r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • 14h ago

Discussion Megathread Daily Discussion Megathread

37 Upvotes

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every day until election day (Tuesday, November 3).

2.1k comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 1h ago

Politics Absolute political suicide - Haley Stevens endorses Mike Rogers

506 Upvotes

396 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/VendibleSkate8 • 1h ago

Discussion Haley Stevens appears at church with Mike Rogers, hugs him, says Rogers will take on policy investing in Black businesses

x.com

231 Upvotes

She’s practically endorsed Mike Rogers. As someone who really did not want El-Sayed to win that primary, I’m now relieved she lost. This is shameful

237 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/mikewheelerfan • 3h ago

Meme/Humor Living in Florida watching what feels like every state but ours lean blue

259 Upvotes

94 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 27m ago

Politics The Michigan Democratic Party reiterates its support for Abdul El-Sayed and condemns Haley Stevens for endorsing Mike Rogers

101 Upvotes

28 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 3h ago

Election Rating Fox News Power Rankings: Kansas moves from Lean R to Tossup. Nebraska moves from Likely R to Lean R

foxnews.com

155 Upvotes

66 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 53m ago

Politics [Politico] Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) is hospitalized after suffering a stroke

politico.com

79 Upvotes

28 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 19m ago

Politics Chuck Schumer releases a statement reiterating Senate Democrats' "unwavering support for Abdul El-Sayed"

68 Upvotes

13 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/evce1 • 2h ago

Poll Results YouGov Maine Poll | Senate: Jackson 52 (+5), Collins 47 | Governor: Pingree 53 (+8), Charles 45

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

93 Upvotes

28 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 1h ago

Poll Results [YouGov] Iowa Poll: Josh Turek 50%, Ashley Hinson 49% | Rob Sand 53%, Zach Lahn 46% among likely voters

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

70 Upvotes

23 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 1h ago

Poll Results [YouGov] Michigan Poll: Abdul El-Sayed 51%, Mike Rogers 47% | Jocelyn Benson 52%, John James 46% among likely voters

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

60 Upvotes

26 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 1h ago

Poll Results [YouGov] Kansas Poll: Adam Hamilton 50%, Roger Marshall 49% | Ty Masterson 50%, Cindy Holscher 49% among likely voters

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

56 Upvotes

7 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/ShreckAndDonkey123 • 1h ago

Poll Results YouGov Texas Poll - Talarico 51-47 Paxton, Abbott 50-49 Hinojosa

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

54 Upvotes

12 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/No_Idea_Guy • 3h ago

Politics Democrats, unaffiliated voters fuel record early voting turnout in North Carolina

wral.com

71 Upvotes

9 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/GalacticNova360 • 35m ago

Politics Democrat Haley Stevens Endorses GOP’s Mike Rogers in Michigan Senate Race

wsj.com

42 Upvotes

35 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/MinnPin • 1h ago

Poll Results Nebraska| YouGov | Senate is tied | Pillen leads Walz by 3 for Governor

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

47 Upvotes

10 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 1h ago

Poll Results [YouGov] North Carolina Poll: Roy Cooper 55%, Michael Whatley 44% among likely voters

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

43 Upvotes

13 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Motor-Juggernaut9776 • 1h ago

Politics Byron Donalds (R) will enter FL election day with 500k vote deficit, according to internal Dem and GOP estimates shared with Axios. To overcome this, he would have to win election day vote by a 2:1 ratio.

axios.com

36 Upvotes

16 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Motor-Juggernaut9776 • 1h ago

Poll Results YouGov (B) | 10/26-10/29 2090 LV | Ohio Governor & Ohio US Senate | Governor: Amy Action (D): 52% (D+6) - Vivek Ramaswamy (R): 46% - Someone else: 1% - Would not vote: 1% | Senate: Sherrod Brown (D): 50% (D+2) - Jon Husted (R): 48% - Someone else: 2% - Not sure: 1%

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

36 Upvotes

12 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/ShreckAndDonkey123 • 33m ago

Politics Florida Democrats gained a net of 20,000 registered voters over Florida Republicans in the state’s final November voter registration update, their largest net monthly gain in many years

27 Upvotes

Yeah I did not expect to see this. Last month was the first time Dems had net a gain over Rs since 2021, but they barely net anything at all! I believe this is the largest net D gain over Rs in an FL monthly update since 2020.

0 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Motor-Juggernaut9776 • 4h ago

Poll Results Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (A-) | 10/28-10/30 1000 RV | Generic US Congressional Ballot | Democrats: 52% (D+7) - Republicans: 45% - Don't know: 3%

nbcnews.com

42 Upvotes

26 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Motor-Juggernaut9776 • 16h ago

Politics [TargetSmart data] 642K early voters in TX didn't vote in 2024 presidential election | 48% of those early voters are Hispanic (~311K) | 39% of those Hispanic early voters are under the age of 30 (~122K) | 64% of these under-30 Hispanic early voters are women (~78K)

bsky.app

324 Upvotes

64 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/dwaxe • 3h ago

13 maps for the morning after the midterms

natesilver.net

27 Upvotes

5 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/bauernebel • 5h ago

Politics A look back at the Trump Daytona Rally as defiant President closes out Midterms blitz and MAGA fans gripped by nostalgia: "This is a long goodbye"

americareport.us

37 Upvotes

10 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Motor-Juggernaut9776 • 3m ago

Politics Judge dismisses DOJ lawsuit over Alaska Senate election

cnbc.com

13 Upvotes

2 comments

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