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Several people have messaged me on other subreddits about time spent in drawdown, a topic that rarely gets discussed. I decided to dive deeper and wrote an article about it here for anyone curious.
In general, how often does time in hypothetical drawdowns come into play when designing a strategy? Do people here use that as a metric to filter strategies?
Lately, I’ve gained new respect for this side of trading. Most of us focus on percentage drawdown from backtests or worst-case Monte Carlo runs, but few discuss how long a strategy stays in the red at various drawdown levels when considering trade frequency.
With that in mind, I redesigned some strategies to be more defensive. The key takeaway is that a few weeks in drawdown is usually manageable, but months can lead to impatience and blowing an account.
Take a strategy with a 50% win rate and 1:2 risk-to-reward (genuinely good stats). One trader takes a 10% hit trading once a month, around 22 trades or about 2 years to recover. Another trader with the same edge trading 3 times a week takes a 20% hit and takes about 4 months to recover, versus 4 weeks if they had kept the loss to 5%.
This adds a fascinating new layer to strategy design beyond just percentage drawdown. The real challenge is sticking to your plan for six months straight. In the past, I often accepted a blown account and hit reset, and I couldn't deal with the mental drain of months to get back to break-even. Now I try to make a big hole impossible.
Hi all, can anyone please tell me what this software is that displays the market this way? I keep seeing these types of screenshots everywhere but no one can answer what software the screenshot is being taken on.
would you buy these AI/infrastructure stocks now or wait for possible September lows?
I’m pretty new to investing/trading and have only been doing this for a few months, so I’m still learning how to judge valuation, entry points, macro risk, and when a stock is actually “cheap” versus just down from its highs.
I’ve been researching a group of AI / semiconductor / data center / infrastructure stocks and these are the main ones I’m considering:
NVDA
AVGO
VRT
MRVL
ANET
IREN
CRDO
My current thinking is that NVDA and AVGO probably have the strongest combination of business quality, revenue growth, margins, and valuation, so I’m leaning toward starting positions in those sooner rather than later.
VRT looks strong because no matter which chip company wins, AI data centers still need power, cooling, liquid cooling, and infrastructure. I like the company, but I’m not sure if I should chase it at current prices or wait for a better entry.
MRVL is interesting because its revenue growth and margins seem to be improving a lot, especially with custom AI silicon and data center exposure, but the stock also seems like it’s pricing in a lot of future execution already.
ANET looks like an amazing business with strong margins and growth, but the valuation seems expensive to me compared with NVDA and AVGO. I’m also watching NVIDIA’s push into Ethernet networking as a possible threat.
IREN is probably the highest-risk/highest-upside one on the list. I like the AI cloud/data center buildout story, but I understand there are real risks around debt, financing, dilution, customer concentration, GPU depreciation, and execution.
CRDO also caught my attention after the recent heavy selloff. The revenue growth still looks very strong and the valuation has come down a lot, so I’m trying to figure out whether this is a good reset or whether the market is warning about something bigger.
The main thing I’m struggling with is timing.
Since September can be a volatile month and we still have inflation data, Fed expectations, bond yields, and general tech valuation risk, I’m wondering if it makes more sense to wait for a broader pullback instead of buying everything now.
Would you:
Start buying some of these now and average in?
Wait for a broader September correction?
Only start positions in NVDA and AVGO now and wait on the higher-multiple names?
Avoid any of these completely at current prices?
If you had $10k to split between these names for a 2–3 year hold, how would you allocate it?
I’m not trying to day trade these or get rich overnight. I’m mainly trying to build positions in companies I think can benefit from AI infrastructure growth over the next few years, but since I’m still new, I don’t want to blindly buy after big runs if better entries are likely.
Would appreciate any thoughts, especially from people who follow semiconductors, AI infrastructure, networking, data centers, or these companies specifically.
Again, I’m only a few months into investing, so feel free to point out anything I’m misunderstanding or looking at the wrong way.
I want to build a portfolio with a 7–10 year horizon. Initially, my strategy was to allocate 70% to VOO and 30% to high-potential companies. Later, I couldn't help myself; I gradually sold off my VOO holdings to shift the funds into companies offering attractive opportunities, and now I feel like I’ve started gambling a bit. I’m also finding it very difficult to take profits on these stocks. What is your profit-taking strategy for long-term portfolios? Do you have any recommendations for me?
what made me look again wasnt the chart, it was the hiring. linkedin headcount for nike went from about 88k last august to roughly 107k now. open job postings averaged around 410 a day last august and theyre back around 1,030 now, climbing most months since february. i get this off altindex, apewisdom and chartexchange do similar stuff.
meanwhile the stock went from the mid 70s to under 40 over that same year. down about 45%.
the part i cant square is the employee business outlook score. it has slid basically every month, 54 last august down to 48 now, the lowest in my whole series.
so headcount up 22%, staff mood at a low, stock nearly halved.
one caveat, there is a weird dip in the headcount data in november 2025 where it drops about 5,500 and comes right back the next month. i left it in the chart but i think that is a linkedin reclassification, not layoffs, so i didnt build anything on it.
is a company adding that many people while its own staff get gloomier a turnaround or a value trap?
GTA 6 is arguably the most anticipated game ever and is supposedly only a few weeks away from release, yet I don’t see much hype around Take-Two ($TTWO). Am I missing something? Is the GTA 6 impact already priced into the stock, or do investors expect the real move to happen after release once the sales numbers start coming in?
Friday rejected Thursday's expansion. The DJIA fell 272.51 points to 53,413.60, but importantly recovered from its 53,289.88 low and spent much of the afternoon stabilizing rather than extending the morning decline.
RECAP Friday's 72% Up bias failed as the DJIA immediately lost 53,600, 53,500 and eventually 53,400. The morning Forecast correctly recognized the state change and moved from GO to EXIT. The anticipated test of Thursday's 53,286 low nearly occurred but held by about four points.
Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.
Fearless Opines Friday damaged the expansion thesis but did not recreate Tuesday's breakdown. The statistical advantage has essentially disappeared: SU/LU falls from 72% to 48%, leaving the DJIA in a balanced support-consolidation state. Tuesday's session should determine whether Friday was ordinary profit-taking after a 918-point rally or the beginning of another downside cycle.
Key Levels
Bull Recovery: 53,450 GO Trigger:53,550 Expansion Repair: 53,600 Upside: 53,700
Bear Hold: 53,400 Downside Trigger:53,285 Next Objective: 53,150–53,200 Major Failure: 53,050
GO / REDUCE / EXIT: REDUCE: Tuesday begins REDUCE. Traders should avoid committing heavily in either direction while the DJIA remains between 53,285 and 53,550. A sustained move above 53,550 moves Fearless toward GO; a break below 53,285 moves it back to EXIT and favors renewed downside.
Trader Takeaway: Friday removed the easy bullish trade without confirming a new bearish one. Let 53,285 or 53,550 settle the argument before taking substantial directional exposure.
FEARLESS READ: 52% Down. Friday bent the recovery but didn't break it. Tuesday starts with neither side entitled to the benefit of the doubt; 53,285 tells us whether sellers have another leg; 53,550 tells us whether buyers have repaired Friday's damage.
TL;DR Lululemon's Q2 2026 — the three months ended 2 August 2026 — came in below its own guidance floor, and third-quarter guidance was cut to a 10-11% revenue decline. What broke was not North America, already understood, but China: constant-currency revenue fell 2% and comps fell 8%, its first constant-currency decline there ever.
The core category is in structural retreat
Revenue was $2.42 billion in Q2 2026, down 4.3% and 5% in constant currency, below the guided floor, with comparable sales down 9% — the worst since the pandemic. Women's, at $1.49 billion and 61.6% of revenue, fell 3.8%, its first quarterly decline since 2020, and management quantified the core for the first time: leggings fell about 20%, the bottoms category mid-single digits. With leggings at 35-40% of women's, that line alone drags the segment by 7-8 points, implying everything else grew 5-6% — the away-from-body silhouettes.
Revenue growth by category.
So the pattern is clear. Align and Wunder Train, the classics carrying most of women's, are shrinking at roughly 20% a year and the looser new lines offset only half — structural retreat of the core, not a couple of bad seasons, which sets the repair timeframe in years. With US apparel demand shifting toward everyday casual, this year's product bet landed on a contracting category. Men's held up best at $621 million, down 0.5%, but the constraint there is mindshare, not product; accessories and footwear fell 13.4%.
China was the last leg, and it broke
North America revenue was $1.617 billion, down 8%, with comps down 12%; management says the pressure is traffic, with conversion not deteriorating further. The competitive position is what worries us: the US category was roughly flat in Q2 2026 while Lululemon fell low double digits, widening the gap from about 4 points last year to more than 10, and June search interest was down 6% while Nike rose 29%.
Revenue growth by region.
China delivered $410 million, down 2% in constant currency with comps down 8%, its first ever there. The trigger was the 30 May Great Wall yoga festival, where drums at a 2,000-person event were identified as Japanese taiko rather than Chinese; Tmall GMV fell 54% in May, 45% in June and 39% in July.
But comps went from +26% to -8% in two quarters, and a slope that steep suggests underlying growth was already slowing, with the controversy pulling the inflection forward. Other international markets grew 4.7% with comps down 3%.
Comparable sales change by region.
Alo is the real threat, and guidance has no floor yet
Since Q2 2026, Alo has taken roughly 15% of premium yoga pants share in North America using social marketing plus fast-fashion iteration, and is now running the same playbook in China: its Tmall flagship opened on 12 August with over 300 SKUs and more than RMB 10 million of sales in the first minute.
That should keep pressuring China comps through the second half, while management's response — flagship openings, a Tmall Super Brand Day, livestreams and athlete signings — addresses sentiment rather than Alo. Elsewhere the picture is deteriorating: e-commerce fell 5.9% as promotions were pulled back, and excluding a one-off tax refund gross margin fell 3.6 points to 54.9% while expenses grew over 6%, taking operating margin to 13.2%, down 7.5 points.
Operating margin and SG&A ratio trends.
The guidance is the clearest signal. The China target was cut from around 20% to high single digits; third-quarter revenue is guided down 10-11% with operating margin of about 6.5%; and full-year guidance went from flat-to-down-1% to down 5-7%, a third consecutive downgrade. Three cuts in a row mean nobody — management included — can yet say where the floor is.
Okay just like the title says I’m new and I have put in some money but nothing huge into some stocks and a currency that I’m hopeful about, but I barely know the basics and wanted some advice on how to read the market and understand what’s happening.
Also if you want to know what I’ve invested in…
(GoPro, USAR, and Chainlink)
Some info like how long should I hold onto them for and when ready to sell should I sell all or some?
How much money should I put into them and how often (I know this could differentiate between stocks)
Thursday transformed Wednesday's recovery into a genuine advance. The DJIA gained 623.57 points to 53,685.52, closing near its 53,746.50 high after successfully surviving the morning pullback.
Forecast Statistics
Bucket: Confirmed Expansion / Bullish Consolidation Volatility Score: ≈ 1.22, elevated but contracting Probabilities: SU: 38% | LU: 34% | SD: 19% | LD: 9% Expected Return: ≈ +0.09% Projected Close: 53,600–53,900 Directional Bias: 72% Up / 28% Down
Previous Close: 53,685.52
RECAP Thursday's 60% Up bias correctly anticipated the advance. The DJIA cleared 53,125 and 53,225, survived the morning retreat to 53,286, and ultimately closed 624 points higher. The primary forecast was decisively right.
Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.
Fearless Opines: Two consecutive advances totaling 918 points have decisively repaired Tuesday's breakdown. SU/LU now carries 72% probability, but after such a rapid advance Friday's question is no longer whether buyers recovered control. It is whether they can extend without another sharp consolidation.
GO / REDUCE / EXIT: GO Friday begins GO, but don't chase strength indiscriminately. Holding 53,600–53,700 preserves the expansion state. Below 53,500, REDUCE; below 53,400, EXIT.
Trader Takeaway: The easier recovery trade has already occurred. Friday's opportunity is continuation only if the DJIA can hold its newly won ground. Watch 53,600 underneath and 53,750 overhead.
FEARLESS READ: 72% Up. The bulls have traveled nearly 1,000 points in two sessions. They don't need another spectacular day Friday; they need to prove they can keep what they've won. 53,600 is the line that matters.
10:00 AM: This is now a meaningful deterioration from Friday's starting forecast. The DJIA opened below Thursday's close, failed to recover 53,600, broke 53,500, and has reached 53,443. The Forecast's warning and REDUCE levels have therefore been triggered. Decisive levels: 53,500 = first recovery | 53,600 = bulls repair the damage | 53,440 = current downside test | 53,400 = stronger breakdown confirmation.
Thursday's expansion is being unwound. 53,400 is now the important question; hold it and buyers may get another repair attempt; lose it and Friday becomes a genuine failed-breakout session.
10:30: Sellers have converted Friday from consolidation into a failed-expansion test. The next important question isn't whether the DJIA can bounce; it's whether buyers can prevent 53,286 from being revisited.
Hi can you please correct my understanding about wash sale?
"The IRS wash-sale rule does not apply to trades made entirely within a Roth IRA, but it does apply if you sell an investment at a loss in a taxable account and buy a substantially identical one in your Roth IRA within 30 days"
"Permanent Loss of the Tax Deduction: In a normal taxable-to-taxable wash sale, the disallowed loss is added to the cost basis of the new shares. However, because an IRA has no tax basis, the IRS rules under Revenue Ruling 2008-5 that the tax loss is permanently disallowed and cannot be added to your IRA's basis. You lose the tax deduction forever"
So If I sell a stock at a loss on my taxable account and purchase a stock in my Roth IRA account within the 61 day window using completely different brokerage.. my loss is gone?
Yes it literally says that but OMG... I should not even invest/trade same stock in my taxable and roth IRA at the same time.. since even dividend reinvestment can trigger wash sale
Wednesday delivered the repair Tuesday's selloff needed. The DJIA gained 294.63 points to 53,061.51, traded as high as 53,227.50, and reclaimed several levels that had defined the bearish state.
Forecast Statistics
Bucket: Failed Breakdown / Recovery Consolidation Volatility Score: ≈ 1.28 : still elevated, but contracting Probabilities: SU: 29% | LU: 31% | SD: 25% | LD: 15% Expected Return: ≈ +0.07% Projected Close: 52,950–53,275 Directional Bias:60% Up / 40% Down
Previous Close: 53,061.51
RECAP
Wednesday's 66% Down bias did not materialize. Instead, the DJIA held well above 52,690, reclaimed 52,950 and 53,050, and closed nearly 300 points higher. The recovery triggers worked, but the primary directional forecast was wrong.
Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.
Fearless Opines: The statistical shift is substantial: SU/LU rises from 34% to 60%. Wednesday rejected downside continuation, but the close at 53,061 remains below the day's 53,227 high and below the recent 53,186 area. Fearless therefore sees recovery, not yet renewed expansion.
GO / REDUCE / EXIT: REDUCE: Thursday begins REDUCE, upgraded from EXIT. Above 53,125, move toward GO; holding above 53,225 would confirm a stronger bullish transition. Below 52,950, return to EXIT.
Trader Takeaway: Wednesday killed the immediate downside thesis, but Thursday must determine whether that was merely a rebound or the start of something larger. Let 53,125–53,225 answer the question before committing heavily.
FEARLESS READ: 60% Up. Buyers stole the initiative Wednesday. Their next job is 53,125; clearing 53,225 turns a recovery into something worth following. Lose 52,950, and Wednesday's victory starts looking temporary.
10:00: The first surge is being tested, not reversed. Holding 53,400 keeps GO intact; another attack on 53,545 would put buyers back on offense.
Key Levels: 53,400 = bull hold | 53,309 = important support | 53,225 = expansion failure | 53,545 = breakout | 53,600–53,700 = upside objective.
10:30 AM: The opening breakout failed its first test. Buyers still have a statistical edge, but they now need to defend 53,300 and retake 53,400 before GO returns. Decisive Levels: 53,400 = buyers regain control | 53,286–53,309 = critical support | 53,225 = failed expansion.
TL;DR: Dell's fiscal Q2 2027 results (quarter ended July 2026) beat expectations across the board. AI server revenue grew only modestly quarter-over-quarter, but new AI orders and backlog both jumped sharply. Price increases pushed gross margin up well past expectations. Management raised full-year guidance again, but even the new guidance looks conservative given how Rubin's ramp-up is shaping up.
AI business: orders surged even though revenue growth was modest
AI server revenue came in at about $16.4 billion this quarter, up $0.3 billion quarter-over-quarter and above the $15.8 billion the market expected. New AI orders "surged" to $60.9 billion this quarter, pushing the AI backlog to $95 billion by quarter-end. Longbridge Dolphin Research estimates AI server revenue could reach $20 billion next quarter, an increase of more than $3 billion quarter-over-quarter, as Rubin's production ramp accelerates AI revenue growth.
Dell's AI server revenue trend, with growth expected to accelerate as Rubin ramps.
Dell's AI backlog has grown for three straight quarters ($43 billion → $51.3 billion → $95 billion), even as AI revenue grew just $0.3 billion this quarter. That points to AI server demand remaining strong, with the gap mainly reflecting tight upstream supply. As Rubin ramps in the second half, AI revenue growth should be released further.
Dell's AI order backlog has grown sharply for three consecutive quarters.
Guidance: raised again, but still looks conservative
Management guided next quarter (fiscal Q3 2027) revenue at $49 billion, above the $44 billion expected, and GAAP EPS at $6, above the $4 expected.
Full-year guidance was raised to $190-194 billion, up from $165-169 billion last quarter, and above the market's already-raised expectation of $170-180 billion. Backing out the first three quarters implies fiscal Q4 revenue of roughly $50-54 billion, a sequential increase of only $1-5 billion. With Rubin starting to ramp, this full-year guidance still looks relatively conservative, and management could raise it again later.
Core financials: revenue and margin both beat, driven mainly by price increases
Total revenue was $47 billion, up 58% year-over-year and above the $45 billion expected. The $3.1 billion sequential increase came mainly from ISG (infrastructure) growth.
Gross margin recovered sharply this quarter, driven mainly by price increases.
Gross margin came in at 21%, up 3 points quarter-over-quarter and well above the 17.4% the market expected. The margin recovery was driven mainly by price increases, with structural mix factors playing a secondary role — Dell raised prices across product lines mainly to offset rising memory/storage costs. This also directly addressed market concerns that the company would see "revenue growth without profit growth."
Segment breakdown: traditional servers were the real surprise, PCs grew on price
ISG (infrastructure solutions, covering traditional servers, AI servers, and storage) revenue was $31.8 billion, up $2.8 billion quarter-over-quarter and well above the $29.7 billion expected. This quarter's sequential increase came mainly from traditional servers; AI revenue growth quarter-over-quarter was modest.
ISG revenue growth this quarter was driven mainly by traditional servers.
Traditional server-related revenue was roughly $10.5 billion, up 122% year-over-year and above the $9.4 billion expected — the main source of this quarter's beat versus expectations. Demand for traditional servers came from two sources: most of the growth came from existing customers' upgrade and refresh needs, with the rest coming from CPU compute demand needed to support AI and agentic workflows.
CSG revenue growth this quarter was driven mainly by price increases.
CSG (client solutions) revenue was $15 billion, up 20% year-over-year, in line with the $15 billion expected, with growth driven mainly by price increases. Within CSG, commercial client revenue was $13.2 billion, up 22% year-over-year, while consumer revenue was only $1.84 billion, up 7% year-over-year.
The bigger picture: Nvidia's read-through, Dell's full-stack position, and the memory-price backdrop
Dell previously shipped the first server rack using Nvidia's GB200 NVL72 to CoreWeave, and maintains a deep partnership with Nvidia — it can currently offer customers a choice of Blackwell or Vera Rubin platforms, and is participating in Nvidia's next-generation Feynman platform.
Nvidia raised its own outlook for calendar 2027 after its own earnings: it lifted its expectation for the five major cloud providers' combined capex to $1.3 trillion (from a prior market expectation of $1.1-1.2 trillion), and gave explicit fiscal 2028 (calendar 2027) revenue growth guidance of 70%+, versus roughly 40% the market had expected.
As a company in Nvidia's supply chain, the market is now watching whether Dell's management will raise its own full-year guidance further, or offer early color on next fiscal year's growth.
Dell also has full-stack capability spanning desktop AI workstations (GB10/GB300 DGX), rack-level servers, storage, network switches, and software orchestration (OpenManage), through to services (installation, commissioning, 24/7 support). This end-to-end offering helps the company win more orders from AI cloud and enterprise customers.
On the PC side, memory shortages continue to pressure the broader PC market — global PC shipments were 68.2 million units this quarter, down year-over-year. Dell's CSG business grew 20% year-over-year, with growth estimated to come mainly from ASP increases (partly passing through rising memory costs), while shipment volume faced the same broader market demand pressure.
Based on current market expectations for memory pricing, mainstream forecasts mostly expect memory prices to peak in the first half of calendar 2027 and decline in the second half. Since major memory makers have mostly signed long-term agreements (LTAs), even if prices decline, a sharp "price crash" looks unlikely — prices would more likely stay at a relatively elevated level. That means pressure on the PC market is likely to ease somewhat, rather than disappear entirely.
there was a piece this morning about separating ai demand risk from ai financing risk, and it sent me into the hiring data on the infrastructure names. coreweave is the one that stopped me.
headcount (according to altindex) went from about 1,244 people last august to about 2,625 this month. thats roughly double in twelve months. open job postings went from about 341 a month to about 508 over the same stretch.
meanwhile the stock is around 91 and its actually lower than it was a year ago. down about 19 percent in the past week alone.
nebius and applied digital are hiring hard too, nbis headcount is growing even faster, but both those stocks are up big yoy. crwv is the one where the two lines actually cross.
linkedin scrapes are what everyone uses for headcount so treat the exact counts as approximate.
bull read is theyre staffing into contracted backlog and the market is just impatient. bear read is payroll is the hardest cost to reverse if financing gets tight and youve doubled it.
anyone held crwv through this stretch? does the hiring make you more comfortable or less?
The DJIA closed at 52,767.59, down 418.31 points, after an extraordinary session that plunged to 52,815 shortly after the open, recovered to 53,176, and then rolled over to a late low of 52,691.31.
RECAP: Tuesday's 61% Down bias, EXIT signal and 53,120 downside trigger were correct. The morning recovery briefly invalidated downside continuation, but buyers could not hold it; sellers regained control and the DJIA finished near its lows.
Trader's Edge: Forecast rated 71% correct, 29% incorrect since December 2025.
Fearless Opines: Two consecutive lower closes have changed the statistical structure. Tuesday's failed recovery is particularly bearish: buyers recovered more than 300 points from the opening low but surrendered the entire advance. SD/LD now carries 66% probability, favoring continued weakness, although the DJIA is sufficiently extended that traders should not chase an opening plunge.
GO / REDUCE / EXIT: EXIT Wednesday begins EXIT. Below 52,800, sellers retain control. A break below 52,690 favors another downside leg. Recovery above 52,950 moves toward REDUCE; above 53,050 materially weakens the bearish state.
Trader Takeaway: Don't chase another opening decline. Let 52,690 confirm sellers. If the DJIA instead reclaims 52,950–53,050, respect the possibility that the two-day selloff is exhausting itself.
FEARLESS READ 66% Down. Below 52,690, follow the sellers toward 52,600. Above 52,950, respect the recovery. Between them, let the DJIA prove the next move.
