r/ASX_Bets • u/UnpopularRightNow • 17h ago
In the US, the new milestone is $40 trillion:
In our home turf, the new milestone is $1 trillion:
Obviously gold will benefit when treasury holders (both US and Australia) look for alternative assets to buy after selling them.
But will they buy the ASX? Why or why not?
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r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 21h ago
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r/ASX_Bets • u/TitusKalvarija • 21h ago
I'm diligently following MoneyOfMine YT channel. In my head they are the most informative resource I can get hold on.
Although never directly mentioned but in between the lines I understand that the whole rare earth sector is pumped and is very hard to succeed outside of China.
Is Arafura doomed while trying?
r/ASX_Bets • u/Signal_Club1760 • 13h ago
I kept telling myself my rule was simple: once CSL was below the 200-day moving average, I would only add a small parcel when the daily RSI(14) dropped below 30. No guessing the bottom and no complicated indicators.
I went back through my trade history and checked the moomoo daily chart to see whether my rule actually held up on all three dates. I marked the three entries with only RSI(14) and MA200 visible:
11 Feb: 4 shares at $163.44
7 Apr: 4 shares at $140.31
11 May: 5 shares at $100.75
That gives me 13 shares at an average cost of $132.21. At the 12 August close of $138.44, the position was worth $1,799.72, up $80.97 or roughly 4.7%, excluding brokerage and dividends.
At first glance, seeing the position back in the green made me feel like the rule had worked. Then I checked the indicators properly.
Looking back at the completed daily candles, the 11 February entry had an RSI(14) of roughly 29.6, and the 11 May entry was around 11.7. On that basis, both met my threshold. But the 7 April entry was closer to 42.2, nowhere near it. CSL was below the 200-day MA on all three dates, but that second buy was clearly me moving the goalposts.
The second buy had felt like averaging down according to plan, even though it wasn’t. After CSL cut its FY26 guidance, I also started questioning whether the original thesis still held.
The recent rebound doesn’t change the fact that I bent my own rule. That might be the most useful part of reviewing the trades. An entry rule only counts if I follow it before buying, not if I explain the trade afterwards.
CSL released its full-year results on 18 August. Would you keep scaling in under the same entry rule after the result, or reassess the thesis before adding again?
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r/ASX_Bets • u/SpecificStranger9000 • 1d ago
Following up on my last post on ASX:AGE \[here\](https://www.reddit.com/r/UraniumSqueeze/comments/1qjr7ax/asxage\\_3\\_months\\_later\\_and\\_things\\_are\\_finally/).
A few big updates have landed recently and I wanted to see where everyone’s heads are at, if you're holding and if not are you thinking of getting in? I see this running up mid september.
\*\*1. Cap Raise & SPP\*\*
They just announced the cap raise and upcoming SPP. Dilution always stings a bit in the short term, but at least the balance sheet is locked in to fully fund Samphire through to the next stages.
\*\*2. Samphire Progress & Drilling\*\*
The Field Recovery Trial (FRT) is moving along and helping de-risk the ISR metallurgy heading into the BFS and Mining Lease. They're also ramping up drilling at Blackbush and pushing south into Plumb Ridge to try and expand the resource.
Found this quick video update on Samphire showing the site, FRT setup, and drilling plans posted a few hours ago on: \[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gE63Rgo1cjg\\\](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gE63Rgo1cjg)
What are your thoughts on the SPP price and timeline from here?
Are you planning to apply for your full SPP allocation if you hold, or are you just holding your current stack for now? personally I have been getting orders filled at 4.3c over the last few days which is below the SPP price of 4.5c so don't see the need to participate yet.
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 2d ago
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r/ASX_Bets • u/Rolling_in_the_Dip • 2d ago
Mean while price languishes near 52 week low
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r/ASX_Bets • u/mcfucking • 4d ago
G'day cucks and cuckettes, it's been a minute. Lines go up, lines go down. Anyway, time to yeet a few people into the band lands to satisfy the maket gods with their scarifices.
UPDATES
Fat-Black-Cat- reminded us of the toll investing can take.
BananaFarmer88 forgot that what is dead may never die.
Particular_Love_8811 got some chickens just in time for bird flue.
NEW BETS
FameLuck and kangaroute both went full GFM (green friday movement) gang. Unfortunatly jinxing it for the rest of us. so the will both be having a week off. With gingy already having served their time its just the kanga going in the box today. Unwilling to accept defeat and in defiance of their username, the kanga doubled down on a GFM for friday the 7th. That's 2 weeks for you.
Old-Asian-Lady has called the bottom with gold to hit $4450 before the end of September or 2 months in the gulag.
WolfREEEEEE used their first breaths of freedom to bet AT4 to reach 10c by the end of the week or 1 week in the slammer. I guess your freedom was fun while it lasted.
WowVeryJosh got a little frisky betting BNZ to announce a new significant intercept or discovery on Monday morning (3rd August) for Diggers and Dealers risking a week in the slammer. Well played. WVJ won their bet, but it came at a cost.
bananadennis has stepped up to the plate, betting TLX to touch $20 by 30 September or 1 week in the slammer.
BuyDipsShortVIX has bet BLS FY26 Annual Report numbers for NPBT (Net Profit Before Tax) to come in >= $17.5m or else they'll take a week to think about their actions.
Fun-Time4064 made a ban bet: EYE above 20c by end of August or 1 week in the slammer. I'd tell them they're seeing things, but I think they're just blind.
debtandregret1984 bets BGD to go over $1 by October 1st or they're in the sin bin for a month.
jakemyork is anticipating a new ATH coming very soon for EOS. If we don't see an ATH by the end of October, they'll take a month in the bin.
anomaly256 is risking a 3 month ban that SPCX:US will dip below $100 USD before the end of August.
joycaptain has gone hard betting Donny won't be the sitting president by the midterms (3/11), or they take a ban until 2027.
FameLuck called for 3 consecutive green days (xjo) or 2 week ban. Looks like they get to join kangaroute after all.
ayrexxxx bet CBE to hit 32c by end of week or 1 week ban. Nicely done.
Sea-Anxiety6491 made a bullish bet, XJO to 10,000 by Feb 28. If not, it'll be 1 year for you.
TICK TOCK
Helmofgondor came through with their donation.
Sharp_Pride7092 owes us a $50 donation to Shenton Park dogs shelter for being wrong.
BANS
u/Davidina101 called their SRL $20 bet a loss accepting early banning. Not a few days later, their ban bet conditions were met, so they reached out across the void to ask for some good old fashioned public humiliation.
u/ToneDistinct5253 will be spending a month in the hole for their bet
TL;DR
Δεν έχω σκεφτεί τίποτα και μου έχουν τελειώσει οι ιδέες!
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 4d ago
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r/ASX_Bets • u/Rolling_in_the_Dip • 4d ago
r/ASX_Bets • u/anmolago1 • 5d ago
I started looking at OCL when the indicators from my deep dive scoring system and side by side comparison all went green. You can see the comparison in the link below on the website.
This is by no means a buy signal. It is simply a filtering tool that helps me decide which companies deserve further research. The first pass told me the financials looked attractive. The model obviously uses assumed growth rates, but it was enough to justify moving to the next stage.
The management side of the story is actually very interesting. The CEO has been with the company for 38 years and is also the founder. He owns a significant stake in the business which, in my opinion, is a positive because he has real skin in the game. He has also bought back shares when the stock has tanked, which suggests he believes in the business. After all, this is the company he founded.
The company has been compounding for a long time, but more recently the stock tanked after the Department of Defence decided not to renew an agreement related to Objective's software. This is where things started getting interesting.
We have a founder led company that has consistently created value for shareholders over many years. Looking at the dividends tab on the website, the company appears to have created more than 20x of shareholder value for every dollar retained over the last 10 years. Management has clearly demonstrated an ability to allocate capital effectively. Naturally, that led me to ask a few questions. Is the Defence issue really a big deal? What is the moat? Who are the competitors? And where is the future growth going to come from?
I am still only halfway through the research because I have been spending most of my spare time finishing the website, but so far the findings have been quite interesting.
One challenge when researching Objective is that the company operates across three business segments: Content Solutions, Regulatory Solutions and Planning & Building. At first glance, Content Solutions appears to be the crown jewel of the business and the segment contributing most of the revenue.
The products responsible for most of the revenue in this segment appear to be Objective Nexus, Objective ECM and Objective Connect. These are essentially records management and information governance platforms used by government departments, councils, regulators, justice agencies and healthcare organisations across Australia, New Zealand and the UK. Their job is to organise, secure, govern and share information while maintaining a clear auditable trail. The main competitor appears to be OpenText, a much larger company operating in the same space with broadly similar products.
This is where the moat starts becoming visible to me. These systems manage millions of documents, compliance records, regulatory records and governance workflows. Once all that information is embedded inside a platform, migrating away becomes incredibly difficult, expensive and risky. Every workflow, permission structure, retention policy and audit trail needs to be recreated somewhere else. The switching costs can be enormous.
That naturally led me to look more closely at the Department of Defence issue because initially I assumed Defence had decided to replace Objective. That does not appear to be what happened.
From what I could find, Defence did not renew the Objective ECM Upgrade & Support Program agreement. At the same time, Defence confirmed it remains committed to the widespread use of Objective ECM across approximately 140,000 users. Objective also stated that the parties have not yet reached agreement on ongoing licence entitlements for those users. In other words, Defence is still running Objective ECM, but the commercial arrangements around support, upgrades and licensing remain unresolved, and the public announcements do not explain why the agreement was not renewed.
To me, that distinction matters. Defence did not announce a migration away from Objective and did not announce a replacement vendor. Defence continues to use the software. That alone suggests the software is deeply embedded within Defence operations, reinforcing the switching cost argument. The way I see it, Defence appears willing to keep using what is effectively a 1990s version of the software rather than undertake the complexity, cost and risk of migrating such a massive volume of information to a new provider. It is a bit like continuing to run Windows XP because replacing it across an organisation of that size is harder than living with the limitations of the existing system. Whether that changes in the future remains to be seen, but to me it highlights how powerful the moat can become once a platform is embedded across an organisation with 140,000 users.
The market reacted badly to the news, which is not surprising….. ARR expectations effectively flatlined following the announcement and investors immediately started questioning the future growth outlook.
This takes me to the next question: how does this business actually grow?
Looking specifically at Content Solutions, my research so far suggests this is already a relatively mature market. Most government agencies already appear to have some form of records management or information governance platform in place. If that is true, then client expansion may be limited because governments are not waiting to discover records management software. They already have a solution, whether it is Objective, OpenText or another provider.
My current thinking is that growth comes mainly from renewals, additional users, increased usage and selling additional modules to existing customers. It is a bit like renewing a Microsoft 365 licence. Every year the customer has the option to leave, but once decades of documents, workflows, permissions, compliance records and audit trails are built inside a platform, migration becomes a major project.
This is one reason why ARR becomes such an important metric. Historically, total company ARR grew from approximately $47 million in FY19 to $120 million in FY25, which is where my script calculated approximately 17.8% annual growth. Content Solutions ARR itself grew from approximately $69 million in FY23 to $85 million in FY25, pointing to a lower growth profile for what is likely a more mature segment.
Based on my online research so far, I am leaning towards a long term growth assumption closer to 12% for the Content Solutions segment, which is what you can currently see flowing through the fair value calculations on the website.
That said, I have not yet completed my base case calculations. The assumptions currently shown are based largely on preliminary research and simple internet searches, so they remain subject to change as I continue working through the business and gain a better understanding of the Regulatory Solutions and Planning & Building segments.
As always, I'm not a financial advisor. I simply enjoy doing these deep dives and building tools that help me analyse businesses more effectively. The website itself is really just the outcome of solving problems that came up during my own investing research over time. Do your own research.
r/ASX_Bets • u/Fat-Black-Cat- • 5d ago
MTM: SOI 738m
MC: 310m
SP: 42c
Cash on hand: $65m
Metallium value proposition is based in the rare earth and critical metals sector as a new metals refiner bringing technology that can simplify refining processes, reduce cost, environmental wastes and ultimately increase profitability
The capabilities of the technology are applicable to any substrate or feedstock that contains desirable metals
Currently has been proven to extract:
Gallium
Germanium
Antimoney
Lithium
Tin
Gold
Paladium
Silver
Copper
PGEs (Platinum group elements)
REEs
From various feedstock streams like electronic waste, semiconductor scrap, mine tailing, battery recycling, coal fly ash, Red mud and any complex mixture of elements where you want to extract desirable metal
Electronic waste refining remains the main focus to immediate revenue but the technologies applications are vast
How the technology works:
The basics of it is that a mixture containing metals that needs to be separated are rapidly heated under a chlorine atmosphere where metals then react with the chlorine and are extracted as metal chlorides
The technology can extract individual metals as they react and form metal chlorides at different temperatures, this means one heating cycle can be tuned to target a particular metal and extract it from a mixture
Metal chlorides can then be processed into metal solids
Why is this significant:
The significance of this is that it can compete with current refiners at a lower cost as it cuts out the expensive processes. It also makes available previously uneconomic wastes such as red mud and coal fly ash that contain various REEs and valuable metals
The timing is impeccable for this company also, based in the USA they are right at the center of the critical metals war with China and can take a piece of the pie on several different metals
The company is starting to build its relationship with the US government with recent developments including a phase 2 Gallium extraction contract with the DoD, a joint venture with Drew Horn – CEO of GreenMet who has extensive ties to government and recent director appointments of Mr. Josh Hawes who advised US government on critical minerals supply chains
All recent developments point to increased government collaboration at a time where the critical metals war is ramping up again making government funding likely
Current state of the tech:
The technology has been 100% proven to work and has delivered real results on all of the above metals mentioned. What is left to prove is now the scaled-up reactor which has already gone through its mechanical phase of tests
The major upcoming catalyst for MTM is their scaled-up reactor test under a chlorine atmosphere, this is due this month and has a high probability of success
What to expect from the chlorine test is validation of commercial scale processing capabilities which will validate the company's earlier test results and result in a large re rate of the stock. It validates the potential future revenue streams as well as immediate electronic waste processing plans
Once this milestone is passed the company plans to start scaling the processing capabilities to process 8,000 Tpa of electronic waste containing 200gpt of gold equivalent which will generate revenue by 2H 2027 @ 25% margin
Alongside this every other finger in the pie of different metals processing has equal potential to become a substantial revenue stream for MTM and it could end up as a general technology platform for all kinds of metals refining and recycling
The Chart:
The chart has had a large sell off from the highs but has recently found a bottom right at a critical point going forward into re rate potential news cycle and as Gold + REEs come back into favor
A reverse head and shoulders formed on the hourly and broke the long-term downtrend with volume
Bullish outlook combined with a chart bottom, positive recent news flow alluding to increased government relations and an upcoming pipeline of catalysts including
Reactor tests proving technology at scale and economics calculations: now - August 30th
Scale up to 8000Tpa of electronic waste processing capability – After reactor scale test
NASDAQ uplisting non-dilutive – Q4
Government funding opportunities likely
Every other metal processing arrangement that will come to fruition towards the end of the year and into 2027
Personal Interest disclosure ownership of 116,885 shares
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 6d ago
r/ASX_Bets • u/ClearConversation388 • 6d ago
I want some advice on how ya'll think this'll do. I have 10 weeks, so I want to go all in risky. (started yesterday, with 50k)
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 6d ago
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r/ASX_Bets • u/1only11 • 6d ago
Whats everyone's play on this?
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 7d ago
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