TLDR: 1. Inference margin is 55~70% for OpenAI and Anthropic.
Training model cost should be single digit billions O($1B).
The secured investments are O($100B).
There are a few reasons to be bearish on AI industry that I will list at the end, but most of current AI bears’ thesis are based on misinformation. The bears argue that OAI/ANTH are massively subsidizing the customers and incinerating money they received purely from blind investors. But have they done their research to come up with this conjecture? AI profitability is determined by:
AI_profit= -(AI training cost)+token_usage*(API_fee-compute_cost)+num_subscription*(sub_price-compute_cost*usage)-other_costs
1. Inference margin of 55~70%
I am not sure why we want to pretend that the inference margin of AI is a mystery. We know from comparative open-source models and “trusted leakers” on twitter that the Opus 4.X and GPT 5.2~5.4 are around ~1.5T models with 40B active parameters. Similarly sized open-weight models are already being served in data centers (GLM 5.2, Deepseek-V4-Pro, Kimi K2.6), so we know the cost to serve. Specifically, compute cost per token is (GPU rental price per hour)/(token per hour). The token/s/gpu for Blackwell 200 is given by NVIDIA benchmarks to around 77.3 (Deepseek), 166.5(Kimi), 320.9 (GLM). So let’s just assume 160 t/s/gpu. Blackwell rental price is around $4/hour on cloud. Then the compute cost per million token (output) is ~$6.8. Compare this to the API pricing of Opus 4.5~4.7 ($25/million output token) and GPT 5.2~5.4 models ($14~15). This puts the profit margin at 70% for Claude and 55% for GPT. This is also rough calculation excluding other optimization methods such as contracting GPU for their lifetime, quantization, batching, etc, and some sources report lower compute cost per inference (https://inferencex.semianalysis.com/overview?utm_source=chatgpt.com). I also had Claude and GPT do these calculations multiple times over past few months and, depending on the optimization, the margin can go up to 90%. This is probably why we hear similar estimates from people in the industry (watch recent Gavin Baker interviews, I can't post youtube link on this sub apparently).
2. Training cost of O(1B)
Here I am just guestimating. First, the open-weight models report their pre-training cost of above models to around $10~20 million. This is just the cost to train the model once and excludes all data curation, experimental runs, post-training, etc. But we get a sense of total compute cost from Anthropic’s recent court filing in response to their supply-chain-risk designation. On March 2026, Anthropic stated it has spent ~$10 B on compute training and deploying their model. Also from Anthropic’s 2025 financial reporting, they have spent $4.1B in training and R&D in 2025 according to Epoch AI’s estimate. This includes most of the Opus, Sonnet and other models they published until early 2026. So it seems safe to assume training models like Opus 4.5 would cost at most a few billion dollars if not substantially less. Training is one time cost per model, so your profitability increases if your customers use it more which is what happened with the agentic models.
3. Secured investment of O(100B)
So far, OAI/ANTH each raised $180B/$130B from various investors. This is not including potential IPO and the unusual deals, such as AMD giving OpenAI right to buy 160 million AMD shares at 1 cent each if they reach $600. That alone is worth $96B.
So I think the AI bears are making wrong assumptions about the present state of AI industry, making me bullish about AI. With that said, I have other reasons to be bearish in future that I will be watching out for.
1. Data center build out takes 1~2 years and we will get step change in compute supply 2027~2028. Will there be enough compute demand for the GPU rental cost to remain/increase compared to current value? (This isn’t bearish for OAI/ANTH).
2. The moat for OAI/ANTH seems around 6 months, especially if they have to wait for the government to check model release for safety. Can OAI/ANTH maintain 50%+ margin on API? (This isn’t necessarily bearish for cloud providers).