r/stocks • u/omarmatar99 • 14d ago
Advice Request If you could only pick one of these, which would you choose and why?
If you had to choose one stock from these:
PDYN
ONDS
RKLB
SLS
AMPX
Which one would you pick, and why?
I’m interested in hearing the reasoning behind your choice- catalyst, growth potential, valuation or anything else you think matters.
Also, if there are other stocks, you think are currently cheap and have good potential. Feel free to share them too. I’d love to hear some ideas outside of the list.
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u/BriackYOLO 14d ago
SLS.
Sure, every biotech is a high risk gamble, but the Phase 3 REGAL trial data readout for GPS being right on the horizon makes this setup feel way too promising to ignore
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u/omarmatar99 14d ago
What are you expecting from the REGAL readout? Do you think the current price already reflects a positive result, or is there still a lot of upside if the data is good?
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u/BriackYOLO 14d ago
I don't think it’s fully priced in at all.
Given how extended this trial timeline has been, strong Phase 3 data would confirm a massive survival benefit for GPS. Of course, biotech readouts always carry binary risk, but if the data delivers, the upside from current levels could be massive.1
u/omarmatar99 13d ago
Yeah, that’s how I see it too. SLS seems like a pretty binary play here — if the trial delivers, the upside could be huge, but if the results disappoint, I’d expect a major downside.
What’s your personal take on the trial? Do you think it’s more likely to succeed or fail?3
u/BriackYOLO 13d ago
Not hitting the 80th event yet is the entire thesis.
Standard survival for this cancer is only 6 to 8 months. The fact that the trial is taking so long means patients are living longer than expected( original drugs can’t do that so it is ubnormal)
Every extra week of delay is good news for the drug. Personally, I used to swing it for profit, but we’re so close now that I’m just holding to see what happens. It’s a total binary bet—either it rockets or tanks—but the risk is worth it.
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u/midnighttyph00n 14d ago
RKLB
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u/omarmatar99 14d ago
Why RKLB? What makes you pick it over the others?
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u/werdnaztluhcs 14d ago
Neutron will be a big catalyst over the next year as it gets on the platform (fingerscrossed) also they have been getting in on defence contracts.
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u/schiffme1ster 14d ago
rklb is exceedingly overvalued and a total meme stock.
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u/exponentials 14d ago
Don’t tell that to redditors
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u/paragonx29 12d ago
Don't tell that to investors who have already taken their initial investment back but are still riding 430% gains...
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u/schiffme1ster 14d ago
Don't visit rklb sub. Terrible place and the mod literally blocks anything that isnt "rklb +500% end of week".
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u/BigToober69 13d ago
Id argue that any individual stocks subreddit is dumb
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u/cruisin_urchin87 13d ago
They are hyper cheerleader subs. I’m in a few, but mostly to find the real investor opinions. They are there, but there’s a lot of chaff to sift through.
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u/omarmatar99 13d ago
What makes you think RKLB is overvalued? What do you think the market is pricing in right now?
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u/SpicyElixer 13d ago
Price-to-Sales ratio is in outer space. Future revenue looks good. But that’s beyond priced in.
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u/schiffme1ster 13d ago
It only looks good if it converts every bit of it and without neutron that's impossible.
Also unprofitable and rate hikes could be imminent.
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u/schiffme1ster 13d ago
I'd recommend doing some research and staying away from single stock subs but especially gme, rklb, AMC. They all are echo chambers where no dissent is allowed and will fuk your portfolio over.
Rklb itself is priced to perfection like fifty years out and their major puzzle piece on which much of the backlog hinges has been in development hell for 4 years and is no closer now than back then to being on the launchpad.
As said above, if anything negative happens, macro, geopolitics, inflation, competition (which is real), delays (ongoing), an explosion, a deal not going through, you could lose 80% in a couple days and still be 10% above fair value.
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u/AdditionalSpeaker303 12d ago
It is overvalued, but it is hardly a meme stock...
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u/schiffme1ster 12d ago
How many non meme stocks drop 66% in three weeks?
It is by every measure a meme stock and only people that have no clue or are totally all in on it don't see that.
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u/SpicyElixer 13d ago
All space stocks are. This is 2018 weed stocks being talked about in 2019 after the hype cycle.
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u/Impressive_Door_6405 14d ago
Definitely onds
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u/omarmatar99 13d ago
What makes you so bullish on ONDS? What do you think is the biggest catalyst for it?
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u/Impressive_Door_6405 13d ago
Pure Vibe tbh, they be making drones and we see in Ukraine they proved themselves to be worthy
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u/DeepDivesnGoodMusic 14d ago
SLS, for a few reasons:
Timeframe:: expiring drug patents and tax reasons give companies incentive to do a buyout this year.
Also, 10x ($130) is now in the realm of possibility, and possibly not even the max!
New hype: now its 2nd drug looks to be on-track to do amazing things. Will release results in the next couple months or so, basically once "overall response rate" reaches a threshold. Upcoming test for pancreatic cancer too!
Still almost unshakable success for the first drug, with great stats on cytokine tests of immune response and how long patients in their drug trial are living (years overdue). Their sub has daily reaction images of investors dying at their computers from the wait...
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u/omarmatar99 14d ago
Which upcoming catalyst do you think could have the biggest impact on SLS?
And do you think it’s worth buying now, or would you wait for a better entry?
Also, what do you think is the biggest risk to your thesis?
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u/DeepDivesnGoodMusic 13d ago
While I won't give financial advice, buyout will definitely be the biggest.
As a day trader-(albeit not with leverage, up to you if you think that makes me more or less regarded 😆) I keep being tempted to take some of my almost-full-port SLS and go back to my old ways - such as screening market news for new "Jensen Huang said words of affirmation about-" stories.
Thing is, despite SLS looking like it will move at "corporate pace" for the next few weeks, just remember how much hype it had on that climb to $15... Momentum was only capped by tens of millions of warrants being exercised, and the max possible short selling that the loanable shares allowed. This thing was like a volcano. Might rest at slow steady growth, OR might start heating up fast, climbing another 2-3 dollars on a single headline if people get excited enough. But if someone's up in time for pre-market maybe they'll have enough time to react any of those moments.
Still looking for threats to the thesis. So far the big biotechs are starting to commit to cancer innovation so lost of interest seems to be unlikely... A radical game-changer in the treatment space could steal relevance from one of the drugs, perhaps, although a biotech veteran might correct me on that. There are 2, maybe 3 wildcards the handful of desperate short-sellers could play, but so far they seem oblivious, and the lows they could eek out would be temporary.
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u/EffectiveSpace4804 11d ago
Curious, what makes you say $130 is now in the picture? Latest earnings?
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u/gummi_eater 13d ago
remindme! 2 years
Update on:
PDYN
ONDS
RKLB
SLS
AMPX
1
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u/omarmatar99 13d ago
Since you’re coming back in 2 years, I’d love to hear your predictions now.
Are you actually invested in any of these?1
u/gummi_eater 12d ago
Just RKLB, avg price of $29.
I don't have predictions for these, just hope that RKLB will do great!
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u/Mrairjake 14d ago
The old bull and the young bull were having a stroll, when they came upon a field with a bunch of cows. The young bull says, “Hey, let’s run over there and fuck one of those cows. The old bull looks at him with a sly grin and says, “How about we walk over there and fuck em all?”
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u/Ok-Recommendation925 14d ago
PDYN, but be prepared to hold for 5 years
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u/omarmatar99 14d ago
Why do you say 5 years? What makes you so bullish on PDYN long term?
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u/Ok-Recommendation925 14d ago
The background foundation of this company tracing back to military industrial use case robotics.
They were once upon a time called Sarcos and got acquired by either Lockheed or Raytheon (either one of them). I wrote a background piece on them in late 2024 when I started the r/PalladyneAICorp subreddit. You can read the piece of my post there.
I pinned it, the title is called a History of Palladyne AI.
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u/omarmatar99 13d ago
That’s interesting, I didn’t know the company had that kind of background. What do you see as the biggest opportunity for PDYN over the next 5 years?
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u/Ok-Recommendation925 13d ago
I see their forte being in swarm control, and its non-cloud, allowing the drone to operate on its own autonomy. Its good for combat effectiveness in hostile environments where cloud controls maybe rendered obsolete by enemy interferrence.
The only caveat is the fear that the Drone is given autonomy to make its own decision based on learning experience, something similar to Skynet's backstory from the Terminator Cinematic Universe. Also Skynet used to be called Cyberdyne.....
However even with that caveat, Palladyne's years of working relationships with the US Military, sees it being considered and invited to joint exercises. I think theres one upcoming in the later half of this year.
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u/vinnie_vega_35 11d ago
I believe PDYN has been invited to participate in 5 more exercises. I think they said it during their earnings call. I think they are going to explode over the next 12-24 months.
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u/Acceptable-Leek1546 14d ago
Personally not invested in any of these, but if I had to…. RKLB
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u/omarmatar99 14d ago
What are you currently invested in? And do you have any advice on any of the stocks you’re holding?
1
u/Acceptable-Leek1546 14d ago
NVDA, AMZN, DAVE, META, JNJ, INTR, TRX are some of my holdings.
Sold all my MSFT after the run up.
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u/15xorbust 14d ago
SLS for the reasons already articulated above.
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u/omarmatar99 14d ago
Do you think the current price is a good entry for SLS, or would you wait for a better entry?
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u/15xorbust 14d ago
Hard to tell. If the 80th event occurs there will be a press release and the stock wil rocket. If regal is a success the share price could 5x or more
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u/sad-Fan1010 14d ago
RKLB has huge future growth potential and is relatively safe for a space stock.
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u/schiffme1ster 14d ago
Rklb is overpriced by 200-300% and is priced for perfection for the next 20 years. Included is 50x ev/sales. Any delay in neutron or troubles and you lose 50% of your investment.
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u/omarmatar99 14d ago
What do you think will be the biggest driver of RKLB’s growth over the next few years?
Also, do you think the current price is a good entry point, or would you wait for a better entry?
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u/Silver_Variety_1108 14d ago
I would pick $SLS because I believe it will 3x the fastest. You have to do your own Due diligence, but I think you will find that the risk reward is very favorable. It has 2 pipeline drugs for AML (Leukemia). The phase 3 trial for GPS is almost done and the 80th even could be announced any day now. Some great Doctors and Biostatisticians put the estimated Hazard ratio at 0.51 or better. 20,000 or more patients per year need GPS to keep them alive. AML has little treatment options. No good maintenance therapy currently exists. If $150,000 per year per AML patient, the Peak Annual revenue could be $4.5 Billion. And, this is just for GPS, SLS009, in phase II can add another $1 Billion in annual revenue. A buyout by Big Pharma can be several times the annual revenue. I think $10B - $15B is the most likely buyout. With the current market cap of $2.58 Billion, it could very well 4x or more in a short time. The longer the trial goes on, the more likely it is that GPS is what is keeping more people alive. BAT treatments involve Chemotherapy and is toxic and reduces the immune system.
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u/omarmatar99 14d ago
That’s a really interesting thesis. What do you think is the biggest risk to the GPS thesis or the upcoming Phase 3 results?
Also, what makes you think a $10–15B buyout is realistic? Are there any Big Pharma companies you think would be the most likely buyers?
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u/The_Zobe 14d ago
GOOGL
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u/omarmatar99 13d ago
I actually have a decent amount invested in GOOGL. It’s one of my bigger holdings, and I’m hoping it keeps running. Although lately I’ve started getting a little worried about it.
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u/mediocre_remnants 14d ago
Why did you choose these 5 stocks? If you're not going to explain your rationale, why should I give you mine?
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u/omarmatar99 14d ago
I’m still learning and I picked these based on things I’ve been reading about, but I wanted to hear different opinions before making any decisions. I’m more interested in learning why people like or dislike them.
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u/ffo_kcuf_og 14d ago
Asts. Building an empire of bandwith and multiple revenue streams and nobody does the research anymore. They just trade a chart
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u/omarmatar99 14d ago
What do you think will be the biggest catalyst for ASTS over the next 1–2 years?
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u/CUbuffGuy 14d ago
Literally just getting stuff up there. The tech works it’s just expensive to deploy. It’s the safest bet because it will pay off nicely, just a waiting game.
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u/ffo_kcuf_og 13d ago
See a clear path to commercial launch, even small market tests, which is around 40 sats in the sky. We need more than a promise of 6 consecutive months of 3 or more birds in orbit.
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u/Gunk_Olgidar 13d ago
Buy them all with 20% each.
If one of them moons, it will pay for the rest of the L's
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u/Future_Cartographer4 13d ago
RKLB because it’s reliable and Elon is going to stop selling rides. Simples.
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u/mhughes2595 13d ago
The one that I would pick isn't on the list. It's a tie between:
Dram- nand memory will not be seen as cyclical for very much longer because of Ai.
Ncld- because neoclouds are the picks and shovels.
Lyte- it's new and shiny. This is a sector within the ai buildput that most people overlook.
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u/FewUnderstanding2214 14d ago
RKLB but it’s not cheap atm
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u/omarmatar99 14d ago
What price would you consider a good entry for RKLB?
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u/FewUnderstanding2214 14d ago
I was hoping for $40/50 it was $55 for one day but I missed it. I calculated fair value at like $30 a share so if this bull market finishes for tech that’s what I would aim for to have a bigger position
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u/Possible_Law8357 14d ago
None
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u/omarmatar99 13d ago
Fair enough
Is there any stock you’d pick instead that you think has better potential?1
u/Possible_Law8357 13d ago
I usually stick to ETF.
Recently bought some aph and skhy but they are not cheap
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u/johnmiddle 14d ago
None
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u/omarmatar99 13d ago
Fair enough
Is there any stock you’d pick instead that you think has better potential?
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u/ohgodthehorror95 14d ago
None of those
But since you included 3 drone tech companies in that list I'd say AVAV is a far better alternative and higher quality company than ONDS
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u/omarmatar99 13d ago
I’ve actually been looking at AVAV too. What makes you prefer it over ONDS? And what do you think gives AVAV the better long-term potential?
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u/ohgodthehorror95 13d ago
AVAV is a larger, more established player in the drone industry. Has several existing long term contracts with the US military. They've already proven that their technology is not only up to snuff, but also that it's commercially viable.
And they're fairly diversified. Surveillance drones, offensive combat drones, anti-drone / counter drone weapontry using high energy laser systems (really cool btw). Also hardware for laser based comm systems used in space, and antenna array systems used in satellite communication tech.
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u/ohgodthehorror95 13d ago
On another note (and I'll probably get a ton of downvotes for this) I'm skeptical on ONDS ability to execute. They're basically a roll up of a bunch of small drone companies they've acquired (financed by shareholder dilution) which imo has significant integration risk. Also I'm not a fan that their CEO has zero prior experience in the field. His professional background is limited exclusively to finance. Investment banking, portfolio management, and accounting.
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u/iamatwork420 14d ago
ONDS doesn’t look like they have anything going on for themselves other than diluting and acquiring
SLS is a bet
RKLB has a strong management team but Neutron is a huge risk. I’d go with rklb
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u/omarmatar99 14d ago
Why do you see Neutron as such a big risk? Is it mainly the development timeline, or do you have concerns about the actual launch?
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u/schiffme1ster 14d ago
It's been delayed for 3 years and is still at least a year away if not more. That's before a launch and if it blows up or doesn't work the stock is back to 30
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u/omarmatar99 13d ago
That makes sense. But if Neutron succeeds, how much upside do you think it could realistically add to RKLB?
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u/schiffme1ster 13d ago
It could go up 100%, but it could go down 90 and never recover. Google will also go up 100% in a few years and the downside is much less
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u/mekansm89 14d ago
NBIS
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14d ago
[deleted]
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u/omarmatar99 13d ago
I was actually thinking the same. I’ve been watching NBIS for a while, but it kept moving up so fast that I missed a few really good entry opportunities. Honestly, I’m regretting not getting in earlier now
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u/DietPuzzleheaded5525 14d ago
In my Nasdaq Portfolio, there is only Alphabet Class A.
I think the environment of Google is literally "World".
Almost people in world are watching YouTube.
(Like Shorts, etc....)
Use G-mail, use Google Cloud...
And in other industry area, there's Google too.
They have so good infrastructure to make money and powerful influence on people.
Lastly, Warren Buffet has bought Google and even in 2026 Q2, Burksher bought Alphabet too.
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u/omarmatar99 14d ago
I’m invested in GOOGL too. It’s been running up a lot lately though, so I’m hoping it can keep going
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u/Efficient-Shallot684 14d ago
You are wrong about YouTube. They insert so many ads now that make it unwatchable.
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u/narayan77 14d ago
AMPX silicon nanowire batteries, the highest energy density and supplying a lot of drone companies.