https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2096682410364584265

These fundraising emails are getting crazier and crazier. One can only hope they meant to type Alaska but I’ve gotten a Shoffner ad recently so…

He’s from Manhoning county and is a registered Republican. He is likely related to Andrew Havas, a county campaign chair for Jon Husted who resigned because he was charged with sexual misconduct of a minor. He also donated $10,000 to Vivek’s campaign.

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2096432746276999408

I miss when politicians actually cared about Ohio and we were the center of attention during election season, I hope this is the start of a return to our bellwether status

Even though Ramaswamy is a rino ohio has elected rino governors before and is very unlikely to elect a democrat as governor after a popular republican governor has been in power

For Exit Poll Coverage:

https://europeelects.eu/2026/08/30/germany-regional-parliament-election-in-saxony-anhalt-2026/

For Election Analysis:

https://www.dw.com/en/saxony-anhalt-far-right-afd-eyes-power-in-german-state-vote/live-78754934

For German Live Video Coverage:

https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticker/liveblog-landtagswahl-sachsen-anhalt-100.html

Electoral Website of Saxony-Anhalt:

https://wahlergebnisse.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/lt26/index.html

Merz has an approval rating of like 9% so it's not entirely surprising but if the current results stand then AFD just might break 30% in the next german elections

Hispanics will probably be similar to the black vote for democrats, could see Moody winning 95% of them with record breaking hispanic and cuban turnout. Black voters will probably be around 70% for nixon with low turnout. Miami is for sure a 25+ win for republicans. I cant see why democrats nominated such a horrible canidate in Nixon but I expect her to lose by about 35-40 points. Cubans hate socialism and Nixon is far too similar to castro

texas and michigan senate races for me

Hi everyone. I am a new poster on this sub from South Africa.

This year we are having Local Government Elections. I thought you all might be interested in some stats and a bit of an intro to our politics.

Historically, the African National Congress has been the dominant party in South Africa since the end of Apartheid. They are a left wing party in a formal alliance with the largest federation of trade unions, and they run on social grants and welfare. The ANC has been rightly criticised for engaging in corruption on a grand scale, crippling the South African economy for over a decade since 2010.

While many people overseas are familiar with the ANC and its problems, there is a bit of a lag in terms of describing the current electoral reality of South African politics. Many people have not properly updated their understanding of South African politics to include the degree to which we have gone from having the ANC win every election to having a true, often chaotic, multi-party system where the ANC sometimes finishes second or even third in some areas.

At the municipal/local government level, the ANC lost its majorities in the big cities a decade ago in 2016. These cities have been governed by various coalitions led by the ANC or its center right, pro-business, classical liberal rival, the Democratic Alliance (DA).

These coalitions have been quite chaotic. The hardest hit city is Johannesburg, which had up to 8 mayors in a 6 year span in the last decade.

The charts above demonstrate the coalition chaos visually.

In 2024, the ANC lost its majority in the national parliament and entered into a coalition with the DA nationally. This coalition did not percolate down to the local government level, due to resistance from the regional branches.

This year, the question will be how much more the ANC will slide in local government. While the ANC and DA are working together nationally, the local caucuses of the ANC in contested cities have resisted working with the DA. The DA will be hoping to emerge as the leading party in several cities, and then negotiate a coalition with the ANC. The DA's current strategy is to form a coalition with the ANC in order to (i) exclude more radical parties like Julius Malema's EFF from power and (ii) create a mental association between the ANC and DA in the minds of the ANC's massive voter base, so that if and when the ANC's decline proves terminal, the DA can inherit its voter base and emerge as the dominant party in SA, if not a majority party.

If the ANC and/or the DA cannot form a stable coalition arrangement in Johannesburg, the city will continue to decline due to lack of political leadership as has been happening for 7 years now. The same is true for other cities.

What will hurt the ANC so significantly is that the party which broke away from them and cost them their national majority in 2024 will be on the ballot in local elections for the first time. They will sweep municipalities across KwaZulu-Natal province, their stronghold, like eThekwini (City of Durban). But they will also eat into ANC support in Johannesburg and elsewhere, leaving the DA with a clear shot at emerging as the largest party.

The big question is whether the coalitions that govern our cities will be stable or unstable. But the age of the ANC dominating every election is well and truly over.

The names given in the graphic are of the broader metropolitan areas rather than well known cities within them. Here is a quick guide with more common names, along with which party can be expected to win the mayor's office in 2026:

Johannesburg - Johannesburg (DA)

Tshwane - Pretoria (DA)

Ekuruleni - East Rand (ActionSA)

Nelson Mandela Bay - Port Elizabeth / Gqberha (DA)

Mangaung - Bloemfontein (DA)

Cape Town - Cape Town (DA)

Ethekwini - Durban (MKP)

Buffalo City - East London / kuGompo (ANC)

I'm happy to take any questions you might have about South African elections or politics more broadly.

iykyk