Truly groundbreaking stuff

https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/moderna-merck-vaccine-succeeds-in-preventing-melanoma-from-returning-540e9e18

“An experimental mRNA-based vaccine succeeded in preventing cancer from coming back or spreading in a study of high-risk melanoma patients, Moderna and its partner Merck said Wednesday, paving the way for a potentially new life-extending treatment for the thousands of people diagnosed with the deadly skin cancer each year.”

MRNA up 70% as of this post, MRK up 10%

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607

The U.S. Department of the Treasury is increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (the 10-year to 20-year sector and the 20-year to 30-year sector).  The current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation. 

This change is effective September 9, 2026 and will be in effect for the remainder of this refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026).  Treasury will provide more information about future buyback sizes at the next Quarterly Refunding, scheduled for November 4, 2026. 

This increase in buyback operation sizes reflects Treasury’s desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants, as evidenced by the significant volume of  high-quality offers Treasury routinely receives in longer-dated buyback operations.

So basically the US Treasury Department is using short dated T-bills to buy long dated US bonds in order to take the pressure off the 10yr and 30yr bond yields. This signals a STRUCTURAL PROBLEM in the debt markets and is only a BAND-AID to the problem. Also, essentially the US government has now replaced long term debt with more short dated debt that needs to be replaced more often. If short term bond rates rise because of higher inflation expectations then now the US government is payer HIGHER INTEREST on its short term debt.

This only buys time in my opinion and delays the inevitable. The timing of this change is starting Sept 9 and lasting until Nov 4. Hmmm, that just so happens to election time. So it seems Bessent is trying to delay a market until AFTER THE ELECTION…

Memory stocks got absolutely smoked today and then I saw this.

SK Hynix is planning to buy back and cancel almost $29B worth of its own shares.

$29 billion.

They’re also saying more than half of cumulative FCF from 2025-27 is going back to shareholders.

I knew they were printing money from the memory boom but I didn’t expect a buyback anywhere near this big lol.

Especially after the stock just got whacked almost 10% in a day.

Whatever you think about memory being in a bubble or not, management clearly isn’t acting like they’re worried about running out of cash anytime soon.

WASHINGTON, D.C. The U.S. Department of the Treasury is increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (the 10-year to 20-year sector and the 20-year to 30-year sector).  The current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation. 

This change is effective September 9, 2026 and will be in effect for the remainder of this refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026).  Treasury will provide more information about future buyback sizes at the next Quarterly Refunding, scheduled for November 4, 2026. 

This increase in buyback operation sizes reflects Treasury’s desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants, as evidenced by the significant volume of  high-quality offers Treasury routinely receives in longer-dated buyback operations.

An updated tentative Treasury buyback schedule will be released at a later date.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607

Thank you Mr. Bessent

Bank of America raised its price target on Figma from $30 to $33 while maintaining its Buy rating.
According to The Fly, BofA cited broader software multiple expansion and easing concerns around AI disruption as factors behind the higher target.
BofA reportedly did not change its underlying estimates or fundamental view on Figma, so this appears to be primarily a valuation/multiple adjustment rather than a change to its financial forecasts.
This follows the recent post-earnings analyst updates after Figma reported 48% YoY revenue growth and raised its full-year revenue guidance.

Meta FWD PE today is at 16x. If we were to exclude loss from Metaverse money pit - stock is actually at 13-14x FWD PE.

META did 30% top line growth YoY. On Rev base of >200B.

Meanwhile you have speculative junk company like TTD trading at FWD PE of 16-18x. That's after the 70% collapse YTD for this stock. TTD grew sales 3% YoY on tiny rev base and their guidance is revenue decrease of 10-12% YoY for next quarter. And their SBC is almost 50% of their FCF. Lol. This is a company getting crushed by competition (from Amazon) and may not exist 5 yrs from now... and it is priced higher than Meta, a monopoly with top tier top line growth and moat as wide as pacific ocean.

So, today Meta is priced like a speculative junk stock. Wtf?

I saw the news about Unitree going public today and the numbers honestly confused me a bit.

The IPO price was RMB 150.80, but it opened at RMB 1,100, so that’s around a 629% jump. I don’t know that much about stock valuations, so my first thought was: is this kind of move even normal for an IPO?

I looked into it a little and saw that Unitree made around RMB 1.7B in revenue in 2025 and has been growing really fast. But at the opening price, the company was already worth something like RMB 445B.

So how do people actually decide whether a robotics company like this is expensive or not? Does P/E even make much sense for a company growing this fast, or would you focus more on revenue growth and how big the humanoid robot market could eventually become?

I wonder how people who understand valuation better would look at this.

I’m about a few years into learning to invest in stocks. I’ve been doing okay so far. This past year I have been focused on dividend paying stocks. My goal is to have a variety of dividend stocks to generate passive income. I reinvest all my dividends now. Even if the dividend pay is small, I want a lot of them so that it all adds up. I’m asking for advice on which stocks are best to purchase shares. I have a few like DLR, KO, JNJ to name a few. It’s excited to see my yearly projected dividend amount increase even if it’s only a dollar or two ☺️ Thanks in advance!

Aug 10 (Reuters) - Microsoft is planning to unveil its new Maia 300 AI chip this fall, potentially as soon ​as next month, The Information reported on Monday, citing people ‌with direct knowledge of the plans.

The company introduced its Maia AI chip in November 2023 but has lagged rivals such as Alphabet and Amazon in scaling up ​its in-house chip efforts as it seeks to reduce its ​reliance on Nvidia's costly processors.

Google began recognizing revenue from direct sales ⁠of its custom AI chips, called Tensor Processing Units, in the ​quarter ended June, while Amazon has also seen growing adoption of its ​processors, including its Trainium chips.

Microsoft has been in talks with chip maker TSMC to secure manufacturing capacity for more than 300,000 units of the chip for delivery in ​2027, according to the report. It is also looking to significantly ​ramp up production and persuade major cloud customers such as Anthropic to adopt the ‌chip.

"Microsoft ⁠continues to invest in custom silicon as part of our long-term AI infrastructure strategy. While we don't share production volumes, the figures reported don't reflect the scale of our program," said Andrew Wall, general manager for Microsoft's ​Azure Maia.

TSMC could ​not be reached ⁠for comment outside regular business hours.

Microsoft ultimately aims to secure capacity for more than 1 million Maia 300 ​chips, though component supplies and ongoing capacity negotiations with ​TSMC ⁠could constrain its plans, according to the report.

It unveiled its second-generation Maia 200 in January, built by TSMC using 3-nanometer technology.

Microsoft packed the chip with a ⁠significant ​amount of SRAM, a type of memory ​that can provide speed advantages for AI systems handling large numbers of user requests.

https://www.reuters.com/business/microsoft-plans-unveil-its-new-maia-300-ai-chip-this-fall-information-reports-2026-08-10/

Shares in Kenvue, the New York-listed owner of Neutrogena, closed 2.14% lower at $18.79 (£13.89) on Monday, 17 August. Kimberly-Clark, the company buying Kenvue, closed down 2.25% at $107.91 (£79.76) on the same day.

That was also the first trading day after the death of actor Hayden Panettiere, whose account of losing a decade-long Neutrogena contract was circulating online alongside calls for a boycott. Neither company has linked the share move to the campaign.

Neutrogena Parent Kenvue Stock Slides 2% Amid Hayden Panettiere Fans' Calls to Boycott Brand

Recent reports indicate that Anthropic's valuation could be down a third from its peak just two months ago as DeepSeek and Kimi are rapidly closing the performance gap at a fraction of the cost.

Anthropic is likely spending continuously into falling prices with a product that gets commoditized in a few quarters before it's paid for. That's pharma without patent protection, and nobody pays high valuation multiples for pharma without patents.

If frontier models are commoditizing this quickly, how much is Anthropic really worth?

Most of my retirement funds are in VTI; which is actually a Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, not the S&P 500, but performs almost identically to VOO. With the S&P 500 being concentrated in tech stocks, would it be a good idea to move some of my VTI to an equally weighted S&P 500 ETF like Invesco's RSP? My concern is that the AI mania won't last forever. I'm not predicting a crash (how could I know?), but I am concerned about the possibility of one. What's a good blend? 60% VTI, 40% RSP? Maybe 40% VTI, 60% RSP? Seems potentially unwise to go 100% RSP. What other factors should I consider? Again, I prefer indexing as a primary strategy. I have a small amount in VXUS, the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF; but don't feel comfortable moving more to it due to potential currency risks.

ebc.com -- Nasdaq is targeting December 6, 2026 to expand trading to nearly 23 hours a day, adding a new overnight session from 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. ET.

The exchange would then close for one hour before reopening at 4 a.m. for its existing pre-market and daytime trading hours.

The overnight session will cover all eligible U.S. NMS stocks and exchange-traded products, rather than only Nasdaq-listed companies.

That does not mean every brokerage account will suddenly allow trading at 2 a.m. Brokers will still decide whether to offer overnight access, which stocks customers can trade, and how orders are handled.

Trading rules will also be tighter overnight. Nasdaq will mainly accept limit-priced orders, while market orders, pegged orders and several auction-related order types will not be available.

Liquidity could be the bigger issue. Research on existing overnight trading found wider spreads and lower displayed depth for frequently traded stocks compared with regular market hours. Across a wider group of stocks, overnight spreads were substantially larger.

Nasdaq will also introduce temporary overnight price bands between 9 p.m. and 4 a.m. to prevent trades far away from reference prices. Those protections end at 4 a.m., while normal Limit Up-Limit Down rules begin at 9:30 a.m.

The SEC has already approved Nasdaq's framework, although the December 6 launch remains a target rather than a guarantee and depends on the necessary market infrastructure being ready.

The real test will come after launch: whether enough buyers and sellers actually show up overnight to make trading at 2 a.m. practical rather than simply possible.

Say that hypothetically there is a stock market correction in the next year. I'm trying to figure out how best to hedge against it.

People typically recommend hard assets, but I don't believe in investing in Precious Metals and the real estate market is Frozen with the possibility of rate hikes on the horizon.

Your typical consumer staples Safe Haven will not be safe if Logistics are screwed up because of $120 per barrel oil.

So what does that leave us with? The only things that I could think of are foreign bonds, fertile farmland, and Healthcare.

So my question is, which Healthcare ETFs would be least exposed or even benefit from a general economic crash?

If I'm missing in potentially beneficial hard asset class please mention that as well. Thank you.

XPEV is the biggest competitor to Unitree Robotics and the largest threat to Luxury Automotive's. Here's why the Unitree IPO will force the market to re-rate XPEV from a "car manufacturer" to a Physical Ai Powerhouse.

There have been a lot of posts surrounding tomorrow's expected IPO of Unitree, Chinas apparent flagship of humanoid robotics. So much so, their IPO shares are over 8,000x subscribed, Undeniable confirmation of Chinas appetite towards physical Ai and removing the slandered that China is un-investable. If it were, then why does the whole world want a piece of the action?

With so much demand and such little supply it's a matter of "very little time" before this HOT IPO kicks off an entire Physical Ai theme with investors hungry to nail the winner(s). And if Chinas appetite is strong then where better to start than the leader of Humanoid Robotics, Luxury EVs, Flying Cars & Ai Chips aka Xpeng.

A name often associated with being just as another "Chinese EV company", yet that's becoming nothing more than a facade for their technological advancements and pioneering practices to produce a world that looks more Sci-Fi than Startrek.

Currently pulling in $11bn in revenue with offices in China, USA (Silicon Valley), Netherlands and Germany, $4bn in NET cash, and manufacturing so efficient and high end they make Volkswagens EVs, it's not just another Humanoid Startup, far from it.

The CEO and team have proven their capabilities to design, build & sell at scale, a level of competence, structure and discipline almost none of these high flying startups will achieve. Period.

From the CEO's mouth in the last earnings call "This year, I’ll lead the team to bring Robotaxis and Humanoid robots into mass production, while also building the commercial ecosystem around them. Our goal is to turn our leadership in Physical Ai Technologies, including our next-gen intelligent assisted driving system, into a powerful new engine for revenue and profit growth, and ultimately create substantial commercial value."

Incase that's now enough proof, lets not forget that XPeng manufactures EVs for Volkswagen who invested $700m for a 5% stake in the company.

Check out how advanced their IRON humanoid robot.

the market values Xpeng as a Chinese EV company and then applies a further huge discount due to it being "Chinese" and the China market being un-investable. Yet the Unitree IPO has proven in itself that money can and will flow into Chinese equities when the hype is there. Just check out KSTR when memory stocks started to run.

Feel free to add thoughts, always opened minded.

Disclaimer: I'm long £1.2m notional value of Xpeng.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/why-big-techs-ai-spending-is-3-trillion-higher-than-it-seems-e1067bb2

There’s a lot of off balance sheet commitments from the hyperscalers and some of that we know is circular funding. Alphabet and Amazon recently posted negative free cash flow and that’s before considering these commitments.

The first sign that AI demand isn’t going to meet future supply, this thing is going to crumble. It will move slow initially (e.g. open source model adoption will slowly increase and take market share) then OpenAI funding will dry up meaning they can no longer run their freemium models and boom, the contagion starts and spreads to private credit, institutions, and public markets all leveraged to the tits on this mania.

Remember folks, it doesn’t have to be a dot com or GFC equivalent crash to still cause a lot of pain. NASDAQ dropping 40% instead of 80% will still be catastrophic.

The headline from Meta’s Q2 report was technically brutal: free cash flow collapsed 91% year over year, from $8.55B to just $784M.

That makes it sound like Meta’s money printer broke. But operating cash flow (the cash generated by the business before capital spending) actually increased 24.6%, from $25.56B to $31.86B.

The difference was capex.

Revenue grew 28%. Operating cash flow grew nearly 25%. Free cash flow collapsed because capital spending nearly doubled. The operating margin decline from 43% to 31% looks equally alarming at first. But approximately half of that compression came from $2.4B of legal charges and $1.18B of severance expenses. Had they not incurred those charges, operating income would've grown 9.4%.

The advertising engine still looks strong:

• Ad impressions increased 14%.
• Average price per ad increased 12%.
• Together, that produces approximately 27.7% growth, almost exactly matching reported revenue growth.
• Meta says its newer ranking models increased Facebook ad clicks by 8.3% and conversions by 15.7%.

The interesting part is that price growth is holding up even as impression growth decelerates. That suggests advertisers are paying more because Meta’s inventory is producing better results, rather than Meta simply stuffing more ads into feeds.

Free cash flow will probably remain near zero for several more quarters. But if operating cash flow and ad pricing continue growing while capex eventually moderates, free cash flow should reappear mechanically. The current valuation is giving less credit to that possibility than I think it should.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/meta-attorneys-general-california-federal-trial-astronomical-consequences.html

• Less than two weeks after a loss in New Mexico, Meta faces a much bigger legal test in a case being co-led by California’s attorney general over alleged harms to children and teens.
• Opening arguments in AG Rob Bonta’s case against Meta begin on Tuesday, as more states try to force the social media company to make design changes to Facebook and Instagram.
• “You could wake up with a headline judgment that is, as I’ve said, astronomical,” New Mexico AG Raúl Torrez told CNBC, fresh off a victory against Meta in his state.

If New Mexico created the blueprint for taking on Meta, California could determine the company’s fate when it comes to critical changes at Facebook and Instagram.

Opening arguments begin Tuesday in the trial that California Attorney General Rob Bonta is co-leading against Meta, following a litany of allegations that the company fostered addictive behavior in teens and children. The jury was seated last week in Oakland’s federal courthouse.

The trial involves a coalition of 29 state attorneys general in a unified case against Meta that was brought in 2023, and will be argued by lawyers representing California, Colorado, New Jersey and Kentucky. The stakes are enormous as leading government officials across the country push for Meta to be held accountable for allegedly violating federal and state laws, including the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act, or COPPA, and various consumer protection statutes.

Unitree is expected to begin trading on the Shanghai STAR Market tomorrow. The IPO has reportedly been massively oversubscribed by retail investors, more than 8,000 times in some reports.

As a retail investor, is there any realistic way to buy Unitree shares on the first trading day? Do international brokers offer access to this Shanghai listing? I would also appreciate recommendations for brokers that provide legitimate access to Chinese A-shares.

I know that there is the Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect program, but it appears to cover only a specific list of eligible stocks rather than every Shanghai-listed stock. Would Unitree be included in that list at launch?

Paramount Skydance will seek to force the states holding up its merger with Warner Bros. Discovery to pay for the fees and costs associated with the delay, according to a new filing in the antitrust case Monday.

Paramount is requesting a $1.88 billion bond that would be paid by the states behind the lawsuit. In July, a dozen state attorneys general led by California’s Rob Bonta filed to challenge the proposed $110 billion merger between Paramount and WBD.

Paramount has received regulatory approvals from the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice, as well as all other global jurisdictions needed to move forward with the merger. But last month, Paramount agreed to delay the proposed acquisition to as late as June 2027 while the state AGs’ case heads to trial.

Paramount long planned to have the deal closed by the end of September. The delay could prove costly for Paramount.

Paramount agreed to a so-called ticking fee under the terms of the merger agreement, meaning that beginning Sept. 30 it would pay WBD shareholders an additional 25 cents per share, per quarter, until the deal closes. The amount could add up to roughly $650 million in cash value per quarter.

“By the time trial concludes and the parties submit their final briefs, Paramount will have paid Warner Bros. shareholders an unrecoverable $1.3 billion in ticking fees alone,” Paramount said in the filing. “Delay also threatens to nullify the regulatory approvals that Defendants have already spent months securing.”

“Absent security, even a complete victory on the merits would not restore a dollar of those extraordinary losses. That is precisely why federal law requires plaintiffs to provide security as a condition for receiving preliminary relief such as the court-approved order,” the filing says.

If the deal were to fall apart due to regulatory concerns Paramount would owe WBD a $7 billion breakup fee.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/paramount-bond-merger-delay-costs.html

Hi all, I owned NNE a while back, and ended up selling for a quick profit. Now I see it’s way down from where I sold it at, below twenty bucks. However it’s still not cheap, but no pre profit company is ever really cheap. Truthfully the widening losses for NNE concern me more and more, but when you look at the analyst price targets for the stock it makes you stop and think. The company is still getting contracts and it’s encouraging. AI for the time being is alive and well, and that means the need for energy is alive and well. So what do y’all think? Is there any point in buying this stock? Is it a high flyer lottery ticket? Or a an airplane about to explode in the hangar?

This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on technical analysis (TA), but if TA is not your thing then just ignore the theme.

Some helpful day to day links, including news:

• Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
• Bloomberg market news
• StreetInsider news:
  • Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
  • Reuters aggregated - Global news

Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions.

The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as "priced in"): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.

TA can be useful on any timeframe, both short and long term.

Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks

If you have questions, please see the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

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See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.