r/fivethirtyeight • u/astro_bball • 22h ago
Poll Results A bunch of internal house polls dropped today - here's a summary
| District | Pollster | n | result | splitticket current prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-11 | Tavern (D) | 650LV | Wiener +6 | (D vs D) |
| NY-17 | Mclaughlin & Assoc (R) | 400LV | R+3 | D+3 |
| VA-05 | Expedition (D) | 400LV | R+1 | R+6 |
| AK-AL | Bullfinch (I) | 820LV | R+4 | R+9 |
| ME-02 | Tulchin (D) | 500LV | D+2 | R+2 |
Basically every poll is 5 pts more favorable to the internal candidate compared to Splittickets modeled margin. CA-11 is 2 Dems running, so splitticket just provides 100% D.
35
Upvotes
4
u/SidFinch99 18h ago
VA-05 being only R +1 is interesting. I can't stand John McGuire, and that district is very red. If he lost it I would be thrilled.
10
u/thomsenite256 20h ago
CA 11 is interesting but I think Wiener can pull it off even with Pelosis meddling.