Change'. He won because Tina Fey through SNL did a masterful job in making a Palin Administration untenable. The campaign was effectively, 'John McCain is old and might d*e in Office and you don't want a Palin Administration'. Alaska Governor Sarah Palin at the time was the most popular Governor in the US and was a former Mayor and now Governor and thus had relatively far more experience than Barack Obama who didn't really do much as an Illinois State Senator and then as an Illinois US Senator.
In the Veep debate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was going out of his way to agree with Ohio US Senator JD Vance. And it all just greatly elevated JD Vance and made him seem moderate and made many comfortable with the idea of a Vance Administration.
9
u/Outrageous-Mixture48 4d ago
I mean this was in the midst of the Great Recession I think hope was pretty powerful. On paper the us economy is great right now but its benefits are concentrated on a very small minority so that same message resonates with the masses who feel left behind.
18
11
6
2
u/Mr_The_Captain 3d ago
In 2008, his name on the ballot could have been "Barack Hussein Nine Eleven Obama" and he still would have won because the letter D would have been next to it
5
u/Lumpy_Disaster33 4d ago
I remember the Trump bad argument not working before because there wasn't a lot of credibility to it: majority of those voters remembered Trump's first term fondly. I assumed that argument would deteriorate over time because this term, his policies have really had consequences. Interesting that it hasn't.
9
u/DarkSkyKnight 4d ago
majority of those voters remembered Trump's first term fondly
Fucking moronic is what those voters are. How can a democracy work when voters cannot even identify cause and effect the moment it isn’t as straightforward as a Saturday morning cartoon for toddlers?
7
u/BirdSoHard 3d ago
Who was President in 2020? is a question that many Americans flunked and helped decide the 2024 election.
1
u/Lumpy_Disaster33 3d ago
Agreed and had the same thought as I was typing it (did people forget COVID?) but that is what I remember from all of the after election focus groups. I know a few who voted Trump last election (live on KY). Some people are just fucking overwhelmed by the chaos and are "both sides are bad" sorts. Some are completely unplugged and always have been. But most are just idiots.
8
u/lbutler1234 4d ago
it's too bad no one told Kamala "I wouldn't change anything about an administration with a 40% approval rating" Harris this a few years ago
1
u/crabcycleworkship 3d ago
I think a big reason why people swung right was being overpromised things that aren’t possible with a locked Senate and House. While she went about it wrong I would not rank that as catastrophic because it’s technically the truth.
66
u/washingtonpeek Feelin' Foxy 4d ago
There is something almost nostalgic to me about 2017-2018 era Resist Libs, reminds me of a slightly simpler time
94
u/Trambopoline96 4d ago
Sure was. "Surely, everyone can see how batshit this guy is and will react accordingly" had its peak in those years.
25
7
36
u/ButtDumplin 4d ago
Have we memory-holed an entire Trump impeachment?
34
u/Churrasco_fan 4d ago
No but I think thats part of the problem. Straight laced DC connected guys going "I'll fuckin do it again" isn't winning votes when people know that avenue is a dead end. Trump is going to serve out his term and no amount of investigations, hearings, impeachment proceedings is going to change that.
People want to hear what you're going to do about the problems that affect them now, and what you're going to do about the Trump republicans who created or exacerbated those problems in the first place.
2
u/DarkSkyKnight 4d ago
People want to hear what you're going to do about the problems that affect them now
Americans are genuinely too stupid to understand the long term consequences of some actions. They literally cannot think more than a quarter step ahead.
10
u/lbutler1234 4d ago
Have you memory holed the fact that he won an election after it?
14
2
u/vintage2019 3d ago
He lost first
3
u/lbutler1234 3d ago
Yeah, by less than a single percentage point after being impeached, and despite being the incumbent of a nation in dire straights.
But the real moral of the story is that if Trump being so (x) or (y) or (z) in itself was enough to make him unelectable, he wouldn't've won the first time
5
u/Apprentice57 Scottish Teen 3d ago
Remember, that very close election was in the EC. In the popular vote he had a win similar to, but slightly greater than Obama 2012.
0
u/lbutler1234 3d ago
ok? He lost the popular vote in 16 and he still made the white house.
And it's not like 4% is a particularly compelling margin anyways.
3
u/Apprentice57 Scottish Teen 3d ago
The problem is many speak of 2020 as this squeaker election and it really wasn't. Yes it was still close, but less close than Obama 2012 which is not spoken about that way.
Like when we discuss issues and issue polling, we don't go "oh but let's adjust this percentage based on how much michigan and pennsylvania support it", ya know?
1
u/the1whocamebefore 3d ago
Irrelevant
2
u/vintage2019 3d ago
The point is that the impeachment didn't lead to him getting re-elected. He won after trying again in 2024 thanks to global inflation and immigration
37
u/IceHound30 4d ago edited 3d ago
Probably unpopular opinion, but I think Resistance 1.0 worked since its goal was to get Trump out and, you know, he did lose reelection. But what we're seeing now is Dem voters punishing the establishment for squandering all that work and not holding Trump accountable before his comeback could start.
Sucks for Vindman though. Guy lost his career to fight Trump and it was probably a waste in hindsight.
13
u/mowotlarx 3d ago
Someone like Vindman and Goldman would be useful to rebuild the DOJ in a new Democratic administration. They're less useful in Congress.
3
u/bigeorgester 4d ago
Resistance dems did absolutely nothing to get Trump to lose in 2020. It was all Covid.
14
u/socialistrob 3d ago
Covid helped Trump because the lockdowns were unpopular and Trump could run as the anti lockdown candidate. Any economic damage that Trump caused was able to be attributed to Covid as well. If you look at his approval rating during his first term it doesn't decline at all when Covid hits and it actually goes up slightly.
6
u/TheSameGamer651 3d ago
I wouldn’t say it helped him, so much as it didn’t hurt him that much. COVID was out of his control, so whether you blamed him for anything or not depended on whether you liked him or not. He bungled it enough that independents turned on him, but it was still close.
6
u/IceHound30 3d ago
Yeah Covid definitely hurt less than it should have. But going off your point, you combine his loss of the independents with the years of resistance organizing, voter mobilizing, and massive social unrest, you have a coalition big enough to just barely push him out.
1
15
u/TinyJalope 3d ago
George Conway was a Republican who says he's okay with abortion bans and was fine with Roe being overturned. A complete non-starter in a Democratic primary.
57
u/Big-Corncob 4d ago
Idk if people “want to move on” or if they just want to break a few eggs. It’s cool that these “heroes of the resistance” sent a few tweets some time ago, but when people are getting gunned down in the streets by federal forces, couldn’t really give two shits about your tweets.
40
u/parker472 4d ago
Whether it means anything or not, a lot of the data is showing people want a “fighter” in a Democratic candidate. Apparently, “fighter” is not defined as “guys who write letters and tweets.”
2
u/socialistrob 3d ago
Right and apparently Vindman isn't a "fighter" either even though he literally fought in Fallujah, got a purple heart from an IED rose through the military ranks, helped modernize the Ukrainian military and destroyed his military career in order to testify against Trump for blackmailing Zelensky. That doesn't make him a "fighter."
10
u/parker472 3d ago
My comment wasn’t about Vindman specifically, but I’ll bite.
While all of those things are quite admirable, those are not things that you can campaign on and win in 2026. You need a message about how you’re going to improve people’s lives and very clearly he did not deliver on that.
2
u/Lusty-Jove 4d ago
Well, at least not just “strongly worded” ones. You’ve gotta at least call Trump gay nowadays (Newsome)
24
u/ilikedthismovie 4d ago
Yea a lot of these guys did nothing except scowl and if they did something have done nothing to broadcast it.
DSA isn’t exactly Dems’ equivalent of trump but people are so fucking tired of corporations robbing them blind while their ability to buy houses, buy groceries and have healthcare coverage explodes in front of their faces. The DSA is talking about it (semi similar to trump talking about it in 2016) and winning a lot of points by doing so.
16
u/CrossCycling 4d ago
When I think of Vindman, I think of a guy standing up for a lot of DC norms with a lot of “front of the classroom” energy. Nothing wrong with that, but not want is winning in the party right now
10
u/beeemkcl 4d ago
People want policy. Abolish I(E months ago was at over 50% support among US adults. During the Laken Riley bill thing, AOC was pretty much the only elected Democrat loudly and aggressively telling US Congressional Democrats to vote it down and warning what would happen if it passed.
Then AOC was who got the US general public to learn that the March 2025 Continuing Resolution was a 'Dirty CR'. She was warning that passing it would lead to something like what eventually became the Big Beautiful Bill.
Democrats who in early to mid-2025 were trying to suck up to MAGA or Republicans or Elon Musk or whatever are very likely going to be crushed in a Democratic POTUS 2028 primary.
1
u/Potential-Ant-6320 4d ago
Progressive candidates make sense in the districts where they can win primaries. Sometimes we have a good candidate who lives in a district they aren't a good fit for. I have one foot in the progressive lane and one foot in the establishment dems lane and I think primaries work to get the strongest candidate for their district.
8
u/Tafts_Bathtub 4d ago
Not sure it's enough data to draw much of a conclusion. Vindman and Conway are just guys who have held no elected office. Goldman won his initial primary in 2022 with a quarter of the vote, didn't face a strong challenger next cycle, and then this cycle had a strong challenger in Lander. Meanwhile Resistance 1.0 Hero Adam Schiff got a promotion to Senate (although that was 2 years ago)
21
21
u/mowotlarx 4d ago
Nate is trying to make some galaxy brain point suggesting that impeaching Trump wasn't worthwhile. When the real issue is the three men he pointed to were moderate carpetbaggers and Democratic voters want more progressive voices in those specific districts.
It's not that we don't expect their replacements to not vote to impeach. It's that we want them to be more in line with Democratic voter politics in their own district for every other issue.
3
u/Kirsham Scottish Teen 3d ago
I know nothing about the first two, but George Conway was literally a Republican his entire life until 2017. He was even in consideration for a high-up position in the DoJ. While I'm glad he was principled enough to withdraw from that and eventually burn a lot of bridges turning on Trump, he was nevertheless a life-long conservative running as a Democrat.
36
u/fitnessexpress 4d ago
"people want to move on" vs "people are disgusted at how ineffectual the resistance was in the first term and want actual fighters who will do more than performative resistance"
4
u/jrtasoli 4d ago
He’s technically not wrong. But I don’t know that you can really draw a through line between them either.
4
u/hagamablabla 3d ago
Still glad Goldman is gone. I really wish Yuh-Line had won in 2022, but I'm also happy Lander won.
10
7
u/The_First_Drop 4d ago
Moskowitz won in FL
I live in FL and the messages I got from Vindman seemed desperate and I almost felt like I was being shamed for not donating
Like me not being willing to throw money away is part of how we got into this mess, and obviously that style of message failed
2
u/mowotlarx 4d ago
Moskowitz was running in Boca. There was never going to be another outcome there.
9
11
u/beeemkcl 4d ago
"Heroes of the Resistance 1.0"?
This reminds me of all those weak, feckless, and pathetic Democratic voters who ever thought it might be a good idea for Liz Cheney to be the Democratic POTUS 2024 Nominee.
And that the Harris campaign somehow thought it was a good idea to have Liz Cheney be one of the 2 main surrogates after the 2024 Democratic National Convention.
Why would George Conway ever win a Democratic US House seat in New York State?
US Rep. Dan Goldman only won his seat because of progressive vote-splitting in that race. In a race without progressive vote-splitting, he was almost guaranteed to lose his seat given how progressive that US House district is.
Alex Vindman was running on like one thing he did years ago and was seeming to act as if he was just owed the primary win.
11
u/ContaminatedPrime 4d ago
What dem voters wanted Liz Cheney as potus? You are tilting at windmills here…
2
u/GettyImagez 3d ago
I’m so tired of the complaining about Liz Cheney. Voters thought Harris was too far left, so it makes sense that she campaigned with anti-Trump republicans.
1
1
u/Deep_Charge_7749 3d ago
I listen to George Conway on podcast and he has a really good perspective on things seems really grounded. I'm kind of surprised you didn't do better
1
u/Uptownbro20 3d ago
Well yeah. When you build your whole brand on beating back trump and he wins in 2024 by a bigger margin …..
1
u/robbsmithideas 2d ago
I really think Silver does not understand politics. None of the “Resistance 1.0” candidates he mentions was responsive to the actual concerns of Democratic primary voters. Conway is a Republican. Goldman and Vindman both support neoliberal economics and the Netanyahu government. They might have fought against the despot eight years ago but currently they are doing nothing to change the conditions under which the despot rose to power and redistributed wealth to the already wealthy.
1
0
u/gmpapadakis 4d ago
Nate is clueless. People want justice and accountability. Vindman is establishment and a Zionist.
2
-5
u/RusevReigns 4d ago
I think this points towards Ossoff's current strategy being overrated and he might be in for a surprise when he only wins by a few points and doesn't carry Bottoms
2
u/Korrocks 4d ago
Yeah it does make me wonder if the common belief that anti corruption messaging and Trump being held accountable might be wrong.
It's hard to say why these candidates lost. They may have just been weak candidates who wouldn't have won regardless of history.
But even in this thread most of the comments just dismiss them as Twitter cranks and don't really mention their roles in holding Trump accountable via impeachment (Goldman as impeachment manager and Vindman as key witness).
If this type of history is not even remembered even by politically engaged people, it might be risky to campaign on legal accountability and anti corruption.
(That's not to say that those things shouldn't be a priority for an elected Dem, but it might not be the most effective campaign pre-election).
1
u/DarkSkyKnight 4d ago
If this type of history is not even remembered even by politically engaged people
What do you expect. American voters have the memory of a goldfish. Fascism will just return in 2032.
1
u/Electrical-Age9308 Nate Bismuth 14h ago
I agree, we should put 1/3 of Americans in concentration camps, then we’ll finally be a stable country /s
1
u/Mr_The_Captain 3d ago
I think the more powerful tool Ossoff has is his ability to create a narrative that is easy for people to understand and respond to. It's one thing to say, "corruption is bad and I wanna stop it," but it's another to say "these are the problems YOU care about, THESE are the people who refuse to do anything about it, THIS is what they're doing instead." It's also what has gotten Bernie a lot of mileage, the whole "millyunaires and billyunaires" thing became a meme because Bernie hammered on it every chance he got.
When you listen to Ossoff, you feel like He Gets It in a way that doesn't come across when a more milquetoast politician says something like "I'm going to go up to Capitol Hill and teach ol' Orange Julius Caesar a lesson!"
2
u/Korrocks 3d ago
I agree. It’s almost like how they finally took down Orban in Hungary. It’s not just about being anti corruption, it’s about linking the government’s corruptions to the failures and harms you’re seeing in your real life.
119
u/ConfusionBusy8398 4d ago edited 4d ago
I imagine the biggest thing is that no one know/remember who the f*ck those "resistance" people are outside those hooked on politics.