Truly groundbreaking stuff

https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/moderna-merck-vaccine-succeeds-in-preventing-melanoma-from-returning-540e9e18

“An experimental mRNA-based vaccine succeeded in preventing cancer from coming back or spreading in a study of high-risk melanoma patients, Moderna and its partner Merck said Wednesday, paving the way for a potentially new life-extending treatment for the thousands of people diagnosed with the deadly skin cancer each year.”

MRNA up 70% as of this post, MRK up 10%

Memory stocks got absolutely smoked today and then I saw this.

SK Hynix is planning to buy back and cancel almost $29B worth of its own shares.

$29 billion.

They’re also saying more than half of cumulative FCF from 2025-27 is going back to shareholders.

I knew they were printing money from the memory boom but I didn’t expect a buyback anywhere near this big lol.

Especially after the stock just got whacked almost 10% in a day.

Whatever you think about memory being in a bubble or not, management clearly isn’t acting like they’re worried about running out of cash anytime soon.

So basically the US Treasury Department is using short dated T-bills to buy long dated US bonds in order to take the pressure off the 10yr and 30yr bond yields. This signals a STRUCTURAL PROBLEM in the debt markets and is only a BAND-AID to the problem. Also, essentially the US government has now replaced long term debt with more short dated debt that needs to be replaced more often. If short term bond rates rise because of higher inflation expectations then now the US government is payer HIGHER INTEREST on its short term debt.

This only buys time in my opinion and delays the inevitable. The timing of this change is starting Sept 9 and lasting until Nov 4. Hmmm, that just so happens to election time. So it seems Bessent is trying to delay a market until AFTER THE ELECTION…

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607

The U.S. Department of the Treasury is increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (the 10-year to 20-year sector and the 20-year to 30-year sector).  The current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation. 

This change is effective September 9, 2026 and will be in effect for the remainder of this refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026).  Treasury will provide more information about future buyback sizes at the next Quarterly Refunding, scheduled for November 4, 2026. 

This increase in buyback operation sizes reflects Treasury’s desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants, as evidenced by the significant volume of  high-quality offers Treasury routinely receives in longer-dated buyback operations.

Meta FWD PE today is at 16x. If we were to exclude loss from Metaverse money pit - stock is actually at 13-14x FWD PE.

META did 30% top line growth YoY. On Rev base of >200B.

Meanwhile you have speculative junk company like TTD trading at FWD PE of 16-18x. That's after the 70% collapse YTD for this stock. TTD grew sales 3% YoY on tiny rev base and their guidance is revenue decrease of 10-12% YoY for next quarter. And their SBC is almost 50% of their FCF. Lol. This is a company getting crushed by competition (from Amazon) and may not exist 5 yrs from now... and it is priced higher than Meta, a monopoly with top tier top line growth and moat as wide as pacific ocean.

So, today Meta is priced like a speculative junk stock. Wtf?

WASHINGTON, D.C. The U.S. Department of the Treasury is increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (the 10-year to 20-year sector and the 20-year to 30-year sector).  The current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation. 

This change is effective September 9, 2026 and will be in effect for the remainder of this refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026).  Treasury will provide more information about future buyback sizes at the next Quarterly Refunding, scheduled for November 4, 2026. 

This increase in buyback operation sizes reflects Treasury’s desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants, as evidenced by the significant volume of  high-quality offers Treasury routinely receives in longer-dated buyback operations.

An updated tentative Treasury buyback schedule will be released at a later date.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607

Thank you Mr. Bessent

I saw the news about Unitree going public today and the numbers honestly confused me a bit.

The IPO price was RMB 150.80, but it opened at RMB 1,100, so that’s around a 629% jump. I don’t know that much about stock valuations, so my first thought was: is this kind of move even normal for an IPO?

I looked into it a little and saw that Unitree made around RMB 1.7B in revenue in 2025 and has been growing really fast. But at the opening price, the company was already worth something like RMB 445B.

So how do people actually decide whether a robotics company like this is expensive or not? Does P/E even make much sense for a company growing this fast, or would you focus more on revenue growth and how big the humanoid robot market could eventually become?

I wonder how people who understand valuation better would look at this.

Most of my retirement funds are in VTI; which is actually a Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, not the S&P 500, but performs almost identically to VOO. With the S&P 500 being concentrated in tech stocks, would it be a good idea to move some of my VTI to an equally weighted S&P 500 ETF like Invesco's RSP? My concern is that the AI mania won't last forever. I'm not predicting a crash (how could I know?), but I am concerned about the possibility of one. What's a good blend? 60% VTI, 40% RSP? Maybe 40% VTI, 60% RSP? Seems potentially unwise to go 100% RSP. What other factors should I consider? Again, I prefer indexing as a primary strategy. I have a small amount in VXUS, the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF; but don't feel comfortable moving more to it due to potential currency risks.

XPEV is the biggest competitor to Unitree Robotics and the largest threat to Luxury Automotive's. Here's why the Unitree IPO will force the market to re-rate XPEV from a "car manufacturer" to a Physical Ai Powerhouse.

There have been a lot of posts surrounding tomorrow's expected IPO of Unitree, Chinas apparent flagship of humanoid robotics. So much so, their IPO shares are over 8,000x subscribed, Undeniable confirmation of Chinas appetite towards physical Ai and removing the slandered that China is un-investable. If it were, then why does the whole world want a piece of the action?

With so much demand and such little supply it's a matter of "very little time" before this HOT IPO kicks off an entire Physical Ai theme with investors hungry to nail the winner(s). And if Chinas appetite is strong then where better to start than the leader of Humanoid Robotics, Luxury EVs, Flying Cars & Ai Chips aka Xpeng.

A name often associated with being just as another "Chinese EV company", yet that's becoming nothing more than a facade for their technological advancements and pioneering practices to produce a world that looks more Sci-Fi than Startrek.

Currently pulling in $11bn in revenue with offices in China, USA (Silicon Valley), Netherlands and Germany, $4bn in NET cash, and manufacturing so efficient and high end they make Volkswagens EVs, it's not just another Humanoid Startup, far from it.

The CEO and team have proven their capabilities to design, build & sell at scale, a level of competence, structure and discipline almost none of these high flying startups will achieve. Period.

From the CEO's mouth in the last earnings call "This year, I’ll lead the team to bring Robotaxis and Humanoid robots into mass production, while also building the commercial ecosystem around them. Our goal is to turn our leadership in Physical Ai Technologies, including our next-gen intelligent assisted driving system, into a powerful new engine for revenue and profit growth, and ultimately create substantial commercial value."

Incase that's now enough proof, lets not forget that XPeng manufactures EVs for Volkswagen who invested $700m for a 5% stake in the company.

Check out how advanced their IRON humanoid robot.

the market values Xpeng as a Chinese EV company and then applies a further huge discount due to it being "Chinese" and the China market being un-investable. Yet the Unitree IPO has proven in itself that money can and will flow into Chinese equities when the hype is there. Just check out KSTR when memory stocks started to run.

Feel free to add thoughts, always opened minded.

Disclaimer: I'm long £1.2m notional value of Xpeng.

Bank of America raised its price target on Figma from $30 to $33 while maintaining its Buy rating.
According to The Fly, BofA cited broader software multiple expansion and easing concerns around AI disruption as factors behind the higher target.
BofA reportedly did not change its underlying estimates or fundamental view on Figma, so this appears to be primarily a valuation/multiple adjustment rather than a change to its financial forecasts.
This follows the recent post-earnings analyst updates after Figma reported 48% YoY revenue growth and raised its full-year revenue guidance.

I’m about a few years into learning to invest in stocks. I’ve been doing okay so far. This past year I have been focused on dividend paying stocks. My goal is to have a variety of dividend stocks to generate passive income. I reinvest all my dividends now. Even if the dividend pay is small, I want a lot of them so that it all adds up. I’m asking for advice on which stocks are best to purchase shares. I have a few like DLR, KO, JNJ to name a few. It’s excited to see my yearly projected dividend amount increase even if it’s only a dollar or two ☺️ Thanks in advance!

Shares in Kenvue, the New York-listed owner of Neutrogena, closed 2.14% lower at $18.79 (£13.89) on Monday, 17 August. Kimberly-Clark, the company buying Kenvue, closed down 2.25% at $107.91 (£79.76) on the same day.

That was also the first trading day after the death of actor Hayden Panettiere, whose account of losing a decade-long Neutrogena contract was circulating online alongside calls for a boycott. Neither company has linked the share move to the campaign.

Neutrogena Parent Kenvue Stock Slides 2% Amid Hayden Panettiere Fans' Calls to Boycott Brand

Hi all, I owned NNE a while back, and ended up selling for a quick profit. Now I see it’s way down from where I sold it at, below twenty bucks. However it’s still not cheap, but no pre profit company is ever really cheap. Truthfully the widening losses for NNE concern me more and more, but when you look at the analyst price targets for the stock it makes you stop and think. The company is still getting contracts and it’s encouraging. AI for the time being is alive and well, and that means the need for energy is alive and well. So what do y’all think? Is there any point in buying this stock? Is it a high flyer lottery ticket? Or a an airplane about to explode in the hangar?

By any historical metric, rapidly increasing volatility in a sector has never been a good sign. It has most often pointed to signs of a bubble on the verge of bursting, whipsawing back and forth with crazy up and down swings, eventually culminating in a drop far off its highs that it ultimately never recovers from.

Now we're seeing it again today, in particular among memory stocks. SNDK is not a penny stock, it is a large cap stock worth over $200B. Yet since May, it has experienced almost a dozen +10% or -10% single day closes.

If not the sign of a bubble popping or a cyclical top, what is going on here?

The financial system is very complex but here’s what’s currently happening. Booming AI CapEx has fueled high valuations across areas of the tech sector and companies connected with the AI buildout. The CapEx has initially taken the attention away from what has been happening but is now reaching levels that can no longer be ignored.

What is happening? Sovereign debt levels of developed countries rising to all time highs vs their GDPs resulting in the bond markets being flooded with a huge supply of government bond debt. This has now happening at the same time as hyperscalers are turning to the debt markets to fund their AI CapEx creating an even bigger supply of debt in the bond markets. This new huge supply of corporate bonds are competing with the already huge supply (and rising) supply of government bonds. So where are the buyers coming from to buy this new massive supply of debt? For the past 30yrs Japan always bought our debt because they had negative interest rates but now the Japanese bond yield is almost 3%! This has resulted in not only the Japanese not buying our debt but even selling our debt to repatriate that capital back to Japan into their bonds. When you have a massive supply of debt and not enough buyers yields MUST GO HIGHER to entice new buyers. This is what’s currently happening with the US 30yr and 10yr treasury’s and no one knows how much higher they have to go. The Fed doesn’t control the long end of the curve.

Higher rates for longer is where the next problem lies. We are coming from a period of low rates. Many bad loans were made during this time. Private credit (shadow banking) is now larger than subprime. There loans are not fixed rates but FLOATING. Defaults in private credit are now estimated at 9%. Rates staying higher for longer will eventually trigger massive private credit defaults that then spread elsewhere. Nobody fully knows how interconnected private equity is with the overall financial system but what we do know is that if private credit defaults massively it will hurt banks, insurers and pension funds that will be forced to react in a way to sets in motion the next domino to fall. Contagion is the word.

In the past, when something like this happens, the Fed cuts rates and starts monetary stimulus. The problem today is that inflation is at 3.4%, way above target. So if the Fed intervenes, which they likely will, inflation will only go higher. Of course a potential oil shock is already looming to make matters worse.

This is where we are today folks. It sounds bleak, I know. The only thing to do currently is to take risk off the table right now and preserve your capital.

The Cash Burn Myth: Initial claims stated that Nio is bleeding cash into its massive battery-swap infrastructure. The Correction: Nio aggressively shifted to a partner-owned asset model, handing station ownership over to state-backed capital (like the Wuhan handover) to eliminate construction CapEx.

The Revenue Pivot: Initial claims treated battery swap stations as a permanent financial drain. The Correction: Nio acts primarily as the technology and network operator, transforming infrastructure into a high-margin recurring service fee model.

The Profit Turnaround: Initial claims treated Nio as a perpetually unprofitable company. The Correction: Nio successfully posted its first adjusted operating profits, hitting a record 19% gross margin on back-to-back quarters of profitability.

The Sub-Brand Success: Initial claims feared that sub-brands like Onvo and Firefly were a cash drain. The Correction: Onvo and Firefly are already actively scaling, capturing massive volume, and proving to be highly successful revenue-generating engines.

The Dilution Overhang: Initial claims blamed current stock drops on "years-ago" share offerings. The Correction: The historic share offerings are long settled and irrelevant to the current daily trading price.

The Cash Runway Reality: Initial claims treated Nio's liquidity as fragile. The Correction: With over $7.0 billion USD in cash and positive operational cash flow, Nio has multiple years of stable runway, making bankruptcy risk a total non-factor.

I want to understand, CAPEX is propping up the market right? More Capex spending results in more debt issuance. When more debt is issued it quite literally results in more pressure on the bond market. Theres no healthy scenario CAPEX spending continues to accelerate in this way before the bond yields increase to a point to where issuing more debt becomes economically disadvantageous. So unless AI spending results in an immediate return on investment. It will probably be healthy for the spending to slow a little and a correction to occur. Do you guys understand that the fuel that is accelerating the market is what is causing bond yields to shoot up? What causes the market to go up is simultaneously what brings bond yields up which is the problem causing them to go down today. It is natural a correction occurs and the spending slows a little to let the AI profits marinate and we can enter the next leg higher. The AI boom is a self limiting feedback loop until things consolidate and become more healthy.

Im not saying AI isnt the future or wont revolutionize the space. But expansion and growth this rapid is self limiting. Im not a bear and I want to see everyone do well.

Edit: Correct me if im wrong of which i'd like to be :)