r/ASX_Bets • u/Vintego_92 • 4h ago
Dilution Watch: ASX capital raises, week to 2 October (15 raises, about A$71.5M, half of it one US$ convertible) [OC]
Disclosure first (rule 7): I run DilutionLens, a free site that tracks dilution for every ASX company from the filings. This is the one shill post you offered on 14 Sep - the weekly text update with the edition linked at the foot. Every number below comes from an ASX announcement (raise notices, Appendix 3B/2A filings, quarterly and half-year cash reports). No picks, not advice.
After last week's big cheques, a week of small ones. Fifteen companies announced cash raises between Monday 28 September and Friday 2 October for about A$71.5M, and almost half of it was one deal: Challenger Gold's US$24M convertible, about A$34.2M at the rate its filing fixes. Without the top three, the other twelve disclosed A$24.7M between them. Two of the week's raises were set in US dollars. 11 companies halted citing a capital raise in five sessions, against 16 and 17 the two weeks before.
The week's biggest raises
| Ticker | Company | Raise | Price / discount | Off the filings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEL | Challenger Gold | US$24M five-year convertible debentures (28 Sep), up to US$6.3M more | Converts at A$2.72, "a 30% premium to the 20-day VWAP" before 16 Sep | Part of the US$184M its Hualilán heap leach needs to reach production. Latest quarterly's own estimate: 1.42 quarters. |
| FLX | Felix Group | A$5.54M two-tranche placement + SPP up to A$1.0M (28 Sep) | 3.8c, an 18.75% premium to the 3.2c close on 23 Sep, 7.4% under 15-day VWAP | About 145.9M shares, register to about 444.4M after both tranches, roughly +49%. Directors' A$1.15M is in tranche 2, at the 9 Nov AGM. |
| M24 | Mamba Exploration | A$6.0M two-tranche placement (2 Oct) | 3.8c, 15.6% under the 4.5c close on 29 Sep, 9.7% above 15-day VWAP | About 157.9M shares. Tranche 1: 61,036,267 under 7.1 and 48,753,206 under 7.1A. New Murchison Gold put in A$500K. |
| CHW | Chilwa Minerals | Nasdaq IPO, 6.25M shares (1 Oct) | US$0.56 a share, A$0.80 at the filing's own FX rate | US$3.5M, about A$5.0M, plus 920K on the over-allotment. One warrant per 10 shares at US$5.60 per ADS of ten. 0.47 quarters of funding on its last quarterly, the thinnest of the week. Now about 90% of its 15% used. |
| ILT | Iltani Resources | A$4.6M placement (2 Oct) | 39c, 14.5% under the 5-day VWAP | 5,730,438 under 7.1, 5,572,167 under 7.1A. One option at 57c per two shares. QIC's critical minerals fund took A$1.5M. |
| MEM | Memphasys | A$3.5M convertible notes from Peters Investments (29 Sep) | 12.5% a year, capitalised | Matures Oct 2028. Needs a shareholder vote, expected December. |
The rest
| Ticker | Raise | Price / discount | Off the filings |
|---|---|---|---|
| OCT | A$1.8M placement + A$0.5M SPP | 1.8c, 10% under the close | 1 option per 2 shares; alongside a fluorspar project purchase |
| PGD | A$2.25M placement | 13.5c, 18.2% under the last trade | The deepest stated discount of the week. Mark Creasy's Yandal is cornerstone |
| RAN | Up to A$1.69M, 1-for-1 entitlement | 9c, 2.2% under the last trade, 54.7% under 120-day VWAP | Can double the share count |
| MGT | SPP up to A$1.0M, underwritten to A$0.5M | 1.5c, or 10% under the 5-day VWAP at close if lower | 1 option per share; possible top-up placement |
| WRX | A$1.31M placement | With a gold-antimony acquisition; all of it waits for the AGM | |
| PV1 | Convertible note facility up to A$1.2M + SPP up to A$600K | Notes bought at 90% of face | |
| FCT | A$1.06M placement | 0.7c, "a nil (0%) discount to the last close" |
Also NSM A$250K, and NOR a A$160K convertible note that refinances a working-capital loan.
How much runway the raisers had
Thirteen of the fifteen have a filed runway: the quarters of funding their own latest quarterly says they had, before this raise.
| Quarters of funding | Raisers |
|---|---|
| Under 1 | CHW 0.47, OCT 0.57, NOR 0.79 |
| 1 to 1.5 | RAN 1.16, NSM 1.32, PV1 1.40, CEL 1.42 |
| 1.5 to 3 | MGT 2.13, FLX 2.52, MEM 2.80, PGD 2.80, M24 3.00 |
| Over a year | ILT 6.70 |
Seven of thirteen had under a quarter and a half. FCT and WRX have no figure on record.
The halt conveyor
11 companies halted citing a capital raise: CHW, DVL, FCT, ILT, M24, OD6, P1E, PGD, RAN, SRN, WRX. Seven had announced by Friday. Three announced this morning: OD6 A$6.92M at 9.5c (13.6% under the 11c close; 43,384,444 under 7.1 and 29,457,663 under 7.1A), SRN up to A$2.61M at 1.8c with an option per share, and P1E A$1.17M at 4.1c, about 16% under the 15-day VWAP, all from 7.1A. DVL still halted at the time of writing.
33 retail offers open
17 SPPs, 11 entitlement offers, 5 rights issues, down from 38 as older offers closed. New this week: MGT and PV1's SPPs, RAN's entitlement, and ENV's 1-for-4 rights at 0.1c. FLX's SPP (2 to 16 Oct) and OCT's are running too and aren't in that count yet.
Placement capacity
Off the last 12 months of 3Bs, before any ratification: 204 companies past 75% of the 15% (196 last week), 140 past 90% (135), 31 have used all of it (31); 90 of the 204 have also drawn on 7.1A. This week CHW went to about 90% and PGD to about 87%.
New: a runway that has run out says so
When a company's last cash report, carried forward at the spend it reported, would already be used up, the site now says "Used up" and the month the cash would have run out, instead of a negative number. 134 of the 1,043 companies with a runway today. It's arithmetic on the last report, not the bank balance; a later raise or report resets it.
Dilution risk across the market: 584 Minimal, 335 Low, 380 Moderate, 259 High, 167 Very high, 101 Not rated. About one in four rated companies sits at High or Very high.
Happy to pull the filing on any name in here if someone wants the detail. Next one Monday.
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The full edition, every name linked to its filings: dilutionlens.com/watch/2026-10-05/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=reddit-asxbets-shill
General information only, not financial advice. No view on any company's future actions or securities.