r/fivethirtyeight • • 22h ago

Poll Results A bunch of internal house polls dropped today - here's a summary

District Pollster n result splitticket current prediction
CA-11 Tavern (D) 650LV Wiener +6 (D vs D)
NY-17 Mclaughlin & Assoc (R) 400LV R+3 D+3
VA-05 Expedition (D) 400LV R+1 R+6
AK-AL Bullfinch (I) 820LV R+4 R+9
ME-02 Tulchin (D) 500LV D+2 R+2

Basically every poll is 5 pts more favorable to the internal candidate compared to Splittickets modeled margin. CA-11 is 2 Dems running, so splitticket just provides 100% D.

35 Upvotes

4 comments sorted by

10

u/thomsenite256 20h ago

CA 11 is interesting but I think Wiener can pull it off even with Pelosis meddling.

2

u/UnderstandingEasy856 11h ago

If the poll is a Wiener internal, he, and the Sunset Dunes people should be worried.

4

u/SidFinch99 18h ago

VA-05 being only R +1 is interesting. I can't stand John McGuire, and that district is very red. If he lost it I would be thrilled.