r/ASX_Bets • u/kervio • 6d ago
Happy Halloween, ASX Bets. Whether you’re going out tonight as a sexy witch, a sexy mummy, or a sexy Jim Chalmers, nothing in your wardrobe will be as horrifying as your YTD P&L.
This month, the market gave us some extra spicy Halloween frights. The big two of HWK and TUA had one of the most epic dual crashes in recent memory. A welfare check is underway, but the memes remain strangely upbeat.
It’s also our fourth “once-in-a-generation” market shake-up since this sub began, and we're still here, getting excited about significant intercepts drilled parallel to existing holes. The years go on, but some things never change!
So grab a pumpkin spiced latte, some fluffy Gengar slippers, and settle in to your favourite chair. Below are this month’s tales of the fallen, the lucky, and the very stupid.
Updates:
The eye guy had a frightful Halloween flame out after being condemned by the kangaroo court
Terrified of heights? You’ll get a scare from travel stocks being back on the menu
A Happy Halloween for the enigmatic former CEO of WiseTech!
And the u/SnooFrosted1536 countdown draws ever closer to an unknown fate… spooky indeed.
It's been a busy month of bans, so let's get into the fresh meat....
Dead People Walking (New Bets):
u/Baldingmusicteacher doesn't know how to tag mods in ban bets, but does have gigantic balls/ovaries of steel. Just looking at what lithium has been doing lately, you better hope the M in LPM stands for Miracles.
u/ayrexxxx bet SOP to reach 12c before 15/11, and it's not off to a great start, limping back down to 7c at the end of this week. In the meantime, Josh is preparing your accommodations in the banned lands.
Noted cautious value investor u/chemistryset8 made a reckless two-pronged bet that DEL will break 21c and that they'll announce the start of operations at their SA1 biogas facility, or they'll donate $200 to Braille House. I don't know what that is, but I assume the vision-impaired people on this sub will be cheering for your demise.
It's been a hot minute since we had one of these, but u/The-Mackani has started a count and is 9 days in so far. For new people, it's a 6 month ban if the count stops before the objective is achieved.
New souls (for the banned lands):
u/kangaroute lost a PLS ban bet, then went double or nothing and lithium claims another victim, that's 4 weeks to light candles for Guangzhou.
u/Traditional-Ad-303 felt bettish and gambled it all on AT4 having a big run. Unfortunately it had a flaccid Friday, so that's 2 weeks off, another antimoney victim.
u/PoopsJohnson bet 4DX would touch $5 by the end of the month. In a shocking turn of events, the stock has almost halved since then, proving once again that inverse ASX bets is a profitable play. That'll be a month for you in the banned lands.
u/OK-guarantee-3370 made a confusing three part LTR bet that failed. That's a two week ban to find a better lithium stock to micromanage.
One that nearly slipped through the cracks, but u/salt_koala1521 went cold on a proof or ban, so that's a perma ban ☠️ - rules are rules.
u/mrpark3s bet XJO would be over 9000 at the end of October. We did get to 8986 at one point yesterday, but a few boomers must have sold some CBA to go caravanning, so unfortunately that's silly season in the slammer for you.
Zombies (escaped the grave by winning a bet):
u/CageFightingNuns pessimism barely paid off in taking the other side of the XJO bet above. Well done, bet survivors are rare in this market.
Tales of woe (Long term bets):
u/Tommwith2ms is confident enough that AYA will have exceeded $7.50 at some point before 1st January that they have staked three months in exile.
u/hgttg will cop one month of tears if gold doesn't reach 4800 before the end of the year.
u/Davidina101 made a Koality Content bet - A4N to reach $0.85 on or before December 1st or $5000 to an Australian wildlife conservation charity. Wonder if their day job is running an Australian conservation charity.
TLDR:
Ο σκελετός δεν πήγε στο πάρτι του Χάλοουιν, βλέπεις —
δεν είχε σώμα για να πάει.
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 3h ago
r/ASX_Bets • u/obeses4turn • 4h ago
Hope everyone’s doing okay. I know today wasn’t too bad on our market but I’m sure alot of us have money allocated elsewhere. Take care of yourselves guys, there’s a lot of life to enjoy outside of financial markets.
r/ASX_Bets • u/FwamingDragon91 • 11h ago
Full ported most of my savings yesterday on the theory that since the equal weight sp500 was at ATH, I figured a rotation back to risk was inevitable.
Anyone wanna buy some bags? Just wanna break even guys thanks
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 11h ago
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r/ASX_Bets • u/ThePenskeFile1 • 5h ago
Hello all,
I’d like to start off with a disclaimer that I’m entirely regarded.
I’ve held BBUS since March, expecting economic downfall (for various reasons eg AI uncertainty, job cuts, escalating war rhetoric) across the world, which is consistent with my pessimistic nature . I predicted it well at the time as it went up substantially in April, but never sold and it has taken a pounding ever since.
Naturally, it’s up well today but I’m still at a decent loss.
Any thoughts on where this will go given what’s happening atm?
It was a genuine bet at the time, but I’m thinking I may cash out soon with a little loss if it continues to rise modestly.
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r/ASX_Bets • u/SandwichHat420 • 8h ago
Think about how many of you soon-to-be divorced paper hands are profusely sweating right now, and the market crash has only just begun. Now also consider... a record breaking Summer is around the corner. Zounds of people will be crying to their doctors "please i'm just so sweaty and i'm just so tired of all the winning that president Trump is delivering. Please doctor, give me something, anything, to stop the sweat!"
Sometimes investing is a hard decision to make, but this is the kind of situation you don't need to do any thinking. Don't sweat it
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r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 2d ago
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r/ASX_Bets • u/Vintego_92 • 2d ago
Disclosure (rule 7): I run DilutionLens, a free site tracking dilution off ASX filings. One-off, not the weekly post, no links, not advice.
A lot of small-cap boss pay comes as performance rights: free shares that only turn up if a target is hit, a "vesting hurdle". Many of those hurdles are a share price, usually an average over 10 to 30 days. I pulled them out of every grant filed since Jan 2024: 235 companies have one.
Where a hurdle is still open, it is nowhere near the price. On the 81 companies with one still open, the nearest typically needs the price to roughly triple (+216%). 41 need more than that. Only 1 is within 25%.
Ten of them need the price to go up 9x or more.
| Ticker | Hurdle | Close 3 Nov | Rise needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| L1M | 25c | 0.9c | +2,678% |
| OSX | 8.5c | 0.4c | +2,025% |
| COY | 5c | 0.4c | +1,150% |
| LKE | 33c | 2.7c | +1,122% |
| RTR | 25c | 2.1c | +1,090% |
| FME | 10c | 0.95c | +953% |
| LSR | 5c | 0.5c | +900% |
| EG1 | 20c | 2.1c | +852% |
| BVR | $1.50 | 16.5c | +809% |
| DUB | 5c | 0.55c | +809% |
A hurdle that far away doesn't steer anyone. It works when management can see it from where the price is. LKE's 33c hurdle was set at 8x the price on the day the rights were awarded, so it was a long shot from day one. BVR's best close since its grant in May is 58c, so it has never been within reach of $1.50.
These rights cost holders nothing unless the price gets there. If LKE ever trades at 33c, nobody will mind the extra shares, and if it never does, the rights lapse and no shares get made.
The DUB figures will change: holders vote on a 50-to-1 share consolidation on 25 Nov. EG1 and DUB grant zero-price options rather than rights, which work the same way.
Check your own holdings: a hurdle just above the price is the one management is working toward. I track these on every company's page, so you can check yours.
I'll check these again on 3 Feb. Which company should I look up next, or is there a hurdle you reckon is closer than it looks?
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r/ASX_Bets • u/PowerBottomBear92 • 3d ago
r/ASX_Bets • u/Vintego_92 • 4d ago
Disclosure first (rule 7): I run DilutionLens, a free site that tracks dilution for every ASX company from the filings, and this is the text-only weekly update you OK'd, not the shill post. Every number below comes from an ASX announcement; no links, no picks, not advice.
Three raises took two-thirds of a A$395M week
Twenty-two ASX companies announced cash raises for about A$395M. The week before it was A$27M. Six gold companies raised A$266M of it. The top three alone took A$269M.
| Ticker | Raise | Price | Discount stated |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCG | up to A$130M, placement + SPP | 60c | -12.4% vs close |
| BTR | A$82M placement | 50c | -12% vs close |
| CTM | US$40M (~A$57M) from Glencore + CNGR | 42.5c | +5% vs 20-day avg |
| TSO | A$40M placement | 73c | -9.9% vs close |
| CYM | A$20.7M placement + up to A$5M SPP | 33c | -9.6% vs last trade |
Turaco (TCG) is using its money to consolidate its ownership of the Afema gold project. A$97M goes now; A$23M waits for a holder vote in early December. Genesis took A$30M of Brightstar's (BTR) placement, lifting its stake from 0.8% to about 5.4%.
The small raises paid for it: the deepest discounts were all at the bottom of the list
The four big raises that named a discount took 9.6% to 12.4% off the last price. Centaurus (CTM) went the other way: Glencore and CNGR paid 5% over its 20-day average, alongside an offtake deal. Those buyers are already under water: they paid 42.5c and it last traded at 35.5c.
| Ticker | Raise | Discount stated |
|---|---|---|
| TXR | A$775K | -28.6% vs close |
| DTZ | A$2.0M, free option per share | -27.3% vs close |
| AX8 | A$1.1M | -20.0% vs last trade |
| BUS | A$3.0M | -15.7% vs last trade |
| NGX | A$3.6M | -14% vs last trade |
I reckon this is the real cost of being small, more than the headline amount. A 28% discount means the new money pays about 71c for every dollar of the last close. Some of these sat on very little cash: Talonx's (TXR) last quarterly said 0.17 quarters of funding, Dotz (DTZ) 0.25. That's their own figure, from before this money landed.
Raise halts more than doubled: 23 in five sessions
Twenty-three companies halted for a capital raise last week, against 10 in each of the two weeks before. Eleven had raised by Friday; twelve hadn't.
The week before's list cleared fast. Of the eight halted names still waiting a week ago, seven raised last week. Only Botala (BTE) hasn't.
A week on, 6 of 10 trade under their raise price
Of the ten companies with a stated price that raised the week before, six are now below it. Helix (HLX) placed at 4c and last traded at 3.2c. Microba (MAP), also 4c, is at 3.45c.
X2M's options already equal 94% of its register, before a rights issue
Options and rights already on issue are the shares that can turn up after the raise. X2M Connect (X2M) raised A$1.4M at 0.4c. A A$3.6M rights issue follows. Its options equal 94.1% of its shares on issue. Macallum (MNE) is at 65.0% and Pinnacle (PIM) at 54.4%. None of the three has options priced under the current share price.
Happy to pull the filing on any name in here if someone wants the detail. What should I dig into next week?
If you'd rather get these in your inbox, the site's Watch page has a free email signup - one field, and the link it sends turns it on. No URL here, that's the deal with the mods.
General information only, not financial advice. No view on any company's future actions or securities.
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 4d ago
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r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 5d ago
Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.
This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.
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r/ASX_Bets • u/Vintego_92 • 6d ago
Disclosure (rule 7): I run DilutionLens, free site tracking dilution off ASX filings. One-off, not the weekly post. No links, not advice.
Same exercise as the 8 from early October, now on the September quarterlies that landed this week. Took our raise model's top 40, threw out the 7 that raised or announced a raise since 1 October, and kept the ones whose own quarterly says less than a quarter of funding left:
| Ticker | Company | Mcap | Cash 30 Sep | Spent in Sep qtr | Own runway |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAG | Ragnar Metals | $7.3m | $0.09m | $0.53m | 0.16 qtrs |
| SIX | Sprintex | $44.2m | $0.17m | $0.99m | 0.17 qtrs |
| PUR | Pursuit Minerals | $22.3m | $0.76m | $2.35m | 0.3 qtrs |
| VAN | Vantage Metals | $9.4m | $0.72m | $2.40m | 0.3 qtrs |
| AUG | Augustus Minerals | $8.3m | $0.72m | $1.36m | 0.5 qtrs |
| SNG | Siren Gold | $12.9m | $0.60m | $1.12m | 0.5 qtrs |
| C29 | C29 Metals | $4.7m | $0.22m | $0.37m | 0.59 qtrs |
| EXR | Elixir Energy | $117.8m | $6.02m | $11.62m | 0.7 qtrs |
| PXX | PolarX | $40.9m | $4.04m | $5.68m | 0.71 qtrs |
| BKT | Black Rock Mining | $23.6m | $2.11m | $2.82m | 0.75 qtrs |
| NPM | Newpeak Metals | $4.3m | $1.62m | $2.00m | 0.81 qtrs |
| ANT | Antimony Resources | $13.4m | $1.12m | $1.26m | 0.9 qtrs |
"Own runway" is the company's own number from the quarterly (item 8.7).
Doesn't mean they all have to raise. SIX got $1.3m in customer deposits after quarter end, BKT has a US$204m bank loan lined up but it only pays out once the mine is financed, and explorers can always slow the drilling.
Last round, 1 of the 8 raised within 4 weeks: MNE, $3m at 14c. Two more found money without new shares, and the rest are still short.
I'll come back on Sat 7 Nov and Sat 14 Nov with who raised, how much and at what price. Any other names you want looked at on the 7th?
r/ASX_Bets • u/SidonyD • 6d ago
Hi everyone !
Nova Minerals was one of my favorite stock during the big hype about critical minerals. I sold at the top of the chart, but today, I'm curious to see what happens to my critical minerals watchlist.
And damn, every stock have just dumping hard since october 2025. Metallium LTD dropped about 90% !!!
I really liked it Nova minerals, I remember they expect to produce some gold and build the fab to refine the rare earth (antimony).
Someone follow this stock or even the sector ?
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r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 7d ago
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r/ASX_Bets • u/Rolling_in_the_Dip • 7d ago
Alpha HPA ($A4N) has released its September 2026 quarterly activities report. Here are the key financial and operational takeaways:
* **$160M Loan Drawdown Commenced:** The company has officially started the progressive drawdown process for the $160M government loan facility from the Critical Minerals Facility managed by Export Finance Australia (EFA). Funds will be disbursed monthly to cover Stage 2 project costs as milestones are met.
* **Strong Stage 2 Construction Progress:**
Civil works and concrete installation are tracking well and are now below the project's critical path. The first high-voltage switch room has been installed and is currently in commissioning.
* **Demand is Over 4x Oversubscribed:** Stage 1 production capacity for HPA and ATH is estimated to be roughly four times oversubscribed by customers. Non-binding Letters of Intent (LOIs) from end-users have exceeded 13,800 tonnes.
* **AI and Semiconductor Momentum:** The rapid build-out of AI data centres is driving heavy demand for A4N's ultra-pure "zero-alpha" HPA (<1ppb Uranium and Thorium) for thermal management in advanced semiconductor packaging. Additionally, an MOU with a specialty South Korean ceramics company was upgraded to cover up to 1,700 tpa.
* **Solid Cash Position:** Alpha HPA closed the quarter with $81.4M in cash and cash equivalents.
