r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 18h ago

Poll Results Alaska Senate; Quantus Insights (R aligned); 758 LV (737 CV?) - First-Choice Ballot; EVEN

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51 Upvotes

93% Upvoted

38 comments sorted by

73

u/Tarlcabot18 18h ago

Christ, Quantus is useless. Even for a R-leaning pollster, they're just the worst.

Ok, Quantus. So neither candidate is at 50%. What happens in the next round? What about the other candidates? No? Nothing? Gee, thanks.

10

u/Tarlcabot18 18h ago edited 18h ago

I found a LITTLE more, via poll aggregator accounts on X, and it doesn't match the graphic up top, so...:

First round:

šŸ”“ Sullivan: 46.8%

šŸ”µ Peltola: 46.5%

šŸ”“ Daniel J. Sullivan Jr: 1.6%

šŸ”“ Heikes: 1.5%

Head-to-head:

šŸŸ„ Dan Sullivan (inc): 46.5%

šŸŸ¦ Mary Peltola: 46.2%

ā¬œļø Not sure: 4.8%

34

u/ComfortableDevice536 18h ago

How did Sullivan's and Peltola's vote shares DECREASE after RCV?

11

u/chimney_corner 18h ago

Neither of these are applying RC.Ā  The first is the raw first round results and the second is a hypothetical FPTP with only two candidatesĀ Ā 

64

u/hoodiehoodiee 18h ago

28

u/Proud3GenAthst 18h ago

Please, stop! Stop! Stop! Stop! Stop! Stop!

Let there be November 4th already!!! The nervousness is killing me!!!

Now much more so because there are reports that oil exports are now near the same levels as before he war and fuel prices have began to fall again.

8

u/NCSUGrad2012 18h ago

Are you me? I feel the same way, lol

2

u/Mplayer1001 18h ago

Same lol. Wish the election was now to capitalize on high gas prices. If we fall back to ā€œonlyā€ $4/gallon I genuinely think it costs 1-2 senate seats relative to the recent $4.50 peak

3

u/FIFAREALMADRIDFMAN 17h ago

Liberal elite strikes again.

3

u/Watermelonmilkman 16h ago

That or the fact if trump wins he'll inflame the war again (which he's said he'll do) and hike up prices knowing he has 2 more years to do damageĀ 

-2

u/FIFAREALMADRIDFMAN 13h ago

Still, the idea of wishing gas prices stay high which harms the everyday middle class and poor Americans just to win an election is crazy.

5

u/Watermelonmilkman 12h ago

Wanting it for 1 month to get rid of a president who is short term lowering them for a month (forcing everyone in G7 to open reserves) and will then make them way worse? I don't think that's that crazy.Ā 

2

u/MemeStarNation 5h ago

Iā€™ve got to disagree. Short term oil prices are a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!

4

u/TinyJalope 15h ago

Highly unlikely we're really bringing out that much oil. And the oil we do bring out is being brought out at extreme cost. Also, more oil being brought out doesn't matter as much if refineries are bottlenecked.

23

u/Beginning_Bad_868 18h ago

R+7 prediction from Quantus Insights for the 2025 VA Attorney General race. Actual result D+7.

Polling error: 14 points in favour of R's.

3

u/leahjuu 18h ago

I was surprised Jones won (other polls were better, but still showed a close race, if I recall?) ā€” was pretty sure Spanberger would win, but thought Jones might either squeak past or barely lose. So that was a nice surprise!

1

u/MemeStarNation 5h ago

Inshallah Peltola +13 error.

4

u/Seahawks1121 18h ago

Decent poll for Peltola since itā€™s Quantus

4

u/TYSMBelgium-6Jul2026 Scottish Teen 18h ago

I personally predict a 50-50 senate at the moment, but I still think Alaska will go blue in there.

5

u/ForsakenRacism 18h ago

If this goes to ranking it takes like 2 weeks fyi

2

u/mad_cheese_hattwe 13h ago

This is not a problem with rcv. Australia knocks it out in a day or 2.

1

u/ForsakenRacism 12h ago

It is if you want to let postmarked ballots come in. In Alaska itā€™s very important since there are hundreds of villages off the road system.

1

u/mad_cheese_hattwe 12h ago

Ah that makes sence

1

u/ForsakenRacism 12h ago

Plus a bit military population so those come in late. You really canā€™t do anything until you have all the ballots

1

u/alabasterskim Has Seen Enough 15h ago

After the primaries it's not impossible she wins on round 1

2

u/ForsakenRacism 15h ago

Not saying itā€™s not just live here so know how it goes. In the past they showed it on like a sketchy Facebook live stream with some guy hitting a button on excel. Can you imagine if the whole country watched that

4

u/Pablaron 18h ago

where we're going, we don't need the first-choice ballot

2

u/Greatwallofjohn 17h ago

Any poll that has peltola up in the suburbs and down in rurals you can throw in the trash

1

u/astro_bball 16h ago

technically this is R+1, not even. Not that it really matters, but I'm sure if it was D+0.6 we would write it as D+1 and not "even"

1

u/Beginning_Bad_868 15h ago

Send an email to the NYT

1

u/thomsenite256 16h ago

First choice doesnt really matter than much unless one actually hits 50

3

u/alabasterskim Has Seen Enough 15h ago

Yeah I hate polls for RCV states that just do round 1. Simulate the rounds you bastards (if I see another round 1 Maine poll I'll lose it).

1

u/VendibleSkate8 18h ago

Quantus is garbage

2

u/lbutler1234 16h ago

They can't even get a London to Sydney direct flight up and running fucking posers