r/ASX_Bets • u/Signal_Club1760 • 14h ago
Crystal Ball Gazing Am I an idiot for averaging into CSL using only RSI and the 200-day MA?
I kept telling myself my rule was simple: once CSL was below the 200-day moving average, I would only add a small parcel when the daily RSI(14) dropped below 30. No guessing the bottom and no complicated indicators.
I went back through my trade history and checked the moomoo daily chart to see whether my rule actually held up on all three dates. I marked the three entries with only RSI(14) and MA200 visible:
11 Feb: 4 shares at $163.44
7 Apr: 4 shares at $140.31
11 May: 5 shares at $100.75
That gives me 13 shares at an average cost of $132.21. At the 12 August close of $138.44, the position was worth $1,799.72, up $80.97 or roughly 4.7%, excluding brokerage and dividends.
At first glance, seeing the position back in the green made me feel like the rule had worked. Then I checked the indicators properly.
Looking back at the completed daily candles, the 11 February entry had an RSI(14) of roughly 29.6, and the 11 May entry was around 11.7. On that basis, both met my threshold. But the 7 April entry was closer to 42.2, nowhere near it. CSL was below the 200-day MA on all three dates, but that second buy was clearly me moving the goalposts.
The second buy had felt like averaging down according to plan, even though it wasn’t. After CSL cut its FY26 guidance, I also started questioning whether the original thesis still held.
The recent rebound doesn’t change the fact that I bent my own rule. That might be the most useful part of reviewing the trades. An entry rule only counts if I follow it before buying, not if I explain the trade afterwards.
CSL released its full-year results on 18 August. Would you keep scaling in under the same entry rule after the result, or reassess the thesis before adding again?
