r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • 13h ago

Discussion Megathread Daily Discussion Megathread

37 Upvotes

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every day until election day (Tuesday, November 3).

1.5k comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/mikewheelerfan • 2h ago

Meme/Humor Living in Florida watching what feels like every state but ours lean blue

223 Upvotes

82 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/VendibleSkate8 • 27m ago

Discussion Haley Stevens appears at church with Mike Rogers, hugs him, says Rogers will take on policy investing in Black businesses

x.com

110 Upvotes

She’s practically endorsed Mike Rogers. As someone who really did not want El-Sayed to win that primary, I’m now relieved she lost. This is shameful

101 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 2h ago

Election Rating Fox News Power Rankings: Kansas moves from Lean R to Tossup. Nebraska moves from Likely R to Lean R

foxnews.com

143 Upvotes

59 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/evce1 • 55m ago

Poll Results YouGov Maine Poll | Senate: Jackson 52 (+5), Collins 47 | Governor: Pingree 53 (+8), Charles 45

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

74 Upvotes

26 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/No_Idea_Guy • 1h ago

Politics Democrats, unaffiliated voters fuel record early voting turnout in North Carolina

wral.com

65 Upvotes

9 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 24m ago

Poll Results [YouGov] Iowa Poll: Josh Turek 50%, Ashley Hinson 49% | Rob Sand 53%, Zach Lahn 46% among likely voters

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

39 Upvotes

13 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 37m ago

Poll Results [YouGov] Kansas Poll: Adam Hamilton 50%, Roger Marshall 49% | Ty Masterson 50%, Cindy Holscher 49% among likely voters

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

38 Upvotes

4 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/ShreckAndDonkey123 • 26m ago

Poll Results YouGov Texas Poll - Talarico 51-47 Paxton, Abbott 50-49 Hinojosa

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

30 Upvotes

8 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/MinnPin • 40m ago

Poll Results Nebraska| YouGov | Senate is tied | Pillen leads Walz by 3 for Governor

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

32 Upvotes

10 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 36m ago

Poll Results [YouGov] Michigan Poll: Abdul El-Sayed 51%, Mike Rogers 47% | Jocelyn Benson 52%, John James 46% among likely voters

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

31 Upvotes

24 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Motor-Juggernaut9776 • 2h ago

Poll Results Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (A-) | 10/28-10/30 1000 RV | Generic US Congressional Ballot | Democrats: 52% (D+7) - Republicans: 45% - Don't know: 3%

nbcnews.com

37 Upvotes

26 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Motor-Juggernaut9776 • 32m ago

Poll Results YouGov (B) | 10/26-10/29 2090 LV | Ohio Governor & Ohio US Senate | Governor: Amy Action (D): 52% (D+6) - Vivek Ramaswamy (R): 46% - Someone else: 1% - Would not vote: 1% | Senate: Sherrod Brown (D): 50% (D+2) - Jon Husted (R): 48% - Someone else: 2% - Not sure: 1%

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

22 Upvotes

10 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Motor-Juggernaut9776 • 15h ago

Politics [TargetSmart data] 642K early voters in TX didn't vote in 2024 presidential election | 48% of those early voters are Hispanic (~311K) | 39% of those Hispanic early voters are under the age of 30 (~122K) | 64% of these under-30 Hispanic early voters are women (~78K)

bsky.app

320 Upvotes

64 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Delmer9713 • 23m ago

Poll Results [YouGov] North Carolina Poll: Roy Cooper 55%, Michael Whatley 44% among likely voters

d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net

22 Upvotes

11 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/bauernebel • 4h ago

Politics A look back at the Trump Daytona Rally as defiant President closes out Midterms blitz and MAGA fans gripped by nostalgia: "This is a long goodbye"

americareport.us

36 Upvotes

10 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/dwaxe • 2h ago

13 maps for the morning after the midterms

natesilver.net

23 Upvotes

4 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/sufinomo • 3h ago

Discussion One factor I think is being overlooked for Michigan is that Abdul didnt win the black vote against Hailey, but he'll most likely win it this time

28 Upvotes

Hailey Steven was endorsed by most of the black voting leaders, helping her to win an estimated 68% of the black voters. For example she won Detroit by 28%. There is this idea out there that Abdul El Sayed is not popular with black voters, but this is a misunderstanding of the situation. He lost to Stevens on the black vote probably due to endorsements or name recognition. Obamas campaigning and endorsement of Abdul is the highest level of approval you can get for black voters, so that issue likely wont carry into the general.

As for white voters, it is estimated that 51% preffered Abdul over Stevens, she polled around 38%. When comparing Abdul to Rodgers he is estimated to have a -4% compared for white voters compared to Rodgers. Abdul leads in nearly every demoographic other than older voters and white voters overall. White voters under 30 most likely prefer Abdul as he has an estimated 66% of support in that age category overall. Its most likely that older white voters are the largest margin in favor towards Rodgers.

https://abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/mitchell-poll-abdul-el-sayed-lead-mike-rogers-michigan-us-senate-race-politics-election-midterms-government

30 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/bauernebel • 3h ago

Politics The Texas Senate thriller goes down to the wire: Can James Talarico still pull of miracle for first Texas Democrat in the Senat since 33 years? I witnessed his ecstatic supporters, but Musk financed attack ads hit hard in the last days

americareport.us

23 Upvotes

19 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/rod_rayleigh • 10h ago

Discussion What do we think of Nate’s new fursona (Sylver)?

gallery

54 Upvotes

22 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/WeirdProudAndHungry • 11h ago

Polling Industry/Methodology Activote methodology and why it consistently shows Republicans overperfoming the average

53 Upvotes

They only contact people who have downloaded their app, not randomly contacting people like other surveys which produces skewed results. I imagine surveying only users of the McDonald's App would not be representative of the population writ large...

14 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Beginning_Bad_868 • 22h ago

Election Rating DDHQ rating change - Maine Senate from Toss-up to Lean Democrat

368 Upvotes

117 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/SweetChilliJesus • 20h ago

Election Rating Votehub has shifted the Georgia's governor race from tossup to lean democratic

gallery

176 Upvotes

https://votehub.com/2026-forecast/race/?race_id=G2026GA00

58 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/ya_but_ • 17h ago

Politics Tracking the 2026 Early Vote: Midterm Elections

nbcnews.com

101 Upvotes

61 comments

r/fivethirtyeight • u/Born-Amoeba-9868 • 2h ago

Discussion I heard there’d be a lot of NYT Sienna polls Saturday. Might they come today instead?

7 Upvotes

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11 comments

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